Dynamic Reflections of Crimes,Quasi Democracy and Misery Index in Pakistan

Massive increase in crimes has coexisted with rising inflation and high unemployment for the last couple of decades especially during democratic governments in Pakistan. In this paper, we explore the relationship between crime rate, misery index and democracy in Pakistan from 1975 to 2013. Granger causality test proposed the unidirectional causality running from misery index to crime rate in Pakistan. Estimating the crime function via Pasaran’s conditional error correction model, we found the significant long run equilibrium relationship between Okun’s misery index and crime rate which implies that rising inflation and unemployment rate are the major driving forces towards increasing crime rates in Pakistan. Finally, empirical evidence from Okun’s misery index suggested that people are three times more miserable in quasi democratic periods than that of dictatorship. The Barrow’s misery index model verifies that people are twice worsening in quasi democratic periods. Likewise, reported crimes are nearly twice during quasi democracy than quasi dictatorship. The crime model provided the evidence that people during quasi democratic governments are more likely tending towards crime as compared to quasi dictatorship during the study period in Pakistan. This implicitly advocates the fact that half hearted efforts and ill structured apparatus of democracy can augment the tendency of crime and misery rather than solution of such concerns of the economy.     

Selective Maintenance in System Reliability with Random Costs of Repairing and Replacing the Components

In this paper we consider the problem of determining the optimum number of repairable and replaceable components to maximize a system's reliability when both, the cost of repairing the components and the cost of replacement of components by new ones, are random. We formulate it as a problem of non-linear stochastic programming. The solution is obtained through Chance Constrained programming. We also consider the problem of finding the optimal maintenance cost for a given reliability requirement of the system. The solution is then obtained by using Modified E-model. A numerical example is solved for both the formulations.     

Seasonality and vertical structure of light-attracted insect communities in a dipterocarp forest in Sarawak

Nocturnal flying insects were collected monthly for 13 months using ultra violet light-traps set at various vertical levels in a weakly-seasonal, tropical lowland dipterocarp forest in Sarawak, Malaysia. Abundance, faunal composition, size distribution and guild structure of these samples were analyzed with respect to temperal and vertical distributions. The nocturnal flying insect community in the canopy level was highly dominated by fig wasps (84%) in individual number, and by scarabaeid beetles (28%) in weight. A principal component analysis on monthly catches detected non-random, seasonal trends of insect abundance. The first two principal trends were an alternation of wetter (September to January) and less wet seasons (February to August) and an alternation between the least wet (January to March) and the other seasons. Many insect groups were less abundant in the least wet season than the other seasons, whilst inverse patterns were found in Scarabaeidae and Tenebrionidae. Significantly positive and negative correlations between monthly catch and rainfall were detected only in ovule-feeders and in phloem-feeders, respectively. Delayed, significant negative correlations between monthly catch and 1–3 month preceding rainfall were more frequently detected in phytophages, phloem-feeders, seed-feeders, wood-borers and scavengers. The peak in abundance along vertical levels were found at the canopy level (35 m) for phloem-, ovule-, seed-, root-, fungal-feeders and nectar collectors, at an upper subcanopy level (25 m) for scavengers and aquatic predators, and at a middle subcanopy level (17 m) for ants. Catches at the emergent level (45 m) did not exceed those at the canopy level.     

Traditional kinship foster care in northern Ghana: the experiences and views of children, carers and adults in Tamale

Surveys were employed to explore the experiences of children in care and their carers about traditional fostering. They also examined the perspectives of randomly selected adults in the community about the practice of traditional foster care in the Tamale area of northern Ghana. The 74 participants responded to closed- and open-ended interview questions about traditional foster care. Frequencies and thematic grouping of qualitative responses showed that the need to keep family ties alive was the key reason for placement of children with family and kin. Majority of the children expressed satisfaction with living in foster care, even though they had experienced physical and emotional abuse and intimidation. Although most carers were not formally employed and had little personal income, they were positive about having the care role, but faced challenges in providing for many children in a difficult economic situation. The report highlights the role of reciprocity, altruistic and socio-cultural factors in quality of care, and the potential for the traditional kinship foster care to provide suitable avenues of placement for children as recommended by the Ghana child rights law. It also identifies the need for education for carers around children's needs and Ghana's child rights law.     

