Questions & Answeres: Reflections on Forecasting

Dedicated to the late Professor J. B. S. Haldane who brought to my attention the following very significant story from the ancient Indian epic Mahabharat (Nala—Damayanti Akhy[abar]n): The king lost his way in a jungle and was required to spend the night in a tree. The next day he told some fellow traveller that the total number of leaves on the tree were “so many”. On being challenged as to whether he counted all the leaves he replied; “No, but I counted leaves on a few branches of the tree and I know the science of die throwing”. (I can vouch for accurateness of the reproduction only in the essential respects.)     

Statistical Matching Using File Concatenation With Adjusted Weights and Multiple Imputations

Statistically matched files are created in an attempt to solve the practical problem that exists when no single file has the full set of variables needed for drawing important inferences. Previous methods of file matching are reviewed, and the method of file concatenation with adjusted weights and multiple imputations is described and illustrated on an artificial example. A major benefit of this approach is the ability to display sensitivity of inference to untestable assumptions being made when creating the matched file.     

The relationship of placement experience to school absenteeism and changing schools in young,school-aged children in foster care

Background

Chronic school absenteeism and frequent school changes, particularly among younger children, may be antecedents for the high rates of school failure and subsequent dropout among youth in foster care. However, the relationship of foster care experience to absenteeism and school change has not been well studied.

Objective

This study examined the association of placement experience with absenteeism and changing schools among 209 urban children in foster care enrolled in public elementary schools.

Methods

A cohort of children aged 5 to 8 years who entered non-relative or kinship foster care from 2006–2008 were followed longitudinally for 2 years from entry into foster care. Children residing in foster care were categorized at the end of the study as early stable, late stable, or unstable, if they achieved a permanent placement prior to 45 days, between 45 days and 9 months, or failed to do so within 9 months, respectively. Children who reunified home were classified as a fourth category. Poisson regression, controlling for baseline factors, was used to compare days absent and number of schools attended across categories of placement experience.

Results

Among the 209 children, 51% were male, 79% were African American, and 55% were initially placed with kin. One third of children reunified home; among children who did not reunify, one half was early stable, and a third was unstable. Adjusted rates of school absenteeism increased in stepwise fashion as children's placements became more unstable; children with unstable placements were 37% more likely to be absent than those with early placement stability (p = 0.029). Children who reunified during the study demonstrated the highest rates of absenteeism; however, there was no significant difference in absenteeism before or after reunification. Number of schools attended increased as stability worsened, with the standardized rate of schools attended reaching 3.6 schools (95% CI 3.1–4.1) over a two year period among children in unstable placements.

Conclusions

The relationship between placement experience and school absenteeism and school change illustrates the need to better coordinate the educational experience of high-risk children in foster care. The secondary finding of high absenteeism among children in the process of returning home illustrates that educational challenges for youth may be equally if not more concerning among the greater majority of youth in child welfare who remain home with birth parents.     

Multicultural Considerations in the Application of Child Protection Laws

Professionals exercise a great deal ofdiscretion in the application ofmandatory reporting laws and child welfare laws. This paper examines the subjective factors that influence the decisionmaking process from labeling an incident as possible abuse or neglect through the disposition stage. Multicultural issues that affect each stage of the process are discussed. Areas of disparate treatment of minorities are considered. Disparate treatment stems from biased and unequal application of the laws in some cases, or when standards are applied and interventions made that are insensitive to the cultural context of the family. Potential consequences of failing to consider culture in applying child protection laws are biased reporting, errors in assessing perceived risk, ineffective interventions) and increased out-of-home placements. The need for a culturally sensitive approach to assessment and intervention is emphasized.. Areas for future research are recommended.     

Does Listening to Mozart Affect Listening Ability?

Considerable research has been conducted testing Rauscher, Shaw, and Ky's (1993) Rauscher, F. H., Shaw, G. L and Ky, K. N. 1993. Music and spatial task performance. Nature, 365: 611[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar] Mozart Effect (ME). This study attempts to replicate, in part, research that tested the ME on listening comprehension abilities. Also included in this study is an examination of control group issues in current day research. We hypothesized that students who listen to Mozart would demonstrate greater listening comprehension than students involved in one of four control groups. Students were exposed to one of five treatments and then completed a listening comprehension test about a videotaped lecture they viewed. Ultimately, results uncovered a ME when comparing the Mozart A (alpha) group with the alternative treatment control groups (Mozart B [beta] music and Rock and Roll music), but no ME when comparing the Mozart A group and the non-music control groups (sitting in silence or working on a crossword puzzle). Discussion focused on the ME and listening comprehension as well as on the nature of control groups in experimental research.     

Imperfect competition,border protection and consumer boycott: The future of the dairy industry in Israel

Recent increases in prices of dairy products in Israel led to consumer unrest and boycotts against dairy producers during the summer of 2011. The Israeli dairy industry is highly distorted with production quotas and administered prices for raw milk, tariff rate quotas and an oligopoly in dairy processing. Since the issue of self-sufficiency and food security is at the top of Israel's national priorities, the future of the dairy industry is generating heated debate. Thus, we use a general equilibrium model to estimate the effects associated with particular alternative policies actually discussed to liberalize the Israeli dairy industry.     

Measures of Work Satisfaction among Economic Development Practitioners*

From data collected in a mail survey of 327 urban based economic development practitioners, four dimensions of work satisfaction are proposed. Predictive correlates of these four dimensions–the expectation that practitioners create economic miracles, the rejection of formalistic activity, the sense that practitioners can be effective, and the belief that their bosses are helpful–are introduced. Overall satisfaction is highest in communities in which economic development practitioners feel they have successfully brought about public-private cooperation. This finding is interpreted in terms of the differences between process and outcome measures in evaluating work satisfaction for administrators responsible for non-routine activities.     

Nonverbal expressiveness and physical attractiveness as mediators of interpersonal perceptions

This research examines the impact of spontaneous nonverbal expressiveness and physical attractiveness on the formation of initial interpersonal impressions. It was hypothesized that in the absence of a relationship history with a person, those people who provide more spontaneous, uncensored, nonverbal information would be viewed as more interpersonally attractive. In addition, as a secondary focus of the study, data were analyzed to examine the relationship between physical attractiveness and nonverbal communication abilities. Results suggest that both physical attractiveness and nonverbal expressiveness independent of one another and in conjunction with one another positively impact on interpersonal perceptions. In addition, physical attractiveness was found to positively covary with nonverbal encoding accuracy but negatively covary with nonverbal decoding abilities.The authors wish to express their appreciation to Ross Buck and Robert Ryder for their helpful comments on an earlier draft of the paper.