社会变迁过程中政府能力的政策学解读--基于系统论观点

中国正处于巨大的社会变迁之中，复杂性与不确定性的环境特征对政府能力提出了更高要求。从系统论的视角看，政府能力体现在政府对变迁中社会环境的反应、适应与变革能力。基于系统论的政策学解读，政府能力最终可以归为“制定”和“执行”公共政策的能力。从环境与组织管理的关系出发，围绕公共政策的生命过程，可以分别考察政府在输入、转化、输出三个环节中政策制定和政策执行的情况，进而探讨政府能力提升的路径。     

Development Disparities and Peculiarities: An Empirical Investigation

The vast, sprawling and densely populated province of Punjab, while predominantly agricultural, is marked by considerable regional disparities. An attempt has been made in this paper to see to what extent the differences in the human and social development in its various districts is there. The study exhibits that those regions which are ranked as lagging districts have high disparities in terms of human development and social development with high urban and rural poverty estimates. It is clearly revealed that aggregate national figures mask vast sub regional disparities and speedy development in some regions may not necessarily elevate lagging regions.     

Bayesian Classifiers Applied to the Tennessee Eastman Process

Fault diagnosis includes the main task of classification. Bayesian networks (BNs) present several advantages in the classification task, and previous works have suggested their use as classifiers. Because a classifier is often only one part of a larger decision process, this article proposes, for industrial process diagnosis, the use of a Bayesian method called dynamic Markov blanket classifier that has as its main goal the induction of accurate Bayesian classifiers having dependable probability estimates and revealing actual relationships among the most relevant variables. In addition, a new method, named variable ordering multiple offspring sampling capable of inducing a BN to be used as a classifier, is presented. The performance of these methods is assessed on the data of a benchmark problem known as the Tennessee Eastman process. The obtained results are compared with naive Bayes and tree augmented network classifiers, and confirm that both proposed algorithms can provide good classification accuracies as well as knowledge about relevant variables.     

Bayesian Treatment of Model Uncertainty for Partially Applicable Models

This article discusses how analyst's or expert's beliefs on the credibility and quality of models can be assessed and incorporated into the uncertainty assessment of an unknown of interest. The proposed methodology is a specialization of the Bayesian framework for the assessment of model uncertainty presented in an earlier paper. This formalism treats models as sources of information in assessing the uncertainty of an unknown, and it allows the use of predictions from multiple models as well as experimental validation data about the models’ performances. In this article, the methodology is extended to incorporate additional types of information about the model, namely, subjective information in terms of credibility of the model and its applicability when it is used outside its intended domain of application. An example in the context of fire risk modeling is also provided.     

Peer Pressure and Thai Amateur Golfers’ Gambling on Their Games: The Mediating Effect of Golf Self-Efficacy

Our study hypothesizes that Thai amateur golfers gamble on their game because of peer pressure and their golf self-efficacy. To support our hypothesis, we conducted a study to examine the mediating effect of golf self-efficacy on the peer pressure–golf gambling relationship among 387 amateur golfers in Thailand. Peer pressure was operationally defined as fellow players’ influence on the individual golfer to gamble; golf self-efficacy as the judgment of the golfer’s skills to play golf; and golf gambling as the frequency and amounts of gambling. Regression analysis with bootstrapping was used to test the mediation effect of golf self-efficacy on the peer pressure–golf gambling relationship. The results support our hypothesis; peer pressure predicted golf gambling, and the indirect effect of peer pressure to golf gambling through the mediation of golf self-efficacy was significant. The results support the influence of peer pressure on gambling, and the social cognitive theory reciprocal relationship model.     

郁达夫批评意识探索

作为中国现代文学史上的先驱人物,郁达夫的批评不仅是有自觉意识的,而且还是有明确的文学理想支撑的.从踏上文坛起,郁达夫就意识到批评与文学创作有着密切的关系,他所进行的文学批评、文艺批评无不是有的放矢的活动,他是在自己对文学、对批评的明确看法引导下与时代、与文学潮流展开对话的.率真、宽容、同情是他批评意识的三大特点,这三者与郁达夫接近文学作品并对之作出反应的心理状态息息相关,更应视作郁达夫与作品主体交流时所显示的思考的独特性所在.     

久居中亚的俄罗斯人——对异民族环境的适应问题

许多民族在历史上都有这样的情况本民族的一部分人由于种种原因远离故土,来到陌生的异国他乡,置身于全新的异民族环境中,并逐步适应陌生的环境。沙俄时期,大批俄罗斯人作为“农民殖民者”移居中亚,这些俄罗斯农民移民就属于这样一个特殊的地域群体。他们长期生活在与祖籍地不同的自然、气候条件下,与文化传统相去甚远的异民族居民交往。在对这种全新生活环境的适应过程中,他们与异民族居民建立了一种新的族际关系,并形成了一种独特的族际交流文化。     

Education,identity, and ideology: the Islamic movement and Moslem religious education in Israel

The Islamic Movement, which is called in Arabic Al-harakaat al-islamiyya or Al-haraka al-islamiyya, has, since its foundation in the 1970s, placed emphasis on education, especially the dissemination of the Islamic message. After the movement scored significant successes in local authority elections, its influence increased on the ideological guidelines according to which some of the Arab education system is partially or fully shaped. The article discusses the split in the movement within the State of Israel, and the differences between the southern and northern faction. It also compares Islamic education and Arab education within Israel and abroad in Europe, in countries which have large immigrant Moslem populations.

The education system that the Islamic Movement tries to develop symbolizes the complexity of the relations between it and the state authorities. They are aware that the authorities will not help in differentiation and separation and will not cease from the constant supervision of the movement's educational institutions. Therefore, their choice of a synthesis between formal and informal education or of a partition between pedagogic state education and moral study classes, is a rational, calculated choice, taking into consideration the reality of a cultural – ethnic – national minority.     

国内市场一体化对出口技术复杂度的影响及作用机制

本文从中国经济特有优势出发,系统梳理和归纳了国内市场一体化影响出口技术复杂度的理论机制,并利用中国2003-2016年30个省份（西藏除外）的面板数据,构建中介效应模型,对理论预期进行了实证检验。研究结果表明：国内市场一体化显著促进了出口技术复杂度的提升,并且随着时间的推移,这种促进作用逐渐增强。市场一体化对出口技术复杂度的影响存在行业及区域差异性。市场一体化对技术密集型行业出口技术复杂度的提升作用最为突出。内陆地区的市场一体化系数显著为正,而沿海地区市场一体化的正向影响效应不显著。市场一体化除了直接对出口技术复杂度发挥促进作用,还可以通过技术创新效应、需求驱动效应、制度改进效应等机制促进出口技术复杂度提升,其中技术创新的中介效应最为有效。本文的研究结论对中国推进国内统一大市场建设,实现贸易强国目标和经济转型发展具有借鉴意义。