STRATEGY, NONTRANSITIVE DOMINANCE AND THE EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION

An easily programmed recursive formula for the evaluation of the distribution function of ratios of linear combinations of independent exponential random variables is developed. This formula is shown to yield the probability that one team beats another in a contest we call the special gladiator game. This game generates tournaments which exhibit nontransitive dominance and have some surprising consequences. Similar results are obtained for a recursive formula based on the geometric distribution.     

Status Inconsistency: Its Objective and Subjective Components*

Sociologists need to recognize the distinction between objective and subjective status inconsistency. Objective inconsistency may be defined in terms of an arbitrary manipulation of an individual's status ranks, or it may be defined in terms of the normative expectations linking together the various status dimensions. Subjective inconsistency, on the other hand, involves asking the respondent to decide for himself whether or not he is inconsistent. When objective inconsistency is defined in terms of arbitrary mathematical manipulations, the relationship between these two components of inconsistency (i.e., objective and subjective) is basically an empirical question. However, when objective inconsistency is defined in terms of the normative expectations in a population, and when the respondent shares these expectations, we propose that these two components of inconsistency will be identical. Conversely, they will not be identical when the respondent does not share these expectations. Finally, the implications of defining inconsistency in terms of normative expectations are explored.     

Basic family therapy skills, I: conceptualization and initial findings

This is the first report on a program of research designed to identify the most important characteristics of the beginning marriage and family therapist. The paper first surveys the literature in family therapy, social work, and psychology and finds that, although these factors are discussed for beginning psychotherapists, no set of skills are derived empirically. This study recruited all available members of the American Family Therapy Association (AFTA) and Approved Supervisors of the American Association of Marriage and Family Therapy (AAMFT) who were experienced educators and trainers of family therapists. After nominating the most important generic-type characteristics for beginning family therapists, the participants rated the items, yielding a list of not only the most important skills, but also personal traits of beginners based on mean scores of the ratings. The final section of the paper discusses the implications of these findings and notes the current and future activities of the research program.     

Sugar daddies: “Keeping” a mistress and the gentleman's code

It represents work undertaken in London, England during 1980–1983 and draws upon a sample of 209 women, 148 of whom were interviewed in London, the remainder writing in response to Letters to the Editor placed in North American newspapers, and a sample of 59 men supporting mistresses in extramarital relationships. It is an exploratory study of a sub-group which has been largely ignored in academic literature and which is subject to a variety of crude stereotypes in popular fiction. Comments made by my male respondents suggested to me that their behavior was ruled by a code of conduct and that there was an etiquette to the sugar daddy role which allowed the men to conceive of their behavior as honorable rather than anti-social or deviant. Although the concept of the gentleman is fundamentally elitist in its origins, in a broader sense it can help describe the etiquette of the sugar daddy role.     

Missouri Casino Self-Excluders: Distributions Across Time and Space

According to public health research, exposure to casinos is a risk factor for disordered gambling. Consequently, casino self-exclusion programs, which provide gamblers with the opportunity to voluntarily seek limits on their access to gambling venues, can serve as a barometer of the concentration of disordered gambling in an area. This study reports on the distribution, both temporally and geographically, of 6,599 people who applied to exclude themselves from Missouri casinos between November, 1996 and February, 2004. Analyses used Microsoft MapPoint to plot the location of casinos and self-excluders (SEs) across Missouri and its constituent counties. These regional exposure analyses showed that the Western region around Kansas City is an epicenter of disordered gambling as, to a lesser extent, is the Eastern region around St. Louis. The annual number of SE enrollments increased during the first few years of the Missouri self-exclusion program and then leveled off during the later years. These findings have important implications for public health and the development of public health interventions for disordered gamblers.     

Analyzing center specific outcomes in hematopoietic cell transplantation

Reporting transplant center-specific survival rates after hematopoietic cell transplantation is required in the United States. We describe a method to report 1-year survival outcomes by center, as well as to quantify center performance relative to the transplant center network average, which can be reliably used with censored data and for small center sizes. Each center's observed 1-year survival outcome is compared to a predicted survival outcome adjusted for patient characteristics using a pseudovalue regression technique. A 95% prediction interval for 1-year survival assuming no center effect is computed for each center by bootstrapping the scaled residuals from the regression model, and the observed 1-year survival is compared to this prediction interval to determine center performance. We illustrate the technique using a recent center specific analysis performed by the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research, and study the performance of this method using simulation.