Exploring the Predictors of Organizational Preparedness for Natural Disasters

There is an extensive body of research on the determinants of disaster preparedness at the individual and household levels. The same cannot be said for the organizational level. Hence, the purpose of this study is to shed light on the predictors of organizational preparedness for natural disasters. Since leaders of organizations have an incentive to overstate their level of preparedness and because surveys of organizational leaders suffer from selection bias and low response rates, we take the novel approach of interviewing employees about the organizations that employ them. Using an online survey, we collected information from a national sample of 2,008 U.S. employees and estimated the predictors of preparedness at the organizational level. We find, among other results, that organization size (facility level) is a consistent predictor of preparedness at the organizational level. We conclude with policy recommendations and outline an agenda for future research on organizational preparedness for natural disasters.     

Under the skin: Exploring 2-month-olds' thermal reactions in different social interactions with mother and stranger

Physiological adaptations to external stressors can reveal socio-cognitive health in infancy. With the use of thermal imaging and behavioural analyses, the current study examined the arousal markers accompanying infants’ interactions with a familiar and an unfamiliar person. To address the current research question, the mother and a complete stranger interacted with 2 to 3 month-old infants (N= 10, 2 boys)in three different conditions: Neutral, Play, and Compliment. Behavioral analyses showed that overall gaze was longer to the Stranger compared to the Mother independent of condition. Physiological findings showed that skin temperature was significantly higher with the stranger independent of condition. The regions of the face that passed the significance threshold included the maxillary area, the nose, and the forehead. Both behavioral and physiological findings emphasize the ability of the infant to distinguish between a familiar and an unfamiliar person. Most importantly, however thermal imaging has proven to be a promising tool in physiologically differentiating between variable social conditions in very young infants opening up a new experimental portal for identifying healthy physiological development.     

Social resources and Arab women’s perinatal mental health: A systematic review

Background

Women’s mental health in the perinatal period is understudied worldwide and in Arab countries especially.

Poverty and Income Replacement Profile Among EPF Retiree in Malaysia

Social security policies often focus on replacement rates, which indicate retirement income or social security benefits in relation to preretirement income. The higher replacement rate among the pensioners would ensure that the ageing society would have sufficient income to lead a normal life after retirement. This study examined factors that influencing the income replacement rate of Malaysian Employee Provident Fund (EPF) retirees. The analysis was based on a nationwide survey conducted in 2013–2014 among EPF retiree. A logit model was used to evaluate the likelihood of selected socio-demographic and economic factors contributing to income of the retirees. The results indicated that around 62 % of elderly has lower retirement income compared to their preretirement income and it makes them more vulnerable to unpredictable events and financial conditions. The study suggested that the income replacement rate of elderly could be strengthened by investing in ageing workforce, raising retirement age, enhancing educational achievements of low income groups and restructuring employment. These may in turn increase the availability of skilled workers, enhancing the national productivity, increase the income security of retirees, reduce poverty, and develop economic growth of the country.     

Enrolling girls without learning: Evidence from public schools in Afghanistan

While more girls are now attending school in Afghanistan than prior to 2010, there is a lack of evidence on how school attendance is helping their cognitive development. We use data from a large sample of all‐girls state‐funded school students to estimate for the first time the “learning profile” for Afghanistan. Students enrolled in grades 4 to 9 were assessed using the Early Grade Reading Assessment (EGRA) and the Early Grade Mathematics Assessment (EGMA) test items. We find that higher grade progression (particularly in grades 6–9) leads to almost no gain in numeracy (addition and subtraction) skills that should have been achieved in early grades. Similar results follow from the analysis of student performance in the EGRA test, particularly in oral reading fluency (correct words read per minute) and oral reading comprehension (number of correct answers out of 12). These findings warn that simply enrolling girls in school without improving the relationship between grade completion and learning is unlikely to transform the lives of women in Afghanistan.     

Mixed probability models for dry and wet spells

When identifying the best model for representing the behavior of rainfall distribution based on a sequence of dry (wet) days, focus is usually given on the fitted model with the least number of estimated parameters. If the model with lesser number of parameters is found not adequate for describing a particular data distribution, the model with a higher number of parameters is recommended. Based on several probability models developed by previous researchers in this field, we propose five types of mixed probability models as the alternative to describe the distribution of dry (wet) spells for daily rainfall events. The mixed probability models comprise of the combination of log series distribution with three other types of models, which are Poisson distribution (MLPD), truncated Poisson distribution (MLTPD), and geometric distribution (MLGD). In addition, the combination of the two log series distributions (MLSD) and the mixed geometric with the truncated Poisson distribution (MGTPD) are also introduced as the alternative models. Daily rainfall data from 14 selected rainfall stations in Peninsular Malaysia for the periods of 1975 to 2004 were used in this present study. When selecting the best probability model to describe the observed distribution of dry (wet) spells, the Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) was considered. The results revealed that MLGD was the best probability model to represent the distribution of dry spells over the Peninsular.