Household Income and Trajectories of Marital Satisfaction in Early Marriage

Are the marriages of lower income couples less satisfying than the marriages of more affluent couples? To address this question, we compared trajectories of marital satisfaction among couples with a wide range of household incomes. The marital satisfaction of 862 Black, White, and Latino newlywed spouses (N = 431 couples) was assessed five times, each 9 months apart, during the first 4 years of marriage. Lower income couples did not have less satisfying marriages on average, nor did their satisfaction decline more steeply on average. They did, however, experience (a) significantly greater fluctuations in marital satisfaction across assessments and (b) significantly more variability between husbands and wives. If efforts to support the marriages of low‐income couples are to address the unique characteristics of their marital development, these findings suggest that efforts to stabilize their marriages may be more effective than efforts to improve their satisfaction alone.     

FORWARD GUIDANCE AND THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY

This paper analyzes forward guidance in a nonlinear model with a zero lower bound (ZLB) on the nominal interest rate. Forward guidance is modeled with news shocks to the monetary policy rule, which capture innovations in expectations from central bank communication about future policy rates. Whereas most studies use quasi‐linear models that disregard the expectational effects of hitting the ZLB, we show how the effectiveness of forward guidance nonlinearly depends on the state of the economy, the speed of the recovery, the degree of uncertainty, the policy shock size, and the forward guidance horizon when households account for the ZLB. (JEL E43, E58, E61)     

Is Stepfamily Status Associated With Cohabiting and Married Women’s Fertility Behaviors?

Children from prior relationships potentially complicate fertility decision-making in new cohabitations and marriages. On the one hand, the “value of children” perspective suggests that unions with and without stepchildren have similar—and deliberate—reasons for shared childbearing. On the other hand, multipartnered fertility (MPF) research suggests that childbearing across partnerships is often unintended. Using the 2006–2010 National Survey of Family Growth and event-history models, I examine the role of stepfamily status on cohabiting and married women’s fertility and birth intendedness, with attention to union type and stepfamily configuration. Adjusting for covariates, women in stepfamily unions are more likely to have a first shared birth in a union than women in unions in which neither partner has children from past relationships, but stepfamily births are less likely to be intended than unintended. Further, this association varies by union type: married women have similar birth risks across stepfamily status, but births are less likely to be intended in marital stepfamilies. For cohabitors, women in a stepfamily are more likely to have a birth than women in nonstepfamily unions, with no differences in intendedness. Configuration (whose children and how many) also matters; for instance, women with one child from a past relationship are more likely to have a birth and to have an intended than unintended birth than women with other stepfamily configurations. It appears that children from either partner’s prior relationships influences subsequent fertility decision-making, undermining the utility of the “value of children” perspective for explaining childbearing behaviors in complex families.     

Self-healing umbrella sampling: convergence and efficiency

The Self-Healing Umbrella Sampling (SHUS) algorithm is an adaptive biasing algorithm which has been proposed in Marsili et al. (J Phys Chem B 110(29):14011–14013, 2006) in order to efficiently sample a multimodal probability measure. We show that this method can be seen as a variant of the well-known Wang–Landau algorithm Wang and Landau (Phys Rev E 64:056101, 2001a; Phys Rev Lett 86(10):2050–2053, 2001b). Adapting results on the convergence of the Wang-Landau algorithm obtained in Fort et al. (Math Comput 84(295):2297–2327, 2014a), we prove the convergence of the SHUS algorithm. We also compare the two methods in terms of efficiency. We finally propose a modification of the SHUS algorithm in order to increase its efficiency, and exhibit some similarities of SHUS with the well-tempered metadynamics method Barducci et al. (Phys Rev Lett 100:020,603, 2008).     

