Loss functions for estimation of extrema with an application to disease mapping

It is often of interest to find the maximum or near maxima among a set of vector‐valued parameters in a statistical model; in the case of disease mapping, for example, these correspond to relative‐risk “hotspots” where public‐health intervention may be needed. The general problem is one of estimating nonlinear functions of the ensemble of relative risks, but biased estimates result if posterior means are simply substituted into these nonlinear functions. The authors obtain better estimates of extrema from a new, weighted ranks squared error loss function. The derivation of these Bayes estimators assumes a hidden‐Markov random‐field model for relative risks, and their behaviour is illustrated with real and simulated data.     

An Empirical Examination of Quality Certification in a "Lemons Market"

This article examines the effect third-party certification has on a market characterized by adverse selection. Using an original data set from the market for young thoroughbreds, we show that certification alleviates problems of adverse selection by examining the effect certification has on breeder decisions to retain or sell horses and the effect these decisions have on observed prices. Data on the racetrack performance of the horses confirm the results.     

Profile of Some Patients Who Prematurely Terminate Analysis

This paper is concerned with cases in which patients who have been well established in treatment decide to end it prematurely. In examining the issue among my patients who left against my advice, I isolated in some of them a number of common traits, of which the existence of a long-standing idealizing transference was central. Four of these cases are presented, including two in which the resistance was successfully penetrated and two in which it was not and the patient left treatment. The definition of premature termination is seen in the context of that of a complete analysis.     

A (macro) sociology of fear?

A proper sociological approach to fear is of both empirical and theoretical significance in understanding late modern society. Normally fear has been explored psychologically, as one of the emotions, but recently a sociology of emotions has begun to emerge. Furthermore, there have also been attempts to examine fear macro‐scopically, arguing for the existence of a distinctive ‘culture of fear’ in contemporary societies. Furedi's argument to this effect is explored here, suggesting the need for a more systematic theorising of fear in its social contexts. Via an analysis of the elementary characteristics of fear, a model is constructed of the ‘parameters of fear’. This model serves as a guide to the classes of phenomena within which fear is constituted and negotiated. It is also used to further examine the virtues and failings of ‘culture of fear’ approaches to fearfulness in modern societies.     

Race and gender as bases of class fractions and their effects on earnings

Maints auteurs ont affirmé que la race et le sexe repreésentent des bases de fractions de classe en ce sens que leur construction sociale permet à des segments d'une classe de se constituer à partir de caractéristiques liées à la race et au sexe. Cependant, les études ernpiriques antérieures tendent à considérer seulernent la race et le sexe comme des facteurs de fractionnernent au sein de la classe ouvrière seulement. À l'aide des données du recensement de 1986, cette communication analyse lea effets interactifs de la race et du sexe sur le revenu considéré comme facteur de fractionnement des classes. Les recherches de l'auteur indiquent que les effets produits par le groupement par race et par sexe sont inégaux en ce qui trait au revenu, les hommes gagnant davantage que les femmes tout en étant davantage ‘fractionnés’ par le revenu que les femmes. Lorsqu'on fait abstraction des différences de revenu entre classes, la race et le sexe demeurent des facteurs explicatifs importants du niveau de revenu, bien que leurs effets soient plus marqués chez les cadres, les professionnels et les ouvriers. L'écart entre les sexes est plus prononcé, mais la race demeure importante comme facteur de fractionnement au niveau des revenus des homrnes, měme après correction pour tenir cornpte d'autres variables. L'auteur affirme que l'assimilation des relations de sexe et de race aux relations entre classes est insatisfaisante et qu'il existe de sérieuses considérations théoriques pour considérer que les causes des inégalités entre les sexes et les races se trouvent non seulement à l'intérieur du domaine de la production, mais également à l'extérieur de celui-ci. The literature has argued that race and gender are bases of class fractions in that their social construction enables segments of a class to be constituted on racialized and gender-linked characteristics. However, previous empirical works tend to consider race or gender as fractionalizing the working class only. Using the 1986 Census data, this paper analyses the interactive effects of race and gender on earnings as grounds of fractionalizing classes. The findings indicate that race and gender groupings produce unequal effects on earnings: males have an income advantage over females, but race fractionalizes the earnings of men to a greater extent than for women. When inter-class differences in earnings are removed, race and gender remain important in explaining earnings, although their effects are stronger among the managerial, the professsional, and the working class. The gender gap is more pronounced, but race remains important in fractionalizing the earnings of men even after controlling for other variables. The paper argues that it is insufficient to subsume gender and race relations under class relations, and that there are compelling theoretical grounds to consider gender and race inequality as having roots both within and outside the sphere of production.     

Forced to work and liberated from work

The work-welfare nexus is essential in all social policy regimes. The question is in what situations individuals should be entitled to social welfare benefits and in which situations they should be obliged to work. Social welfare law and administrative practices define mechanisms that separate the deserving poor from people able to work. This article analyses the functions and character of these "separation mechanisms" in Sweden during three periods in history: a) in rural society in the late 19th century; b) in industrial society during the successful years of the Swedish model from World War II until the late 1970s; and c) the present, including the period of welfare retrenchment and reconsideration since the early 1980s. The conclusion is that Swedish social policy has always been strongly work-oriented, but the specific form and content of the work ethic has varied under the influence of different ideologies and handled in different social policy institutions. Under specific conditions the work line has been either generous or restrictive and it has been based on structural attempts to improve the opportunities to work as well as on attempts to strongly pressure the individual to work. The work line of today is seen as an interesting attempt to combine an effort to create good work through improved work conditions and an effort to reinforce elements of work enforcement in the social insurance system.     

Regulating Land Development: Local Market Structures and Structured Markets

Current rounds of economic restructuring together with the changing priorities accorded to agricultural production are leading to significant shifts in rural property and tenure relations. This paper analyzes these processes with reference to rural Britain; it reports on empirical evidence collected in the county of Buckinghamshire in southeast England. Two significant types of new rural land development are considered—small-scale industrial units arising out of the conversion of agricultural buildings and golf course developments and their ancillary leisure-based activities. Post-war productionist forms of regulation and particularly established types of agricultural tenure are now being modified by farmers and nonagricultural interests committed to the development of rural land. New demands and market structures are requiring more diversity and flexibility by which land is owned, occupied, and used. These emergent, more flexible macro tenures are based on new sets of social and political alliances between farmers, developers, and local planning systems. Agricultural land is increasingly being viewed as a capital rather than as a productive asset associated with more volatile and regionally defined markets whose regulation is formative.     

Mapping water quality by local scoring

The mean density of bacteria in a water body is commonly monitored using quantal assay. This paper describes the use of local scoring in estimating the spatial distribution of mean density from quantal assay results at a set of point locations. An application to estimating the mean density of fecal conform bacteria in a coastal pond is presented. Model diagnostics based on a parametric bootstrap are also presented.