Extending Bayesian back-calculation to estimate age and time specific HIV incidence

Lifetime Data Analysis - CD4-based multi-state back-calculation methods are key for monitoring the HIV epidemic, providing estimates of HIV incidence and diagnosis rates by disentangling their...     

Cross Validation of the Gambling Problem Severity Subscale of the Canadian Adolescent Gambling Index (CAGI/GPSS) on a Sample of Ontario High School Students

This paper reports on the cross validation of the Gambling Problem Severity Subscale of the Canadian Adolescent Gambling Index (CAGI/GPSS). The CAGI/GPSS was included in a large school based drug use and health survey conducted in 2015. Data from students in grades 9–12 (ages 13–20 years) derived from the (N = 3369 students). The CAGI/GPSS produced an alpha of 0.789. A principle component analysis revealed two eigenvalues greater than one. An oblique rotation revealed these components to represent consequences and over involvement. The CAGI/GPSS indicated that 1% of the students fell into the “red” category indicating a severe problem and an additional 3.3% scored in the “yellow” category indicating low to moderate problems. The CAGI/GPSS was shown to be significantly correlated with gambling frequency (r = 0.36), largest expenditure (r = 0.37), sex (more likely to be male) (r = ?0.19), lower school marks (r = ?0.07), hazardous drinking, (r = 0.16), problem video game play (r = 0.16), as well as substance abuse. The CAGI/GPSS was cross validated using a shorted version of the short SOGS, r = 0.48. In addition the CAGI/GPSS and short SOGS produced very similar patterns of correlations results. The results support the validity and reliability of the CAGI/GPSS as a measure of gambling problems among adolescents.     

New Price,New Hope? An Examination of the Effects of Doubling the Ticket Price in UK Lotto

The UK Lotto game was introduced in November 1994 with a standard 6/49 format and an entry fee of £1 per ticket. After several years, revenue began to fall despite extensive publicity and a variety of inducements. By 2013, nominal weekly revenue was less than half the 1995 level. In October 2013, the operator doubled the price of a ticket to £2 and made a number of changes to the pay-out structure of smaller prizes. The intent of the changes was to reverse the long downward trend in game revenue by encouraging higher jackpots and offering more pay-out opportunities for each ticket. We use draw by draw revenue and other data to evaluate how players responded to these changes and find that, while ticket sales fell dramatically, total revenue rose following the changes. Primarily this appears to have been the consequence of increased frequency of rollovers (and therefore of more frequent high jackpot draws) rather than ticket price inelasticity. However, although there was a short-term gain in revenue, the changes did not arrest, and indeed seem to have accentuated, the long-run trend decrease in the revenue generated by the game.     

Lessons from the Niagara Movement: Prosopography and Discursive Protest

This article uses a case study of the Niagara Movement, which functioned from 1905–1910, to demonstrate that the use of prosopography (collective biographies) is a propitious methodological tool, particularly for those interested in the social-psychological analysis of movement actors within networks. I present a prosopography of the founders of the Niagara Movement. Learning more about the identity of political actors provides clues to the ways strategic choices are made and how collective action frames are developed. The prosopography of the Niagara Movement also provides theoretical insights into discursive processes that are often lost in studies of long movement trajectories. I analyze potential explanations for the absence of organizations such as the Niagara Movement from the civil rights canon, and, through an analysis of talk as a resource for mobilization, pinpoint directions for future researchers interested in micro theories of mobilization.     

Identifying Mental Disorder from the Faces of Women with Borderline Personality Disorder

Although appearance-based cues can help to diagnose physical illness, visual manifestations of mental disorder may be more elusive. Here, we investigated whether individuals could distinguish women with a serious mental disorder (borderline personality disorder) from demographically- and IQ-matched non-psychiatric controls. Participants rated mentally ill targets as more likely to have a mental disorder from photos more accurately than chance, despite not believing that such judgments were possible. The configuration of facial cues played an important role in these judgments, as interfering with the spatial relationships between facial features reduced participants’ accuracy to chance guessing. Further investigation showed similar results when participants rated the targets for specific mental disorders (borderline personality disorder, major depressive disorder) and rated the mentally ill targets as more depressed, angry, anxious, disgusted, emotionally unstable, distressed, and less happy. Moreover, the depression ratings significantly correlated with the targets’ actual depressive symptoms. Thus, individuals may be able to infer aspects of mental disorder from minimal facial cues.     

