Bayesian break-point forecasting in parallel time series,with application to university admissions

A regular supply of applicants to Queen's University in Kingston, Ontario is provided by 65 high schools. Each high school can be characterized by a series of grading standards which change from year to year. To aid admissions decisions, it is desirable to forecast the current year's grading standards for all 65 high schools using grading standards estimated from past year's data. We develop and apply a Bayesian break-point time-series model that generates forecasts which involve smoothing across time for each school and smoothing across schools. “Break point” refers to a point in time which divides the past into the “old past” and the “recent past” where the yearly observations in the recent past are exchangeable with the observations in the year to be forecast. We show that this model works fairly well when applied to 11 years of Queen's University data. The model can be applied to other data sets with the parallel time-series structure and short history, and can be extended in several ways to more complicated structures.     

Sexually open versus sexually exclusive marriage: A comparison of dyadic adjustment

In a study conducted in 1978, using Spanier's (1976) Dyadic Adjustment Scale (DAS), couples in a sexually open marriage and couples in a sexually exclusive marriage were compared on dyadic adjustment. One hundred and thirty sexually open respondents were matched with 130 sexually exclusive respondents. It was found that there was no difference in response patterns between people in a sexually open marriage and those in a sexually exclusive marriage who were still living together with their spouses. On the other hand, persons who were no longer living together with their spouses, regardless of whether they were open or exclusive sexually, scored significantly lower on dyadic adjustment.The author gratefully acknowledges James R. Adams, Ph.D., for his part in the conduct of this research.     

Contradictions of commitment in the new economy: Insecurity, time, and technology

The new flexible, 24/7 economy is characterized by employment insecurity, time pressure, and technologies that increase employees’ accessibility to their workplace. Accompanying these changes is a changing social contract between employees and their employers. Labor process and organizational theories suggest that these employment characteristics will undermine the attachment component of organizational commitment that remains an important feature of contemporary workplaces. We use an unpublished dataset of a nationally representative sample of employed individuals from the Families and Work Life Institute to test hypotheses linking the attachment component of organizational commitment to organizational insecurity, time pressure, and technologically created accessibility. Our expectation is that these changes will be particularly important for decreasing older cohorts of workers’ attachment to the organization since they have experienced a change in the social contract. The data are largely consistent with these expectations.     

空间理论视域下农民工“城市不融入”探究

现阶段,农民工作为城市化的建设者和贡献者,遭遇到无法融入城市的不公平境遇。20世纪70年代以来兴起的空间理论为解释农民工“城市不融入”问题提供了一个有力视角。基于空间理论分析,造成农民工“城市不融入”的主要原因是：制度空间设计下的户籍制度具有双重逻辑：既带来“城”和“乡”空间对立,又形成“农民”和“市民”身份排斥;地域空间中,住房的缺失与“城中村”形成,“寄生空间”与“城市空间”对立;认同空间中,“市民”的空间排斥和“农民工”的自我怀疑无法达成心理共识。要解决农民工“城市不融入”,应在制度空间、地域空间以及认同空间的基础上构建空间融入。     

Grandparents as Caregivers: Emerging Issues for the Profession

Over the last two decades, the number of grandparents caring for their grandchildren has grown exponentially. The 2010 census revealed that 7.5 million children lived with a grandparent. This article is based on a study to find out from grandparents in the southwest region of the United States the circumstances that led to caring for their grandchild, needs and challenges in their role, and finally, to examine the level of stress they experience as a result of the parenting role. Based on the findings, recommendations related to social work practice and policy are provided. Additionally, the need to educate social workers in competency-based education is highlighted.     

Professional Socialization and Social Work Values: Who Are We Teaching?

Despite the centrality of values to professional socialization, the social work literature lacks an extensive exploration of the readiness of students to be socialized into the profession and taught the theoretical framework and skills for ethical decision making. This study explored the relationship between age, academic class standing, and identity development. Results indicated that the Identity Achievement status occurs later than traditional university years and correlates with age but not with academic class standing. Important implications for teaching social work values, ethical decision making, and the significance of a liberal arts foundation are discussed.     

The Role of Maternal Behavior in the Relation between Shyness and Social Reticence in Early Childhood and Social Withdrawal in Middle Childhood

The moderating effect of maternal behavior in the relations between social reticence and shyness in preschool and subsequent social withdrawal was investigated. Eighty children (47 females) were judged for degree of social reticence during play with unfamiliar peers at the age of four and mothers completed the Colorado child temperament inventory (CCTI). At the age of seven, the children were coded for degree of social withdrawal during peer play and mothers and children were observed during structured and unstructured activities. Two significant interaction effects indicated that maternal report of shyness was a positive predictor of age‐seven social withdrawal when mothers lacked positivity; whereas observed social reticence was associated with higher degrees of social withdrawal when mothers were highly negative. Maternal positivity and negativity differentially influenced the development of social withdrawal in childhood, such that maternal negativity is associated with poor social functioning in children who have an established history of social withdrawal; whereas maternal positivity is associated with better social outcome for preschoolers who are viewed as temperamentally shy.     

Dealing with noncompliance and missing outcomes in a randomized trial using Bayesian technology: Prevention of perinatal sepsis clinical trial,Soweto, South Africa

The success of interventions designed to address important issues in social and medical science is best addressed by randomized experiments. With human beings there are often complications, however, such as noncompliance and missing data. Such complications are often addressed by statistically invalid methods of analysis, in particular, intention-to-treat and per-protocol analyses. Here we address these two complications using a statistically valid approach based on principal stratification with a fully Bayesian analysis. This analysis is applied to a randomized trial of a potentially important intervention designed to reduce the transmission of bacterial colonization between mothers and their infants through vaginal delivery in South Africa: the Prevention of Perinatal Sepsis (PoPs).