Leading collective action to address wicked problems

The alleviation of wicked problems requires collective action because these issues are characterized by significant uncertainty and complexity. This research extends prior work by examining how conveners' use robust action to navigate wicked problems' defining characteristics in the mobilization process. It provides a longitudinal study of a health care nonprofit attempting to engage other stakeholders in addressing the high costs and inadequate quality of health care in a region of the United States. Specifically, the convener sought to address this wicked problem by developing a health information exchange. The findings relate five robust action tactics through which the convener advanced collective action.     

From waterfall plots to spaghetti plots in early oncology clinical development

Waterfall plots are used to describe changes in tumor size observed in clinical studies. They are frequently used to illustrate the overall drug response in oncology clinical trials because of its simple representation of results. Unfortunately, this visual display suffers a number of limitations including (1) potential misguidance by masking the time dynamics of tumor size, (2) ambiguous labelling of the y‐axis, and (3) low data‐to‐ink ratio. We offer some alternatives to address these shortcomings and recommend moving away from waterfall plots to the benefit of plots showing the individual time profiles of sum of lesion diameters (according to RECIST). The spider plot presents the individual changes in tumor measurements over time relative to baseline tumor burden. Baseline tumor size is a well‐known confounding factor of drug effect which has to be accounted for when analyzing data in early clinical trials. While spider plots are conveniently correct for baseline tumor size, they cannot be presented in isolation. Indeed, percentage change from baseline has suboptimal statistical properties (including skewed distribution) and can be overly optimistic in favor of drug efficacy. We argued that plots of raw data (referred to as spaghetti plots) should always accompany spider plots to provide an equipoised illustration of the drug effect on lesion diameters.     

Are fire services ‘extremely gendered’ organizations? Examining the Country Fire Authority (CFA) in Australia

Emergency management organizations often have military‐based histories and continue to maintain militaristic styles of operation. Similar to the military, these organizations tend to be male dominated and culturally masculinized. The militarization and masculinization of rural fire services in Australia are generally unrecognized but highly important elements defining these organizations, and the example of the Country Fire Authority (CFA) is considered here. Using a cultural artefacts approach, historical and contemporary elements of the CFA's structure and practice are analysed using the concept of an ‘extremely gendered’ organization, with a focus on how the CFA is structurally and culturally gendered. We argue there is value in expanding the notion of ‘extremely gendered’ institutions beyond the military, to include other militarized organizations. Doing so not only helps to better understand and address resistance to change and gender equality measures, it also draws attention to the important role that such organizations play in the greater patriarchal order.     

Deviant Peer Behavior and Adolescent Delinquency: Protective Effects of Inhibitory Control,Planning, or Decision Making?

We examined relations between adolescent perceptions of deviant peer behavior and delinquency as moderated by inhibitory control, planning, and decision making in the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development at age 15 (N = 991). Adolescents reported perceptions of deviant peer behavior. Inhibitory control, planning, and decision making were assessed behaviorally. Delinquency was evaluated with a latent variable comprised of parent‐guardian perceptions of adolescent delinquency and adolescent self‐reports. Only inhibitory control moderated the relationship between deviant peer behavior and delinquency, showing that better inhibition protected against delinquency in contexts of high levels of adolescent perceptions of deviant peer behavior. Findings are discussed in the context of theories of adolescent delinquency and risk taking.     

Adolescents' Civic Engagement: Concordant and Longitudinal Associations Among Civic Beliefs and Civic Involvement

Associations between adolescent civic and organized activities (volunteering, standard political, social movement, school/community, religious) and civic beliefs (comprised of should, obligation, and respect judgments) were examined. Cross‐sectional models (N = 703, M_age = 15.87) indicated domain specificity between adolescent civic beliefs and behaviors. Longitudinal models (n = 219, M_age = 15.39) indicated that adolescents' standard political beliefs predicted greater levels of standard political involvement one year later, and school/community activities predicted greater standard political beliefs a year later. Youth volunteering predicted lower standard political beliefs, and standard political involvement predicted lower community service beliefs one year later. Findings support the assessment of adolescent sociomoral civic beliefs and demonstrate how civic experiences and civic beliefs can mutually promote each other during adolescence.