Introduction: moving youth participation forward

Given the emerging interest among researchers, practitioners, and policymakers in youth participation, it is important to examine and assess carefully the promise and challenges of youth engagement.     

Parametric Modeling for Survival with Competing Risks and Masked Failure Causes

We consider a life testing situation in which systems are subject to failure from independent competing risks. Following a failure, immediate (stage-1) procedures are used in an attempt to reach a definitive diagnosis. If these procedures fail to result in a diagnosis, this phenomenon is called masking. Stage-2 procedures, such as failure analysis or autopsy, provide definitive diagnosis for a sample of the masked cases. We show how stage-1 and stage-2 information can be combined to provide statistical inference about (a) survival functions of the individual risks, (b) the proportions of failures associated with individual risks and (c) probability, for a specified masked case, that each of the masked competing risks is responsible for the failure. Our development is based on parametric distributional assumptions and the special case for which the failure times for the competing risks have a Weibull distribution is discussed in detail.     

Rethinking twins and environments: possible social sources for assumed genetic influences in twin research

A central sociological problem is the extent to which genetics and the environment influence human behavior. Studies of twins are a core method in attempts to disentangle and to determine the comparative strength of genetic and environmental influences on psychosocial outcomes. A critical assumption of twin studies is that both monozygotic "identical" twins and dizygotic "fraternal" twins share common social environments. Therefore, any greater similarity of monozygotic than dizygotic twins is attributed to genetic influences. This paper tests the equal environment assumption by examining the extent to which greater concordance of adolescent monozygotic compared to dizygotic twins results from social, as well as genetic, influences. Bivariate comparisons indicate that monozygotic twins show greater similarity than dizygotic twins in socially-based characteristics including physical attractiveness, time spent in each other's company, the overlap in friendship networks, and friends' use of alcohol. Multivariate analyses indicate that measures of the social environment sometimes reduce or eliminate apparent genetic effects. In comparison with genetic indicators, social variables are usually stronger predictors of depression and alcohol use and abuse. These findings suggest that past twin studies could overstate the strength of genetic influences because some similarities in behavior among monozygotic compared to dizygotic twins stem from social influences.     

Stalking and psychological abuse: common factors and relationship-specific characteristics

The purpose of this study was to refine and elaborate models of personality and relationship-specific characteristics in the perpetration of stalking and psychological abuse. Three hundred and forty-two college students who had been in intimate relationships completed a series of questionnaires about their most recent breakup and their former relationship. Our hypotheses were supported, with harsh parental discipline, anxious attachment, and need for control of one's partner forming a common cluster in the prediction of stalking and psychological abuse. For psychological abuse, relationship dissatisfaction added to the predictive factors; whereas for stalking, the level of anger-jealousy over the breakup was the major added factor. Degree of anger-jealousy was influenced by being the recipient of a breakup and the level of passion.     

What clients of couple therapy model developers and their former students say about change, part II: model-independent common factors and an integrative framework

Proponents of the common factors movement in marriage and family therapy (MFT) suggest that, rather than specific models of therapy, elements common across models of therapy and common to the process of therapy itself are responsible for therapeutic change. This article-the second of two companion articles-reports on a study designed to further investigate common factors in couple therapy. We used grounded theory techniques to analyze data from interviews with MFT model developers Dr. Susan M. Johnson, Dr. Frank M. Dattilio, Dr. Richard C. Schwartz, former students of Dr. Johnson and Dr. Schwartz, and each of their clients who had been successful in couple therapy. This article reports model-independent variables, that is, general aspects of therapy that are not directly related to the therapist's model. Model-independent categories include client variables, therapist variables, the therapeutic alliance, therapeutic process, and expectancy and motivational factors, each with several subcategories. We also present a conceptual framework that outlines how model-dependent and model-independent common factors may interact to produce change. We discuss our findings and proposed framework in relation to the current common factors literature in psychology and MFT. We also discuss clinical, training, and research implications.     

A Probabilistic Framework for Risk Analysis of Widespread Flood Events: A Proof‐of‐Concept Study

This article presents a flood risk analysis model that considers the spatially heterogeneous nature of flood events. The basic concept of this approach is to generate a large sample of flood events that can be regarded as temporal extrapolation of flood events. These are combined with cumulative flood impact indicators, such as building damages, to finally derive time series of damages for risk estimation. Therefore, a multivariate modeling procedure that is able to take into account the spatial characteristics of flooding, the regionalization method top‐kriging, and three different impact indicators are combined in a model chain. Eventually, the expected annual flood impact (e.g., expected annual damages) and the flood impact associated with a low probability of occurrence are determined for a study area. The risk model has the potential to augment the understanding of flood risk in a region and thereby contribute to enhanced risk management of, for example, risk analysts and policymakers or insurance companies. The modeling framework was successfully applied in a proof‐of‐concept exercise in Vorarlberg (Austria). The results of the case study show that risk analysis has to be based on spatially heterogeneous flood events in order to estimate flood risk adequately.