A numerical nonmetric approach for analyzing time series data

A numerical nonmetric approach to data analysis of periodic series with polytone trend is suggested. Estimation is made of thesmallest number of tone (monotone segments) possible for the trend. The seasonal component is estimated without need for first removing the (estimated) polytone trend. A computer program has been developed which enables analysis of arbitrary series, either by a prespecified length of period or by estimating the period length if not known in advance. Robustness of the proposed approach enables analysis of very short series, series with missing values, and other series with limitations that cannot be easily handled otherwise. In a separate appendix some empirical results obtained by this approach are compared with those from the X-ll program; this appendix will be sent upon request.     

Gini correlation as a measure of monotonicity and two of its usages

In this paper it is shown that the Gini correlation (suggested recently in this Journal) is a special case of a general family of measures of monotonicity. Two new usages of the GINI coefficient will be discussed: 1. for measuring convexity of time series, and 2. for measuring overlapping between groups. The asymptotic variances of the above two measures will be derived.     

Capabilities of PR professionals for key activities lag: Asia-Pacific study shows theory and practice gaps

A number of studies of the knowledge, skills and abilities (KSAs), competencies and capabilities of public relations and communication professionals have been carried out in the USA, UK and other countries. However, most have not engaged to any significant extent with literature in the human resource development field which specializes in defining and developing these characteristics. Also, few studies to date have related the KSAs, competencies and capabilities of practitioners to the key activities of public relations and communication management required for the future. This article presents findings and analysis from a regional survey conducted in 22 Asia-Pacific countries in 2017/18 that compared, for the first time, the capabilities of practitioners in relation to activities identified as the most important over the next three years. This data, and comparison with equivalent regional surveys in Europe and Latin America, confirm a gap in capabilities in relation to key communication activities and suggest a gap in theory as well as practice. The findings and conclusions present a challenge for higher education and professional development for public relations and communication management and point to potential future directions in theory building.     

Bounds for how much influence an observation can have

That outliers or influential observations can affect the results in a regression is well-known. But it is not clear how much influence a specific observation can have on other statistics. In time series, especially in predictive situations, the effect of additional observations is of singular importance. We here examine bounds for the effect of an additional observation on the mean, variance, Mahalanobis distance, product moment correlation, and coefficients of linearity and monotonicity.     

Ready for Qualified Practice? A Comparative Study of Capability for Critical Reflection and Analysis of MA Social Work and MA Step Up to Social Work Students at the End of Second Placement

Social Work education is faced with substantial changes. New programmes like Step Up to Social Work have emerged and were evaluated in relation to intake, programme development and subjective student experiences. The lack of evidence on outcomes of such programmes was addressed in this study. In a comparative study of a MA in Social Work and a MA in Step Up to Social Work, the authors analysed students' capability to critically reflect on and analyse social work practice scenarios at the end of their final placement at one university. The PCF domain ‘Critical Reflection and Analysis’ was operationalised and the study design employed qualitative and quantitative data analysis. Demographic data, academic marks achieved during social work education and written reflections on case vignettes from the two programmes were analysed statistically. The findings suggest that, while there are some differences in outcomes between the programmes, they are not statistically significant. However, reflections on children and family vignettes were significantly better (U = 185, p = 0.008). Thematic analysis revealed considerable variation in the levels of curiosity and critical thinking and those respondents who framed their answers with reference to policy guidance, theory and research often extended their critical thinking.     

Table or Circles: A Comparison of Two Methods for Choosing Among Career Alternatives

A sample of 182 young adults about to choose their college major were randomly assigned to 2 guidance methods aimed at facilitating choosing among promising career alternatives: Table‐for‐Choice and Circles‐for‐Choice. Table‐for‐Choice was perceived as more effective, but individuals' confidence in their choice was higher in the Circles‐for‐Choice condition. More factors that serve to compare and evaluate the options were listed by participants in the Circles‐for‐Choice condition. No interaction emerged between the participant's decision‐making style and the usefulness of the two methods. Both methods were perceived as more useful for participants who were already at the choice stage than for those who were only at the prescreening or the in‐depth explorations stage.     

Written In Blood

Though the heated scientific debate that sociobiology initially generated has largely subsided, speculation on the genetic basis of social behaviors remains a thriving academic discipline and provides valuable content that can be easily translated into compelling newspaper articles, popular magazines, and self-help mass market paperbacks. In Cosmopolitan magazine, statements reflecting the genetic gender-determinism of sociobiology appear in offhand remarks, personal anecdotes, and in lengthy quotations attributed to experts with PhDs. My textual analysis of this sociobiological common sense in Cosmopolitan articles from 1995–2005 represents an in-depth case study of the migration of gender-related science to a popular culture venue for women. I examine the sociobiological theory that norms of female attractiveness advertise reproductive capacity, drawing connections between scholarly works, popular self-help literature, and Cosmopolitan articles. The magazine invokes sociobiological logic to explain and legitimate the laborious techniques of femininity, positioning the female body as a commodity in the marketplace of evolved male desire and reducing it to the signs—real or cosmetically simulated—that reveal the body's underlying reproductive value. I also investigate how Cosmopolitan uses sociobiological common sense about men to construct, exaggerate, and excuse their bad behavior, requiring women to solve or tolerate it. Sociobiology responds to gender inequalities by offering a seemingly rational scientific model asserting that existing gender norms and differences are natural and inevitable.     

Internet Use and Well-Being Before and During the Crisis in Europe

The debate about whether Internet use increases or decreases subjective well-being is growing. However, previous studies rarely explore either this association at the time of financial crisis or the mechanisms by which contextual factors affect well-being. Using the four waves of the European Social Survey 2004–2010, this study examines the association between Internet use and well-being before and during the financial crisis in Europe which started in 2007. To understand how contextual factors explain individual well-being, we use multilevel model. We find that before the crisis, Internet use is not associated with well-being, in contrast with during the period of crisis. Beyond documenting the associations between Internet use and well-being, we find that using the Internet to respond to a situation of unemployment may help individuals for improved well-being. We also find that the density of Internet users in regions across Europe has positive and significant association with well-being. The results suggest that Internet use by individuals and the provision of the Internet access may be beneficial for maintaining well-being especially during the crisis.     

Service Users' Perspectives on the Benefits System in Israel: A Participatory Action Research

This article presents a position paper on Israel's benefits system. It was produced in the framework of a participatory action research with the collaboration of welfare services users and social welfare policy practitioners, academics, social practitioners, and social activists. Some 78 persons living in poverty, from various population groups, were asked, in group settings, to describe their experiences with the benefit system and services, their coping strategies, their perceptions and attitudes towards these services, and their recommendations for ways to improve them. The position paper which emerged from this process served as the basis for discussions between service users, social welfare policy practitioners, researchers, social activists and social practitioners at an academic conference. Issues such as benefits cuts, eligibility, and definitions of poverty are discussed and recommendations are presented.