Stochastic differential equation systems for an SIS epidemic model with vaccination and immigration

Two Itô stochastic differential equation (SDE) systems are constructed for a Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible epidemic model with temporary vaccination. A constant number of new members enter the population and total size of the population is variable. Some conditions for disease extinction in the stochastic models are established and compared with conditions in deterministic one. It is shown that the two stochastic models are equivalent in the sense that their solutions come from same distribution. In addition, the SDE models are simulated and the equivalence of the two stochastic models is confirmed by numerical examples. The probability distribution for extinction is also obtained numerically, provided there exists a probability for disease persistence whereas the expected duration of epidemic is acquired when extinction occurs with probability 1.     

Nonparametric regression method for broad sense agreement

Characterising the correspondence between an ordinal measurement and a continuous measurement is often of interest in mental health studies. To this end Peng et al. [(2011), ‘A Framework for Assessing Broad Sense Agreement Between Ordinal and Continuous Measurements’, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 106, 1592–1601] introduced the concept of broad sense agreement (BSA) and developed nonparametric estimation and inference for a BSA measure. In this work, we propose a nonparametric regression framework for BSA, which provides a robust tool to further investigate population heterogeneity in BSA. We develop inferential procedures including regression function estimation and hypothesis testing. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate satisfactory performance of the proposed method. We also apply the new method to a recent Grady Trauma Study and reveal an interesting impact of depression severity on the alignment between a self-reported symptom instrument and clinician diagnosis in posttraumatic stress disorder patients.     

The Role of Religiosity on the Relationship Between Materialism and Fashion Clothing Consumption Among Malaysian Generation Y Consumers

Religiosity is a significant cultural force influencing various dimensions of consumer behaviours; however, its role in the literature on fashion clothing remains unclear. To rectify this paucity of information, this study explores the relationship between religiosity, materialism and fashion clothing involvement (FCI); and religiosity, materialism and fashion clothing purchase involvement (FCPI). Using a sample of 282 Malaysian Generation Y consumers, it employs a positivist research approach, comprising of a quantitative basis of enquiry, and gathered data via survey questionnaires. The research findings show that religiosity moderates the relationship between materialism and FCI, as well as materialism and FCPI, where an individual’s religiosity is inversely associated with FCPI. Another finding is the importance of FCI in mediating the relationship between materialism and FCPI, plus the significance of mediated moderation and its effects on the relationship between materialism and FCPI. The findings reinforce the role of religiosity in consumer involvement in fashion clothing and fashion clothing purchase trends. Recognition of this significant construct and its importance may enable marketers to develop more sophisticated positioning strategies.     

Poverty and Income Replacement Profile Among EPF Retiree in Malaysia

Social security policies often focus on replacement rates, which indicate retirement income or social security benefits in relation to preretirement income. The higher replacement rate among the pensioners would ensure that the ageing society would have sufficient income to lead a normal life after retirement. This study examined factors that influencing the income replacement rate of Malaysian Employee Provident Fund (EPF) retirees. The analysis was based on a nationwide survey conducted in 2013–2014 among EPF retiree. A logit model was used to evaluate the likelihood of selected socio-demographic and economic factors contributing to income of the retirees. The results indicated that around 62 % of elderly has lower retirement income compared to their preretirement income and it makes them more vulnerable to unpredictable events and financial conditions. The study suggested that the income replacement rate of elderly could be strengthened by investing in ageing workforce, raising retirement age, enhancing educational achievements of low income groups and restructuring employment. These may in turn increase the availability of skilled workers, enhancing the national productivity, increase the income security of retirees, reduce poverty, and develop economic growth of the country.     

Emigration and development: the case of a Bangladeshi village

This article examines the developmental consequences of international labour migration in a Bangladeshi village. The data are from Hoglakandi, a village 30 kilometres south-east of Dhaka, capital of Bangladesh. A structured questionnaire with both open-ended and closed category questions was used among 50 Singapore returnees, supplemented with additional in-depth interviews. International labour migration has often been seen by many sending countries as a short cut to development because of its role in unemployment relief, balance of payments relief, and capital formation at national level. The study argues that the causes and effects of emigration can better be understood only when the process is placed within its local context, since what may prove to be advantageous at the national level may prove to be detrimental to a household or community or vice-versa. It demonstrates how the contribution of labour migration is merely the transformation of labour into a structural component of the international political economy. The Hoglakandi experience reveals that labour migration does not fuel the local economy from an external pipeline of remittances and skill acquisition, rather it drains local resources that retard the development.     

