"Trust me, I''m a scientist (not a developer)": perceived expertise and motives as predictors of trust in assessment of risk from contaminated land

Previous authors have argued that trust may be based on the extent to which risk communicators are seen as good at discriminating safety from danger, are unbiased in their assessments, and share their audience's values. Residents of two English urban regions rated their trust in six potential sources of information about the risk of contaminated land in their neighborhood (independent scientists; local council property developers; residents' groups; friends and family; local media), and how expert, open, accurate, or biased these sources were and how much they had residents' interests at heart. Overall, scientists were trusted most and developers least, but this was only partly due to their greater perceived expertise. Resident groups and friends/family were also trusted, despite being seen as relatively inexpert, since they scored highly on openness and shared interests, these latter two attributes being more important predictors of trust in individual sources than perceived expertise. We conclude that, where a source is seen as motivated to withhold, distort, or misinterpret information, this will undermine public trust even in apparently knowledgeable sources, hence supporting the view that trust depends on a combination of perceived expertise and perceived motives as complementary processes.     

In Memoriam: Bernard George Greenberg 1919-1985

The bivariate normal density with unit variance and correlation ρ is well known. We show that by integrating out ρ, the result is a function of the maximum norm. The Bayesian interpretation of this result is that if we put a uniform prior over ρ, then the marginal bivariate density depends only on the maximal magnitude of the variables. The square-shaped isodensity contour of this resulting marginal bivariate density can also be regarded as the equally weighted mixture of bivariate normal distributions over all possible correlation coefficients. This density links to the Khintchine mixture method of generating random variables. We use this method to construct the higher dimensional generalizations of this distribution. We further show that for each dimension, there is a unique multivariate density that is a differentiable function of the maximum norm and is marginally normal, and the bivariate density from the integral over ρ is its special case in two dimensions.     

NFL Draftnikology: Euclidean Metrics and Other Approaches to Scoring Ranking Predictions

With viewership of NFL (National Football League) football in the US rising above 20 million, interest in the NFL Draft has also been at all-time highs in recent years. Much of this interest is directed toward the “NFL draftniks” who provide draft predictions—so-called “mock drafts”—leading up to the NFL Draft. Despite increasing interest in “NFL draftnikology,” the scoring methodology used to evaluate mock NFL drafts lags far behind. This study offers a few alternative approaches, including a Euclidean metrics approach to evaluating mock NFL drafts. The usefulness of our methodologies extends to evaluation of economic and financial analysts.     

THE IMPACT OF TELEVISED SPEECHES AND FOREIGN TRAVEL ON PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL

Considerable attention has been devoted in recent years to theuse of political drama by the president, with the most discretionaryforms of drama—speeches and foreign travel—receivingmuch scrutiny. In fact, there has arisen a conventional wisdomwhich asserts that televised speeches and foreign travel bythe president (1) have increased over time, (2) exert a uniformlypositive impact on public evaluations of the president's performance,and (3) can therefore be used as a strategy for influencingthe president's approval ratings, a vital resource for the modernpresident. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate this conventionalwisdom and thus assess the value of televised speeches and foreigntravel as influences on presidential approval. The paper firstdefines political drama and casts the conventional wisdom inthe form of three propositions. It next develops a researchstrategy for evaluating these propositions in an appropriatemanner. Finally, the paper tests the propositions. The resultscast considerable doubt on the conventional wisdom and leadto the conclusion that the use of political drama is not anall-purpose strategy guaranteed to halt declines or replenishsizable losses of presidential approval.     

A COMPARISON OF THE VIABILITY OF MAIL SURVEYS IN JAPAN AND THE UNITED STATES

A comparison of response rates and patterns to a mail surveyconducted simultaneously on random samples drawn from telephonelistings in Seattle, Washington, and Kobe, Japan, is presented.When undeliverable surveys (those for which the intended respondenthad moved or passed away) are subtracted from the original samples,a comparison of the differences in the response rate percentagesfor the two countries is found to be statistically insignificant.Adherence to the theoretical foundation of the Total DesignMethod is claimed to be the principal reason for success inachieving a higher response rate than predicted by Japanesescholars to the mail survey in Japan. These results show thatthere is potential for adapting survey research techniques developedin the United States to non-Occidental settings.     

Comparing products using data envelopment analysis

Using an application of linear programming known as Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), a method is described to compare products which vary in excellence along a number of dimensions, and for each of which there might be a number of associated “costs”. The method is illustrated by comparing published benchmarks of 37 computer printers. Potential uses of a DEA analysis of products might be: to assist corporate buyers who may need to reconcile a diversity of present and future uses in one standardised purchase; in competitor analysis; in determining unexplored market niches; and as a normative model of product excellence against which product purchasing behaviour could be compared.