The Time-Varying-Parameter Model for Modeling Changing Conditional Variance: The Case of the Lucas Hypothesis

The main econometric issue in testing the Lucas (1973) hypothesis in a time series context is estimation of the forecast-error variance conditional on past information. The conditional variance may vary through time as monetary policy evolves and agents are obliged to infer its present state. Under the assumption that a monetary policy regime is continuously changing, a time-varying-parameter model is proposed for the monetary-growth function. Based on Kalman-filtering estimation of recursive forecast errors and their conditional variances, the Lucas hypothesis is tested for the U.S. economy (1964:1–1985:4) using monetary growth as aggregate demand variable. The Lucas hypothesis is rejected in favor of Friedman's (1977) hypothesis—the conditional variance of monetary growth affects real output directly, not through the coefficients on the forecast-error term in the Lucas-type output equation.     

Italian Preschoolers' Peer‐status Linkages with Sociability and Subtypes of Aggression and Victimization

Little is known about the behavior of preschool children belonging to peer sociometric status groups (popular, average, rejected, neglected, and controversial) in cultural contexts outside North America. This study examined the social interactions of Italian preschoolers. The sample consisted of 266 Italian preschoolers (mean age of 64 months). Physical and relational subtypes of aggression and victimization, as well as sociable behavior, were measured by peer nominations and teacher ratings. Peer nominations of acceptance and rejection (like and dislike nominations) were also collected in order to form the sociometric status groups. Results of confirmatory factor analyses showed that items developed with US preschoolers appeared to work fairly well in identifying behavioral constructs in Italian preschoolers. Findings generally supported previous research with American preschoolers. Sociometrically popular children were highest in sociability, and lowest in physical and relational aggression and victimization. The opposite pattern emerged for rejected status children. Neglected status children were generally not distinguished from average status children. Results also suggested that the enactment of relational aggression promotes greater social impact for some Italian children (controversial children), and this aggression also invites more conflict and victimization. However, the sociability of controversial children appears to buffer them from rejected group status.     

Structured approach to the elicitation of expert beliefs for a Bayesian‐designed clinical trial: a case study

To quantify uncertainty in a formal manner, statisticians play a vital role in identifying a prior distribution for a Bayesian‐designed clinical trial. However, when expert beliefs are to be used to form the prior, the literature is sparse on how feasible and how reliable it is to elicit beliefs from experts. For late‐stage clinical trials, high importance is placed on reliability; however, feasibility may be equally important in early‐stage trials. This article describes a case study to assess how feasible it is to conduct an elicitation session in a structured manner and to form a probability distribution that would be used in a hypothetical early‐stage trial. The case study revealed that by using a structured approach to planning, training and conduct, it is feasible to elicit expert beliefs and form a probability distribution in a timely manner. We argue that by further increasing the published accounts of elicitation of expert beliefs in drug development, there will be increased confidence in the feasibility of conducting elicitation sessions. Furthermore, this will lead to wider dissemination of the pertinent issues on how to quantify uncertainty to both practicing statisticians and others involved with designing trials in a Bayesian manner. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Does parenting correspond with children's defending behavior? Examining linkages in the context of peer social preference

Bullying intervention research points to the important role of children standing up for victims (defending behavior). This study provides an initial look at how certain parenting practices may be generally related to the socialization of defending behavior among children. Defenders typically enjoy significant social status, allowing them the social capital to intervene. With this in mind, we also assess how parenting and children's social preference scores might uniquely or interactively predict defending behavior. This cross‐sectional study employs a sample of 219 (101 boys) fourth‐grade children living in the Western United States. Both mothers and fathers self‐reported their authoritative, authoritarian, and psychologically controlling parenting practices. A peer sociometric assessment provided each child's social preference score. Peer nominations provided each child's reputation for defending behaviors. Multiple regression results showed that a few of the parenting dimensions significantly predicted girls’ defending behavior above and beyond peer social preference. In contrast, the defending behavior scores of boys were unrelated to parenting. Finally, we used interaction analyses to probe whether the association between defending and parenting meaningfully varies according to children's levels of social preference. We did not find evidence to support this. We discuss the ramifications of these findings for future research.     

Residential Preferences: What's Terrorism Got to Do with It?

Security has long been recognized as an element in residential preference and its relative importance has risen with fear of extremist attacks on U.S. cities. Using polling data from 2004, this research investigates whether the security breaches of 9/11 in New York City influenced residential preferences in New York State. Our results confirm that perceived risks are greatest downstate but exert little overall net effect on (re)location plans. A stabilizing effect may be evident where preferences are reinforced among upstate residents who respond to downstate risk by strengthening “stay put” attitudes. An inspection of real‐estate data in the northern reaches of the New York Metropolitan Area suggests a risk‐averse hedging strategy—city residents relocating in stages by acquiring open land and the option to build and move should renewed terrorist attacks occur.     

Randomized trial of Promoting First Relationships: Effects on maltreated toddlers' separation distress and sleep regulation after reunification

This study investigates the impact of an attachment focused intervention, Promoting First Relationships (PFR), on sleep problems among toddlers in child welfare recently reunified with their birth parent. Recently reunified parent–toddler dyads (n = 43) were drawn from a larger random control trial. Toddlers (11–36 months) and their parents were assessed in two-hour research home visits at enrollment (baseline), and a 6-month post-intervention follow-up. Measures included parental report of sleep problems and research visitor observation of separation distress (using the Toddler Attachment Sort-45). The PFR intervention predicted fewer sleep problems, adjusting for a baseline measure of sleep problems and other covariates. A path model showed evidence of an indirect effect of PFR on sleep problems through declines in separation distress. An attachment focused intervention like PFR that reduces infant separation distress can lead to reductions in sleep problems.     

Social Utility Theory: Guiding Labeling of VNRs as Ethical and Effective Public Relations

Social utility theory suggests that labeling video news release (VNR) source material is the ethical decision (Wulfemeyer & Frazier, 1992 Wulfemeyer, K. T. and Frazier, L. 1992. The ethics of video news releases: A qualitative analysis. Journal of Mass Media Ethics, 7: 151–168. [Taylor & Francis Online] , [Google Scholar]), yet the persuasion knowledge model predicts that the effectiveness of VNRs will decrease as people become aware of this PR tactic (Friestad & Wright, 1994 Friestad, M. and Wright, P. 1994. The persuasion knowledge model: How people cope with persuasion attempts. Journal of Consumer Research, 21: 1–31. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Our study found that positive and negative effects were heightened when subjects read about VNRs and viewed a labeled VNR in a newscast. These subjects were most likely to recognize the VNR story source and least likely to perceive the story as credible. Neither reading nor labeling affected evaluations of the VNR message or featured company.