Demographic implications of the New United States certificates

To assist in developing uniform reporting of vital events among the fifty states, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands, the United States government prepares standard certificates of birth, fetal death, death, marriage, and divorce. These model forms are revised, with the assistance of the states, approximately every ten years. Revisions are now being prepared by the National Center for Health Statistics which will become effective beginning January 1, 1968. Important new source material for demography will be introduced.Most changes will appear in the Standard Certificate of Live Birth and in the Standard Certificate of Fetal Death. An item on education of father and mother will provide detailed national data on education and fertility. The date of the last live birth to the mother and the date of the last fetal death will provide information on previous pregnancy outcome and on child-spacing. The recording of state file numbers for mates born alive and dead in the same delivery will make it easier to match live birth and fetal death certificates for the preparation of detailed tabulations on multiple births. Several new items related to maternal and child health have also been added. No significent changes were planned for the Standard Certificate of Death.The Standard Certificate of Marriage will include as new items the education of the bride and groom, the date on which the last marriage, if any, ended, and specification of the officiant as a religious or civil official. The Standard Certificate of Divorce or Annulment will obtain information on the education of husband and wife, the approximate date on which the couple separated, the mode of dissolution of the previous marriage, and the total number of living children. It is anticipated that most of the new items will be included in the certificates of all the states. The National Center for Health Statistics will provide detailed tabulations related to these items, beginning with data year 1968.Demographers are making an increased use of vital records and at the same time are extending their contacts with state health departments; in some states collaborative projects have been undertaken. Because of the importance of the source documents, which in some cases have not been exploited fully, demographers should increase their contact with the state vital statistics offices which develop, collect, and process the records. By indicating an interest in vital registration and by making their research needs known, demographers can encourage the acceptance of new concepts and collaborate in the improvement of vital records for demographic research purposes.     

The Politicization of Risk: Party Cues,Polarization, and Public Perceptions of Climate Change Risk

Previous research shows that public perceptions of climate change risk are strongly related to the individual willingness to support climate mitigation and adaptation policy. In this article, I investigate how public perceptions of climate change risk are affected by communications from political parties and the degree of polarization among them. Specifically, using survey data from Sweden, Norway, Australia, and New Zealand, I study the relationship between party source cues, perceived polarization, and public perceptions of climate change risk. The results reveal a positive relationship between party cues and perceptions of climate change risk, indicating that individuals adjust their risk perceptions to align with their party preference. Furthermore, a negative relationship between perceived polarization and individual risk perceptions is also discovered, showing that individuals tend to be less concerned with climate change the more polarization they perceive. However, the effect of perceived polarization is found to be limited to more abstract perceptions of risk, while being unrelated to perceptions of concrete risks. Even with some contextual variance, the results generally hold up well across the four countries.     

Integration of Childhood Immigrants in the Short and Long Run – Swedish Evidence1

Immigrant children are often at a disadvantage at school while they adjust to their new environment. It has been found that the age at immigration of 7 or above represents a sensitive period as regards these children’s school performance for two main reasons: they have passed their prime age for language learning, and their acquisition of subject skills is less efficient while they learn to master the new language. Using Swedish administrative data, we track childhood immigrants born between 1972 and 1976 over time from adolescence (at 16) to adulthood (at 30), and study the role of age at immigration for educational and labor market outcomes. We find that immigration at a sensitive age (compared to a very young age) has a strong negative impact on compulsory school performance, but that the same individuals catch up strongly in terms of final educational attainment. In spite of this educational catching up, however, we find a considerable negative impact on earnings for men. We are able to rule out two potential mechanisms behind this puzzling result: It cannot be explained either by an impact on the chosen field of study or on completion time.     

Bootstrap Algorithms for Testing and Determining the Cointegration Rank in VAR Models1

In this paper a bootstrap algorithm for a reduced rank vector autoregressive model with a restricted linear trend and independent, identically distributed errors is analyzed. For testing the cointegration rank, the asymptotic distribution under the hypothesis is the same as for the usual likelihood ratio test, so that the bootstrap is consistent. It is furthermore shown that a bootstrap procedure for determining the rank is asymptotically consistent in the sense that the probability of choosing the rank smaller than the true one converges to zero.     

