Testing Supremacy or Inferiority of Multinomial Cell Probabilities with Application to Biting Preferences of Loggerhead Marine Turtles

We propose exact tests for uniform superiority or uniform inferiority of a multinomial cell probability. We extend the approach to testing supremacy or inferiority in multivariate settings. We also show how to perform superiority or inferiority tests in presence of covariates, and discuss the different interpretations of the proposed tests. The tests are illustrated on an original data set on biting behavior of loggerhead marine turtles.     

Criminal Victimization and Crime Risk Perception: A Multilevel Longitudinal Study

In a national sample of the Italian population, surveyed four times between October 2002 and January 2007 (N = 2,008), we performed a multilevel longitudinal study aimed at predicting the increase in crime risk perception as a function of three families of independent variables, respectively lying at the within individual level (direct victimization and indirect victimization), at the between-individuals level (being a woman, being an older person, being a poorly educated person and size of area of residence) and at the ecological level (county’s crime rate, unemployment rate and immigration rate). Direct and indirect victimization, being a woman, being an older person, living in a large town and in a context characterized by high crime and unemployment rates positively influenced the change in crime risk perception, while the other individual and ecological predictors we used in our predictive model did not. Strengths, limitations, implications and future developments of this research are discussed.     

Social and Economic Determinants of Reproductive Behavior Before the Fertility Decline. The Case of Six Italian Communities During the Nineteenth Century

In recent decades, main demographic historical research assessed the importance of bio-demographic components in human reproduction, before the diffusion of birth control and contraceptive techniques. According to this dominant view, before fertility decline, marital fertility was mainly regulated by biological and physiological factors and socio-economic factors played only a limited and indirect role. In order to demonstrate the importance of non-biological components, the present study focuses on six pre-transitional communities situated in different geographic areas of Italy. The work aims to demonstrate how fertility levels could significantly be affected by social and economic factors even in natural fertility populations, before the diffusion of contraceptives. Micro-level data are collected from several historical sources, and discrete-time event history models are applied to female reproductive careers in order to estimate effects of socio-economic status, household structure, and price fluctuations on marital fertility, controlling for several bio-demographic factors. Despite clear differences in geographic localization and environment, marital reproductive behavior appeared to be significantly and constantly affected by socio-economic status, household composition, and price levels in all the investigated communities.     

Elder Care and Migrant Labor in Europe: A Demographic Outlook

This article examines the demand for migrant labor in older‐adult care as one of the key aspects of the aging and migration nexus. It reviews the demographic determinants that have shaped demand for and provision of older‐adult care across Europe. Using the EU Labour Force Survey, new comparative estimates are generated on the employment of migrants in care occupations and the channels of entry into the European labor market. Projections on demand for and supply of care to the older population reveal a future gap in both formal and informal provision. It is shown that, owing to institutional, economic, and social constraints, the significant growth of the care workforce that will be required to meet the future needs of Europe's aging populations is unlikely to be achieved by relying exclusively on EU labor supply. The conclusions outline some implications for future immigration policies.     

Generalized Linear Mixed Models Based on Latent Markov Heterogeneity Structures

We describe a generalized linear mixed model in which all random effects may evolve over time. Random effects have a discrete support and follow a first‐order Markov chain. Constraints control the size of the parameter space and possibly yield blocks of time‐constant random effects. We illustrate with an application to the relationship between health education and depression in a panel of adolescents, where the random effects are highly dimensional and separately evolve over time.     

Promoting a European Dimension of Intercultural Education

In order to obtain an effective implementation into school curricula, intercultural education needs the cooperation of different actors and the sharing of experience between educational institutions, school heads, teachers and intercultural education practitioners. This article presents the outcomes of two seminars organized by the European Federation for Intercultural Learning in 1997 to review intercultural education materials for secondary schools and to promote European cooperation projects. It also discusses a project to adapt an intercultural education handbook presently being carried out in six member states during the 1997–1998 school year. This handbook is intended as a starting point for further international cooperation among European secondary schools in the field of intercultural education.     

The Family Affluence Scale as a Measure of National Wealth: Validation of an Adolescent Self-Report Measure

One explanation for a lack of consistency in SES-health associations in youth is that parent-based income and occupation measures are inadequate. The Family Affluence Scale (FAS), a four-item measure of family wealth, has been developed in the WHO Health Behaviour in School-aged Children Study as an alternative measure. The aim of this paper is to examine the criterion and construct validity of the FAS as a measure of national absolute wealth in 35 countries. A general measure of national wealth, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the year 2001, corrected for Purchasing Power Parity, was used as a gold standard. For the composite FAS index, there was a similar strength in country rank order correlation (0.87) as with GDP, and a Kappa agreement coefficient of 0.57, indicating good criterion validity. FAS index associations with national health indicators were systematically higher than the values obtained with GDP. These features suggest that FAS can be used with confidence in aggregate analyses of HBSC data that focus on relationships between SES and adolescent health.     

Discussing the “big n problem”

When a large amount of spatial data is available computational and modeling challenges arise and they are often labeled as “big n problem”. In this work we present a brief review of the literature. Then we focus on two approaches, respectively based on stochastic partial differential equations and integrated nested Laplace approximation, and on the tapering of the spatial covariance matrix. The fitting and predictive abilities of using the two methods in conjunction with Kriging interpolation are compared in a simulation study.     

Quantile regression for longitudinal data based on latent Markov subject-specific parameters

We propose a latent Markov quantile regression model for longitudinal data with non-informative drop-out. The observations, conditionally on covariates, are modeled through an asymmetric Laplace distribution. Random effects are assumed to be time-varying and to follow a first order latent Markov chain. This latter assumption is easily interpretable and allows exact inference through an ad hoc EM-type algorithm based on appropriate recursions. Finally, we illustrate the model on a benchmark data set.