ESTIMATION OF SCALE AND LOCATION PARAMETERS, USING QUADRATIC COEFFICIENTS

A particular linear estimate with three terms approximation using ordered observations is discussed which seems to be simple to calculate. This estimate is applicable for any sample size for some special distributions without considerable loss in efficiency and is, therefore, of practical value.     

The Emerging Perspective of Governance and Poverty Alleviation: A Case of Bangladesh

The majority of the rural people in the developing world are subject to severe poverty, inequality and unemployment. Over the years, a number of institutional approaches have been experimented to eradicate poverty from society. Despite the historical role accorded to the state, the states in many developing countries have not been quite effective in poverty alleviation. Following the global trends many developing country states have created space for the market forces and civil society organizations to contribute to poverty alleviation. This is what is popularly known as the new perspective of governance. This article intends to analyze the new perspective of governance and its role in poverty alleviation with empirical evidence from Bangladesh.

A fuzzy clustering approach to evaluate individual competencies from REFLEX data

We empirically illustrate how concepts and methods involved in a grade of membership (GoM) analysis can be used to sort individuals by competence. Our study relies on a data set compiled from the international survey on higher education graduates called REFLEX. We focus on the subset of data related to the perception of own competencies. It is first decomposed into fuzzy clusters that form a hierarchical fuzzy partition. Then, we calculate a scalar measure of competencies for each fuzzy cluster, and subsequently use the individual GoM scores to combine cluster-based competencies to position individuals on a scale from 0 to 1.     

Stepwise local influence in generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models

Detection of outliers or influential observations is an important work in statistical modeling, especially for the correlated time series data. In this paper we propose a new procedure to detect patch of influential observations in the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. Firstly we compare the performance of innovative perturbation scheme, additive perturbation scheme and data perturbation scheme in local influence analysis. We find that the innovative perturbation scheme give better result than other two schemes although this perturbation scheme may suffer from masking effects. Then we use the stepwise local influence method under innovative perturbation scheme to detect patch of influential observations and uncover the masking effects. The simulated studies show that the new technique can successfully detect a patch of influential observations or outliers under innovative perturbation scheme. The analysis based on simulation studies and two real data sets show that the stepwise local influence method under innovative perturbation scheme is efficient for detecting multiple influential observations and dealing with masking effects in the GARCH model.     

Monetary Policy Announcements and Stock Returns: Evidence from the Pakistani Market

Objective of this paper is to analyze the impact of monetary policy announcements on stock returns. Event window of 31 days and an estimation window of 250 days was constructed. ARIMA model is applied to calculate the estimated returns from estimation window (t ? 250). Abnormal returns were calculated by taking the difference between actual and estimated returns. Then abnormal returns were aggregated as cumulative abnormal returns (CAR). CAR at 30% showed an impact of monetary policy announcements on stock returns. Null hypothesis of zero abnormal returns was rejected since the results were found in critical region under normal distribution. Further, we decomposed the interest rate into expected and un-expected to analyze their impact on stock returns. After checking for stationarity, Engle–Granger co-integration test were applied to check long run relationship between interest rates and stock return. A significant effect of interest rates (expected and un-expected) was observed in the short run. These results are in line with Kuttner’s (J Monet Econ 47:523–544, 2001), Bernanke and Kuttner’s (J Financ 60:1221–1257, 2005), Bredin et al.’s (US stock returns the impact of domestic monetary policy shocks, http://www.ucd.ie/t4cms/wp0604.pdf, 2007) and Ehrmann and Fratzscher’s (Equal size, equal role? Interest rate interdependence between the Euro Area and the United States, European Central Bank Working Paper 342, 2004). The study finds evidence of LR relationship between un-expected interest rates and whereas expected interest rates and stock returns have short term relationship.