Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Large-scale Multivariate Monotonic Regression Problems

Recently, the methods used to estimate monotonic regression (MR) models have been substantially improved, and some algorithms can now produce high-accuracy monotonic fits to multivariate datasets containing over a million observations. Nevertheless, the computational burden can be prohibitively large for resampling techniques in which numerous datasets are processed independently of each other. Here, we present efficient algorithms for estimation of confidence limits in large-scale settings that take into account the similarity of the bootstrap or jackknifed datasets to which MR models are fitted. In addition, we introduce modifications that substantially improve the accuracy of MR solutions for binary response variables. The performance of our algorithms is illustrated using data on death in coronary heart disease for a large population. This example also illustrates that MR can be a valuable complement to logistic regression.     

Asymptotic Inference for Waiting Times and Patiences in Queues with Abandonment

Motivated by applications in call center management, we propose a framework based on empirical process techniques for inference about waiting time and patience distributions in multiserver queues with abandonment. The framework rigorises heuristics based on survival analysis of independent and identically distributed observations by allowing correlated waiting times. Assuming a regenerative structure of offered waiting times, we establish asymptotic properties of estimators of limiting distribution functions and derived functionals. We discuss construction of bootstrap confidence intervals and statistical tests, including a simple bootstrap two-sample test for comparing patience distributions. A small simulation study and a real data example are presented.     

Quantification of symmetry for functional data with application to equine lameness classification

This paper presents a study on symmetry of repeated bi-phased data signals, in particular, on quantification of the deviation between the two parts of the signal. Three symmetry scores are defined using functional data techniques such as smoothing and registration. One score is related to the L ₂-distance between the two parts of the signal, whereas the other two are constructed to specifically measure differences in amplitude and phase. Moreover, symmetry scores based on functional principal component analysis (PCA) are examined. The scores are applied to acceleration signals from a study on equine gait. The scores turn out to be highly associated with lameness, and their applicability for lameness quantification and detection is investigated. Four classification approaches turn out to give similar results. The scores describing amplitude and phase variation turn out to outperform the PCA scores when it comes to the classification of lameness.     

Are Irrational Beliefs and Depressive Mood More Common Among Problem Gamblers than Non-Gamblers? A Survey Study of Swedish Problem Gamblers and Controls

This study tests the hypothesis that problem gamblers are more prone to have irrational beliefs and depressed mood than non-gamblers. Irrational beliefs refer to fallacious opinions about probabilities. Gamblers like to believe that chance games (i.e., roulette and lottery) can be controlled and that the outcome of such games is dependent on the patterns of previous outcomes. The empirical material consists of responses to a survey that 302 individuals have answered. Half of the respondents were deemed to be problem gamblers. The results showed that compared to the controls, the problem gamblers were more inclined to show illusion of control due to their skill and reported more depressive mood. The results are discussed in terms of difficulties to know the “hen and the egg” regarding depressive mood, and in terms of intermittent reinforcement to continue gambling.     

Does migration pay? Earnings effects of geographic mobility following job displacement

It has been well established that involuntary job displacement has strong negative effects on earnings. Utilising a large dataset, containing all workers in Sweden who were involuntarily displaced from work through closures or substantial cutbacks occurring in 1987 or 1988, this paper studies whether migration helps mitigate these negative effects. Substantial gender differences in earnings effects of internal migration are found: men generally have positive effects, while the consequences for women are negative.     

SECESSIONS AND POLITICAL EXTREMISM: WHY REGIONAL REFERENDA DO NOT SOLVE THE PROBLEM

This paper shows that an uninformed player can increase his bargaining power by committing to receive information from an expert more skeptical to cooperation. This general idea is applied to a model in which a regional political leader (the expert) influences voting in a referendum on independence by strategically disseminating information about the consequences of separation. I show that this motivates a moderate electorate to appoint a more extreme leader, to receive biased information that increases their bargaining power over the gains of staying unified. However, a trade‐off between bargaining power and precision of information causes inefficient outcomes in equilibrium. (JEL: C73, D72, D82, H77)     

Employment success of social assistance recipients: A provincial analysis by industry

Poverty continues to burden millions of Canadians each year, and social assistance (SA) is one program that provides last-resort financial assistance, conditional upon looking for and accepting work. Using tax panel data of SA recipients from across seven Canadian regions between 2000 and 2018, we model the probabilities of employment success (ES) across industry of employment, SA benefit amounts, unionization, and individual-level characteristics. We adopt an economic stance to explain reliance upon SA, examining the broader macroeconomic indicators of ES, and to demonstrate the factors associated with exiting SA. We find that many SA recipients do not present evidence of recent employment, indicating a disconnect between stated SA program aims and their outcomes. We provide evidence for increased SA benefits and unionization as significant predictors of ES of SA recipients.     

What cultural hierarchy? Cultural tastes,status and inequality

Research on cultural stratification often draws on Bourdieu's misrecognition model to interpret socioeconomic gradients in cultural tastes and participation. In this model, an assumed cultural hierarchy leads individuals to adopt cultural tastes and behaviours whose status is congruent with that of their socioeconomic position (SEP). Yet, this assumed cultural hierarchy remains opaque. In this paper, we derive and test three empirical implications of the cultural hierarchy: (1) cultural activities have different status (recognition); (2) individuals in high and low SEPs have similar perceptions of the status of cultural activities (necessary condition for misrecognition); and (3) individuals prefer and engage in cultural activities whose status matches that of their SEP (status congruence). We collected survey data in Denmark and find that cultural activities differ in terms of perceived status (e.g., opera has higher perceived status than flea market), status perceptions are similar in high- and low-SEP groups and individuals prefer activities whose status matches that of their SEP. These results are consistent with the idea that a cultural hierarchy exists that sustains SEP gradients in cultural tastes and participation.