Climate shocks and migration: an agent-based modeling approach

This is a study of migration responses to climate shocks. We construct an agent-based model that incorporates dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, such as migration, marriage, and births, and agriculture and land use, which depend on rainfall patterns. The rules and parameterization of our model are empirically derived from qualitative and quantitative analyses of a well-studied demographic field site, Nang Rong district, northeast Thailand. With this model, we simulate patterns of migration under four weather regimes in a rice economy: (1) a reference, “normal” scenario; (2) 7 years of unusually wet weather; (3) 7 years of unusually dry weather; and (4) 7 years of extremely variable weather. Results show relatively small impacts on migration. Experiments with the model show that existing high migration rates and strong selection factors, which are unaffected by climate change, are likely responsible for the weak migration response.     

The Changing Institutional Context of Low Fertility

Using data for 1960–97 for 22 low fertility countries, we document a dramatic change in the association of fertility levels to women's levels of labor force participation. Until the 1980s, this association had been strongly negative. However, during the 1980s itbecame positive, and since 1990 strongly positive. We also document an emerging positive association of the country-level total fertility ratio (TFR) and nonmarital ratio (e.g., the proportion of births to unmarried women). We argue that these transformed associations reflect societal level responses that, in some contexts, have eased the incompatibility between mother and worker roles, and loosened the link betweenmarriage and childbearing. These arguments imply that societal responses to mother/worker incompatibility exert substantial influence on fertility levels in low fertility countries.     

The impact of legislator and constituency ideology on voting on the assault weapons ban

Using variables that represent a legislator's entire legal constituency, previous research by social scientists has concluded that views of the legislator's constituency have little effect on how legislators vote. This question is reexamined by defining constituency as those voters most likely to vote for the legislator (i.e., members of the legislator's own political party and independents). Furthermore, instead of measuring constituency by either a demographic or vote-based measure, a survey measure of the ideological identification of voters (i.e., the voter's self-identification as liberal, moderate, or conservative) is introduced. It is found that the ideology of a senator's electoral constituency was an important factor on the recent U.S. Senate vote to ban 19 semi-automatic assault weapons. The findings have important implications for how social scientists conceptualize and measure constituency.     

Childhood physical and sexual abuse in China

In order to determine the prevalence and characteristics of childhood physical and sexual abuse in China, the authors conducted a survey in Shanghai. The Dissociative Disorders Interview Schedule was administered to 423 inpatients and 304 outpatients at Shanghai Mental Health Center, and to a non-clinical sample of 618 workers at a clothing factory. The results were compared to a previous sample of 502 respondents in the general population in Winnipeg, Canada. The identities of the perpetrators of physical and sexual abuse, and the types of sexual abuse reported were similar in the two countries; however, the rates of reported abuse were lower in China. Childhood sexual abuse appears to be far less common in the general population in Canada than in China.     

Focus on a necessary benefit

More than 9,000 home health agencies provide services to Medicare beneficiaries. In 1996, 10 percent of Medicare beneficiaries received home health services at a total cost of +18 billion. Rapid growth has forced changes in the structure of the benefit payment system and has made home health an attractive area for fraudulent activities which are now being targeted. Collectively, this important benefit and relatively new industry will face changes in the way they do business and deliver services.