Modelling the travel time of transit vehicles in real‐time through a GTFS‐based road network using GPS vehicle locations

Predicting the arrival time of a transit vehicle involves not only knowledge of its current position and schedule adherence, but also traffic conditions along the remainder of the route. Road networks are dynamic and can quickly change from free‐flowing to highly congested, which impacts the arrival time of transit vehicles, particularly buses which often share the road with other vehicles, so reliable predictions need to account for real‐time and future traffic conditions. The first step in this process is to construct a framework with which road state (traffic conditions) can be estimated using real‐time transit vehicle position data. Our proposed framework implements a vehicle model using a particle filter to estimate road travel times, which are used in a second model to estimate real‐time traffic conditions. Although development and testing took place in Auckland, New Zealand, we generalised each component to make the framework compatible with other public transport systems around the world. We demonstrate the real‐time feasibility and performance of our approach in real‐time, where a combination of R and C++ was used to obtain the necessary performance results. Future work will use these estimated traffic conditions in combination with historical data to obtain reliable arrival time predictions of transit vehicles.     

外国领导是怎么炼成的

具有“个人魅力”的领导人往往能使人对其忠诚,但并不是每个社会都需要一个“个人魅力”型的领导人,在非洲和一些拉美国家,个人魅力甚至会起到负作用。在没有个人魅力的时候,只要你付出更多的努力,也能成为一名优秀的领导人。     

Reversible jump methods for generalised linear models and generalised linear mixed models

A reversible jump algorithm for Bayesian model determination among generalised linear models, under relatively diffuse prior distributions for the model parameters, is proposed. Orthogonal projections of the current linear predictor are used so that knowledge from the current model parameters is used to make effective proposals. This idea is generalised to moves of a reversible jump algorithm for model determination among generalised linear mixed models. Therefore, this algorithm exploits the full flexibility available in the reversible jump method. The algorithm is demonstrated via two examples and compared to existing methods.     

Adult–Adolescent Interaction and Adolescents' Brain Development: Integrating Pragmatism/Interactionism and Neuroscience to Develop a Platform for Research on Adolescents' Life Regulation

The aim of this paper is to outline a platform for research on adolescents' life regulation. Adolescents' brain development is described with the help of neuroscience and integrated with pragmatist and symbolic interactionist insights about how adolescents can learn to control their impulses and act thoughtfully. The foundation for the analysis is found in American pragmatism, where a biopsychosocial perspective is built on the understanding that the developed human brain is the essential precondition of a complex and civilized society. Today's interactionists, and in general, the majority of sociologists, show little interest in brain development and function. However, there is an opportunity for sociologists and neuroscientists to collaborate in order to better understand how the brain develops in relation to biological development and social experience.     

Markov bridges and enlarged filtrations

The semimartingale decomposition of a Markov chain, whose value at some future time is known, is obtained by considering an enlarged filtration.     

Financial Well-Being Components

The reported study advances psychological theory of well-being by offering deeper insight into the factors underlying financial well-being (FWB) in particular. An empirical investigation conducted into the determinants of FWB for two population groups, young workers and families with young children in the UK. Their financial decisions have important consequences for their households. A substantial internet survey of 654 people was conducted, which identified the most significant drivers of FWB or satisfaction, which is analogous to the measurement of subjective well-being in the domain of healthcare. The most significant finding from the regression is the significance for both groups of having control over their finances; control is even more important than the amount of available money for this population. A conclusion of the research is that the FWB would be increased if individuals could experience a greater sense of overall control of their money. In particular, financial institutions could provide products and processes to improve the FWB of their customers. There are also potential policy implications from the benefits of lower unsecured debt and increased savings to mitigate unexpected life events.     

The Ethical Challenges of Socially Responsible Science

Social responsibility is an essential part of the responsible conduct of research that presents difficult ethical questions for scientists. Recognizing one’s social responsibilities as a scientist is an important first step toward exercising social responsibility, but it is only the beginning, since scientists may confront difficult value questions when deciding how to act responsibly. Ethical dilemmas related to socially responsible science fall into at least three basic categories: 1) dilemmas related to problem selection, 2) dilemmas related to publication and data sharing, and 3) dilemmas related to engaging society. In responding to these dilemmas, scientists must decide how to balance their social responsibilities against other professional commitments and how to avoid compromising their objectivity. In this article, we will examine the philosophical and ethical basis of social responsibility in science, discuss some of the ethical dilemmas related to exercising social responsibility, and make five recommendations to help scientists deal with these issues.