Statistical Corrections of Invalid Correlation Matrices

Suppose estimates are available for correlations between pairs of variables but that the matrix of correlation estimates is not positive definite. In various applications, having a valid correlation matrix is important in connection with follow‐up analyses that might, for example, involve sampling from a valid distribution. We present new methods for adjusting the initial estimates to form a proper, that is, nonnegative definite, correlation matrix. These are based on constructing certain pseudo‐likelihood functions, formed by multiplying together exact or approximate likelihood contributions associated with the individual correlations. Such pseudo‐likelihoods may then be maximized over the range of proper correlation matrices. They may also be utilized to form pseudo‐posterior distributions for the unknown correlation matrix, by factoring in relevant prior information for the separate correlations. We illustrate our methods on two examples from a financial time series and genomic pathway analysis.     

Incomplete equalization: The effect of tracking in secondary education on educational inequality

This paper tests whether the existence of vocationally oriented tracks within a traditionally academically oriented upper education system reduces socioeconomic inequalities in educational attainment. Based on a statistical model of educational transitions and data on two entire cohorts of Danish youth, we find that (1) the vocationally oriented tracks are less socially selective than the traditional academic track; (2) attending the vocationally oriented tracks has a negative effect on the likelihood of enrolling in higher education; and (3) in the aggregate the vocationally oriented tracks improve access to lower-tier higher education for low-SES students. These findings point to an interesting paradox in that tracking has adverse effects at the micro-level but equalizes educational opportunities at the macro-level. We also discuss whether similar mechanisms might exist in other educational systems.     

News: University prizes

Abstract

Stressful working environments are often assumed to create conditions that may lead to bullying. However, few studies have investigated how factors experienced in the work environment may trigger perpetrators to engage in bullying of others. Drawing on Spector and Fox's (2005) stressor–emotion model of counterproductive work behaviour, the present study investigated the predictive effects of both individual and situational factors as predictors of being a perpetrator of workplace bullying, as applied to a representative sample of the Norwegian workforce (N=2359). Results from logistic regression analysis show that being oneself a target of bullying, regardless of the frequency, and being male strongly predicted involvement in bullying of others. Among the situational factors, only role conflict and interpersonal conflicts significantly predicted being a perpetrator of bullying. The present findings support the notion that bullying will thrive in stressful working environments and thus yield an important contribution in identifying antecedent conditions to counteract the development of bullying at workplaces.     

Job characteristics as predictors of ill-health and sickness absenteeism in different occupational types--a multigroup structural equation modelling approach

The objective of the present study was to test for multigroup invariance in measurement models and structural models between job characteristics, psychosocial intervening variables, health outcomes and sickness absenteeism. Four types of occupation were represented in the study: blue-collar workers ( n = 241), white-collar workers ( n = 209), elderly-care workers ( n = 338) and child-care workers ( n = 336). A first-order, six-factor multigroup confirmatory factor analysis model (i.e. measurement model) composed of two perceived job characteristics ( job autonomy and skill discretion), appraised workload, job satisfaction, stress-related ill-health and sickness absenteeism provided a good model fit. Invariance tests showed that the six-factor model fits well for all occupations. A partially recursive mediated multigroup structural model showed both similarities and differences across occupations as regards the relationships between independent latent variables ( job autonomy, skill discretion), intervening latent variables (appraised workload, job satisfaction) and dependent latent variables (stressrelated ill-health, sickness absenteeism). By comparing a generic model with occupation-specific models across occupations, this study showed that occupation-specific models were more plausible. The results indicate that it is important to examine different occupational contexts in detail to better understand how certain psychosocial factors at work influence strain in different occupations. Since job characteristics can potentially be amended, the findings have important implications for the differentiation of prevention and intervention in different occupations.     

Economic and social leader–member exchange relationships and follower performance

This exploratory study investigated the link between economic and social leader–member exchange relationships and follower work performance and organizational citizenship behavior. Instead of viewing exchange relationships between leaders and subordinates on a continuum from low to high quality, we conceptualize social and economic exchange relationships as relationships with different qualities, rather than different levels of quality. Data from 552 followers and 78 leaders supported our two-dimensional model of leader–member exchange relationships. Furthermore, an economic leader–member exchange relationship was negatively related to both work performance and organizational citizenship behavior. As expected, positive relationships were obtained for a social leader–member exchange relationship and work performance and organizational citizenship behavior. Implications for practice and future research are discussed.