Undergraduate students' attributions of depicted adult-adolescent and adolescent-adolescent sexual interactions

The grayest areas of defining child sexual abuse appear to involve the age and sex of the individuals involved, resulting in a potential for different attributions regarding child sexual abuse across individuals. As a result, this study examines the responses of 262 male and female college student participants after viewing a series of hypothetical sexual abuse vignettes that depicted a 15-year-old victim that neither resisted nor encouraged the advances of a 15-, 25-, or 35-year-old perpetrator's actions. Gender roles and sexual attitudes were examined as potentially important covariates. Using a series of analyses of covariance, female participants gave more pro-victim ratings than male participants, and younger perpetrators were viewed less negatively than older perpetrators. Gender roles and sexual attitudes served as significant covariates. These findings emphasized the need to educate individuals about child sexual abuse and unwanted sexual contact involving individuals under the age of consent.     

Segregation in social networks based on acquaintanceship and trust

Using 2006 General Social Survey data, the authors compare levels of segregation by race and along other dimensions of potential social cleavage in the contemporary United States. Americans are not as isolated as the most extreme recent estimates suggest. However, hopes that "bridging" social capital is more common in broader acquaintanceship networks than in core networks are not supported. Instead, the entire acquaintanceship network is perceived by Americans to be about as segregated as the much smaller network of close ties. People do not always know the religiosity, political ideology, family behaviors, or socioeconomic status of their acquaintances, but perceived social divisions on these dimensions are high, sometimes rivaling racial segregation in acquaintanceship networks. The major challenge to social integration today comes from the tendency of many Americans to isolate themselves from others who differ on race, political ideology, level of religiosity, and other salient aspects of social identity.     

Dynamic Product Positioning in Differentiated Product Markets: The Effect of Fees for Musical Performance Rights on the Commercial Radio Industry

This article predicts how radio station formats would change if, as was recently proposed, music stations were made to pay fees for musical performance rights. It does so by estimating and solving, using parametric approximations to firms' value functions, a dynamic model that captures important features of the industry such as vertical and horizontal product differentiation, demographic variation in programming tastes, and multi‐station ownership. The estimated model predicts that high fees would cause the number of music stations to fall significantly and quite quickly. For example, a fee equal to 10% of revenues would cause a 4.6% drop in the number of music stations within 2 1/2 years, and a 9.4% drop in the long run. The size of the change is limited, however, by the fact that many listeners, particularly in demographics that are valued by advertisers, have strong preferences for music programming.     

Probabilistic feature analysis of facial perception of emotions

Summary.  According to the hypothesis of configural encoding, the spatial relationships between the parts of the face function as an additional source of information in the facial perception of emotions. The paper analyses experimental data on the perception of emotion to investigate whether there is evidence for configural encoding in the processing of facial expressions. It is argued that analysis with a probabilistic feature model has several advantages that are not implied by, for example, a generalized linear modelling approach. First, the probabilistic feature model allows us to extract empirically the facial features that are relevant in processing the face, rather than focusing on the features that were manipulated in the experiment. Second, the probabilistic feature model allows a direct test of the hypothesis of configural encoding as it explicitly formalizes a mechanism for the way in which information about separate facial features is combined in processing the face. Third, the model allows us to account for a complex data structure while still yielding parameters that have a straightforward interpretation.     

How female education affects reproductive behavior in urban Pakistan

Although Pakistan remains in a pretransitional stage (contraceptive prevalence of only 11.9% among married women in 1992), urban women with post-primary levels of education are spearheading the gradual move toward fertility transition. Data collected in the city of Karachi in 1987 were used to determine whether the inverse association between fertility and female education is attributable to child supply variables, demand factors, or fertility regulation costs. Karachi, with its high concentration of women with secondary educations employed in professional occupations, has a contraceptive prevalence rate of 31%. Among women married for less than 20 years, a 10-year increment in education predicts that a woman will average two-fifths of a child less than other women in the previous 5 years. Regression analysis identified 4 significant intervening variables in the education-fertility relationship: marriage duration, net family income, formal sector employment, and age at first marriage. Education appears to affect fertility because it promotes a later age at marriage and thus reduces life-time exposure to the risk of childbearing, induces women to marry men with higher incomes (a phenomenon that either reduces the cost of fertility regulation or the demand for children), leads women to become employed in the formal sector (leading to a reduction in the demand for children), and has other unspecified effects on women's values or opportunities that are captured by their birth cohort. When these intervening variables are held constant, women's attitude toward family planning loses its impact on fertility, as do women's domestic autonomy and their expectations of self-support in old age. These findings lend support to increased investments in female education in urban Pakistan as a means of limiting the childbearing of married women. Although it is not clear if investment in female education would have the same effect in rural Pakistan, such action is important from a human and economic development perspective.     

Cyclicity and synchrony of historical outbreaks of the beech caterpillar,Quadricalcarifera punctatella (Motschulsky) in Japan

Historical records of the incidence of defoliation caused by the beech caterpillar,Quadricalcarifera punctatella (Motschulsky) in northern Japanese prefectures from 1910–1993 were used to characterize the cyclicity and synchrony of outbreaks. Cyclicity and synchrony were quantified using standard Box-Jenkins time series methods as well as spectral analysis and simple Markov models. Statistical analysis of these records indicated the presence of quasi-periodic behavior with 8–11 yr between outbreaks. Outbreaks tended to occur synchronously among different prefectures, though the onset of outbreaks was typically lagged. This study illustrates the use of specific statistical methods for characterizing cyclicity and synchrony from crude records of the presence/absence of outbreaks.     

中国经济转型过程中的人口因素

文章试图对25年来中国经济与人口变化过程尤其是人口因素在经济转变中的作用加以评估。在回顾与总结了这一时期人口变化的主要指标的基础上,然后通过介绍和使用两个“人口红利”的概念与方法,就过去25年中人口变化对中国经济发展的有利作用做出估算,并对未来人口变化,尤其是人口老龄化对经济发展的可能影响与机遇加以评估。最后,对中国近期人口变迁所产生的几项社会后果进行讨论。     

Parental divorce in childhood and demographic outcomes in young adulthood

We investigated the long-term effects of parental divorce in childhood on demographic outcomes in young adulthood, using a British longitudinal national survey of children. Our analyses control for predisruption characteristics of the child and the family, including emotional problems, cognitive’ achievement, and socioeconomic status. The results show that by age 23, those whose parents divorced were more likely to leave home because of friction, to cohabit, and to have a child outside marriage than were those whose parents did not divorce. Young adults whose parents divorced, however, were no more or less likely to marry or to have a child in a marriage. Moreover, even in the divorced group, the great majority did not leave home because of friction or have a child outside marriage.