Loss of Control as a Discriminating Factor Between Different Latent Classes of Disordered Gambling Severity

Analyses of disordered gambling assessment data have indicated that commonly used screens appear to measure latent categories. This stands in contrast to the oft-held assumption that problem gambling is at the extreme of a continuum. To explore this further, we report a series of latent class analyses of a number of prevalent problem gambling assessments (PGSI, SOGS, DSM-IV Pathological Gambling based assessments) in nationally representative British surveys between 1999 and 2012, analysing data from nearly fifty thousand individuals. The analyses converged on a three class model in which the classes differed by problem gambling severity. This identified an initial class of gamblers showing minimal problems, a additional class predominantly endorsing indicators of preoccupation and loss chasing, and a third endorsing a range of disordered gambling criteria. However, there was considerable evidence to suggest that classes of intermediate and high severity disordered gamblers differed systematically in their responses to items related to loss of control, and not simply on the most ‘difficult’ items. It appeared that these differences were similar between assessments. An important exception to this was one set of DSM-IV criteria based analyses using a specific cutoff, which was also used in an analysis that identified an increase in UK problem gambling prevalence between 2007 and 2010. The results suggest that disordered gambling has a mixed latent structure, and that present assessments of problem gambling appear to converge on a broadly similar construct.     

Influence of Perceived Economic Strain on the Relationship Between Caregiver BMI and Child BMI

As maternal BMI is a risk factor for higher child BMI, this exploratory study investigated perceived economic strain as a protective factor modifying this well-established relationship. Primary low-income female caregivers (n = 432) of preschoolers ages 3–5 years were interviewed using the Family Economic Strain Scale. Caregiver and child heights and weights were measured. Significant differences were found in perceived economic strain between normal versus underweight, overweight, and obese caregivers. A moderating effect approaching significance was noted such that at low levels of reported economic strain, caregiver BMI classification had no effect on child BMI z-score for normal weight, overweight, or obese caregivers. This study is the first to demonstrate that reduced perception of economic strain may act to buffer the impact of maternal overweight/obesity on child weight status. Given this biologically strong relationship, the potential for any modifiable factor to be detected is encouraging. Further collaborative research between economists and family resiliency researchers is suggested.     

The Relationship Between Problem Gambling and Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder

Recent studies indicate that treatment-seeking problem gamblers display elevated rates of ADHD and that adolescents who screen positive for ADHD are more likely to engage in gambling, develop gambling problems, and experience a greater severity in gambling problems. This study aimed to (a) compare the prevalence of ADHD in treatment-seeking problem gamblers to the general population; (b) investigate the relationships between ADHD and problem gambling severity, cluster B personality disorders, motor impulsivity, alcohol use, substance use, gender, and age; and (c) investigate the degree to which these factors moderate the relationship between ADHD and problem gambling severity. Participants included 214 adults (154 males, 58 females, 2 unspecified) who sought treatment for their gambling problems at a specialist gambling agency in Melbourne, Australia. Almost one-quarter (24.9 %) of treatment-seeking problem gamblers screened positively for ADHD, which was significantly higher than the 14 % prevalence in a community sample. ADHD was significantly positively correlated with problem gambling severity, motor impulsivity, and cluster B personality disorders, but was not associated with alcohol and substance use, gender or age. None of the factors significantly moderated the relationship between ADHD and problem gambling severity. These findings suggest that a considerable proportion of treatment-seeking problem gamblers report ADHD and that their clinical profile is complicated by the presence of high impulsivity and cluster B personality disorders. They highlight the need for specialist gambling agencies to develop screening, assessment, and management protocols for co-occurring ADHD to enhance the effectiveness of treatment.     

Assessing the contribution of fallen autumn leaves to airborne fungi in an urban environment

Urban Ecosystems - Many street trees in urban areas are deciduous and drop leaves during autumn. These leaves are a potential growing substrate for fungi, which when aerosolized and inhaled, can...