The four-parameter logit life table system

Summary Brass's model life table system, which is a two parameter system based on the logit transformation of survivorship values, has been widely and successfully used to describe age patterns of mortality in many populations. As more reliable information has become available for populations with mortality patterns which differ in important ways from the assumed standard pattern of mortality, a more flexible model system is needed. This paper shows how Brass's system can be expanded into a four-parameter model, and evaluates the performance of the new system by examining how well it can fit observed life table data.     

The management of offshore resources—Some implications of the 200-mile limit

This article examines in depth the strategic implications for those States who have recently declared 200 mile off-shore resource management zones. The authors, in a comprehensive and stimulating paper, examine the implications of so-calling a nation's offshore limit. It is an appropriate name for a nation's offshore limit since the primary reason for many nations declaring a 200 mile limit has been the abundance of resources which have often been found within those limits either in the sea or the sea bed itself. This paper reviews the current background of off-shore resource management and outlines suitable roles for adoption by the coastal States in the management of their off-shore renewable and non-renewable resources. Furthermore, it examines the contentious but nonetheless central issue of the benefits and costs which accrue through coastal state jurisdiction. The authors also examine an appropriate resource management process and the implications of resource use conflicts within the off shore limit as well as defining these conflicts on the basis of ‘stakeholder’ interests and introduces a new concept of the maximization of economic equity amongst competing stakeholders. The problem remains that the measurement of economic equity perhaps leaves the States concerned within a situation of only having defined the problem; the political process has then to deal with any reallocation measures that may be deemed appropriate.     

Demographic crisis: The impact of the Bangladesh civil war (1971) on births and deaths in a rural area of Bangladesh

Summary In Matlab Bazaar Thana the Cholera Research Laboratory has registered the births, deaths and migrations in a population of approximately 125,000 since 1966. Although this rural area was not the scene of any significant armed encounters, striking changes in birth and death rates were registered during and after the conflict. Birth rates did not change during the relatively brief period of the civil war, but a small decline was registered for one year after the war. Fertility rates which had been declining slightly and irregularly in the pre-war baseline period may have increased slightly during the war and fell substantially in all age groups in the year following the war. The crude death rate, which rose by 37 per cent during the war, was a very sensitive reflection of the administrative and economic problems. Overall infant mortality rose by only 15 per cent over pre-war levels because all of the increase was observed in the post-neo-natal component, which traditionally accounts for less than one-third of the total infant mortality in Bangladesh. Children and older adults accounted for the majority of excess deaths which were largely attributed to acute diarrhoeas and other gastro-intestinal causes. The death rate at ages 1-4 rose by 43 per cent and at ages 5-9 soared to 208 per cent above pre-war baseline rates. All increases in age-specific mortality rates fell to baseline levels during the year following the war, except the 5-9-year age group, in which rates continued to be high largely because of deaths due to dysentery.