ECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF THE TIMING OF PREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENT FORMATIONS AND ENLARGEMENTS

Preferential trade agreements (PTAs) have proliferated over the past 60 years. While a small number of recent studies have examined empirically the economic determinants of the likelihood of a pair of countries having a PTA, this study explains empirically the timing of all PTA formations and enlargements from 1950 through 2006 using duration analysis. Our main and novel goal is to predict (in‐ and out‐of‐sample) a substantive share of these 1,560 PTA events using a parsimonious model with mainly economic variables, taking selection dynamics into account. Our analysis reveals that we can predict correctly in‐sample the actual year of entry into force for 26% of the 1,560 bilateral PTA formations/enlargements in the period 1950–2006 among 10,518 pairings of 146 countries using only a few economic and political variables. Moreover, we can predict correctly in‐sample 57% of these PTA events within a 10‐year window leading up to the event using this model. The model also performs well out‐of‐sample for the near term (82%), but not if the out‐of‐sample period is very long. We conclude with an evaluation of the model's ability to predict the timing of the North American Free Trade Agreement, the European Union's formation and enlargements, and the model's ten most likely post‐2006 PTA events. (JEL F14, F15)     

Racial Group Comparisons of Conceptualizations of Rap Music Constructs: A Cross-racial Validity Study of the Rap Music Attitude and Perception Scale

Interpretations and perceptions of the effects and content of rap music lyrics have been given considerable attention in the literature in recent years, yet few assessment tools have been developed that can produce reliable and valid inferences about these views. One exception is the Rap-music Attitude and Perception (RAP) Scale. This study examined the cross-racial effects on attitudes toward and perceptions of rap music using a sample of 1,254 college students. A cross-sectional survey design was used to gather these data. Three specific hypotheses were tested and were supported or partially supported. Alpha reliabilities for the full scale and for each of the three sub-scales were good for black and white students separately. Criterion validity for these groups was also good. Finally, tests of factorial equivalence suggested that the factor structure of the RAP was equivalent across racial groups. The RAP is a tool with strong psychometric properties and can be used by practitioners and researchers working with black and white subgroups. Directions for future research on the utility of the RAP are forwarded.     

Beyond Contact? Policy approaches to work with families of looked after children in four European countries

In England, placement within the looked after system is not viewed as a desirable long‐term solution for most children, and policy has prioritised continued contact with parents, and swift return home, wherever possible. This review examines policy approaches to work with families of looked after children in England and in three other European countries: Denmark, France and the Netherlands, aiming to identify areas for shared learning in relation to this challenging area of policy and practice. The research highlights relationships between care populations and policy understandings of the purpose of work with families, including understandings of children's and/or parents’ rights.     

Dose‐Response Models Incorporating Aerosol Size Dependency for Francisella tularensis

The effect of bioaerosol size was incorporated into predictive dose‐response models for the effects of inhaled aerosols of Francisella tularensis (the causative agent of tularemia) on rhesus monkeys and guinea pigs with bioaerosol diameters ranging between 1.0 and 24 μm. Aerosol‐size‐dependent models were formulated as modification of the exponential and β‐Poisson dose‐response models and model parameters were estimated using maximum likelihood methods and multiple data sets of quantal dose‐response data for which aerosol sizes of inhaled doses were known. Analysis of F. tularensis dose‐response data was best fit by an exponential dose‐response model with a power function including the particle diameter size substituting for the rate parameter k scaling the applied dose. There were differences in the pathogen's aerosol‐size‐dependence equation and models that better represent the observed dose‐response results than the estimate derived from applying the model developed by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP, 1994) that relies on differential regional lung deposition for human particle exposure.     

An Extended Single‐index Model with Missing Response at Random

An extended single‐index model is considered when responses are missing at random. A three‐step estimation procedure is developed to define an estimator for the single‐index parameter vector by a joint estimating equation. The proposed estimator is shown to be asymptotically normal. An algorithm for computing this estimator is proposed. This algorithm only involves one‐dimensional nonparametric smoothers, thereby avoiding the data sparsity problem caused by high model dimensionality. Some simulation studies are conducted to investigate the finite sample performances of the proposed estimators.     

Multivariate log-skewed distributions with normal kernel and their applications

We introduce two classes of multivariate log-skewed distributions with normal kernel: the log canonical fundamental skew-normal (log-CFUSN) and the log unified skew-normal. We also discuss some properties of the log-CFUSN family of distributions. These new classes of log-skewed distributions include the log-normal and multivariate log-skew normal families as particular cases. We discuss some issues related to Bayesian inference in the log-CFUSN family of distributions, mainly we focus on how to model the prior uncertainty about the skewing parameter. Based on the stochastic representation of the log-CFUSN family, we propose a data augmentation strategy for sampling from the posterior distributions. This proposed family is used to analyse the US national monthly precipitation data. We conclude that a high-dimensional skewing function lead to a better model fit.     

Relations Between Alphabetized Name Order and Nomination Counts in Peer Nomination Measures

Peer nominations, a central method for measuring peer relationships in developmental research, typically involve asking children or adolescents to choose peers who fit various criteria from an alphabetized roster of classmates or grade‐mates. Although such measures have been used for decades, very little research has investigated the effects of alphabetical name order on the number of nominations received by peers. This study collected peer nominations for 20 items among 607 eighth grade participants in two schools. Regression analyses showed that earlier name order significantly predicted higher nomination counts for eight of the items, and explained over 5 percent of the variance in four affective variables (friendship, acceptance, acquaintanceship, and received liking). Across variables, name order effects were negatively correlated with internal reliability of nominations, implying that order effects may be related to the consensus of the peer group. Name order also had a minimal effect on inter‐correlations among a subset of variables. Implications and concrete recommendations for controlling and reducing name order effects in future research are discussed.     

The Relation Between Therapeutic Alliance and Treatment Motivation in Residential Youth Care: A Cross-Lagged Panel Analysis

This study investigated the longitudinal relation between therapeutic alliance and treatment motivation in a sample of 174 adolescents receiving residential treatment in the Netherlands. Structural equation modeling with a cross-lagged panel design was used to examine the relation between therapeutic alliance and treatment motivation up to 9 months of treatment. Results revealed that autoregressive associations between initial therapeutic alliance and alliance at subsequent time points were significant, whereas for treatment motivation a significant association was found after 6 months, but not after 9 months. Results also showed that a higher level of therapeutic alliance after 3 months was predictive of a higher level of treatment motivation after 6 months. Furthermore, a higher level of therapeutic alliance after 6 months was predictive of a higher level of treatment motivation after 9 months. Implications for research and clinical practice are discussed.