Conditional Euro Area Sovereign Default Risk

We propose an empirical framework to assess the likelihood of joint and conditional sovereign default from observed CDS prices. Our model is based on a dynamic skewed-t distribution that captures all salient features of the data, including skewed and heavy-tailed changes in the price of CDS protection against sovereign default, as well as dynamic volatilities and correlations that ensure that uncertainty and risk dependence can increase in times of stress. We apply the framework to euro area sovereign CDS spreads during the euro area debt crisis. Our results reveal significant time-variation in distress dependence and spill-over effects for sovereign default risk. We investigate market perceptions of joint and conditional sovereign risk around announcements of Eurosystem asset purchases programs, and document a strong impact on joint risk.     

Using quantile regression for duration analysis

Summary Quantile regression methods are emerging as a popular technique in econometrics and biometrics for exploring the distribution of duration data. This paper discusses quantile regression for duration analysis allowing for a flexible specification of the functional relationship and of the error distribution. Censored quantile regression addresses the issue of right censoring of the response variable which is common in duration analysis. We compare quantile regression to standard duration models. Quantile regression does not impose a proportional effect of the covariates on the hazard over the duration time. However, the method cannot take account of time-varying covariates and it has not been extended so far to allow for unobserved heterogeneity and competing risks. We also discuss how hazard rates can be estimated using quantile regression methods. This paper benefitted from the helpful comments by an anonymous referee. Due to space constraints, we had to omit the details of the empirical application. These can be found in the long version of this paper, Fitzenberger and Wilke (2005). We gratefully acknowledge financial support by the German Research Foundation (DFG) through the research project ‘Microeconometric modelling of unemployment durations under consideration of the macroeconomic situation’. Thanks are due to Xuan Zhang for excellent research assistance. All errors are our sole responsibility.     

The erosion of union membership in Germany: determinants, densities, decompositions

Unionization in Germany has declined considerably during the last two decades. We estimate the impact of socioeconomic and workplace-related variables on union membership by means of Chamberlain-Mundlak correlated random effects probit models, using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel. Drawing on the estimates, we project net union densities (NUD) and analyze the differences between East and West Germany, as well as the corresponding changes in NUD over time. Nonlinear Blinder-Oaxaca-type decompositions show that changes in the composition of the work force have only played a minor role for the deunionization trends in West and East Germany. In West-East comparison, differences in the characteristics of the work force reflect a lower quality of membership matches in East Germany right after German unification.     

Milieu – ein wenig beachteter Faktor im Coaching

This article focuses on the importance of milieu for professional development, for opportunities to get certain positions in society or becoming a member of specific communities. Finding access to new milieus, dealing with the encounter of milieus is a competency, which can not really be trained. In order to dealing constructively with the issue taboos in society and in the field of consulting must be identified and over come.     

Just how multi-level is leadership research? A document co-citation analysis 1980–2013 on leadership constructs and outcomes

The use of multi-level theories and methodologies in leadership has gained momentum in recent years. However, the leadership field still suffers from a fragmented and unclear evolution and practice of multi-level approaches. The questions of how and to what extent multi-level research has evolved in both leadership phenomena and leadership outcomes, and which informal research networks drove this evolution, remain vastly unexplored. In this study, the extent of literature published between 1980 and 2013 is analyzed using a document co-citation analysis and invisible colleges' framework. This allows us to map the evolution of the multi-level intellectual structure of the leadership field. Specifically, we identify a number of distinct colleges – their conceptualization of leadership and outcomes – and trace their evolution paths over thirty years. We find a considerable fragmentation of the field, with the usage of multi-level leadership conceptualization mostly embraced by more peripheral clusters. Finally we discuss implications for further research with regard to a set of distinct trajectories for the future evolution of multi-level approaches in the leadership domain.     

Contextualizing the meaning of respect: the case of evangelicals in Brazil / Contextualización del significado del respeto: el caso de la comunidad evangélica de Brasil

This article examines the meaning of respect for evangelicals in Brazil. We were particularly interested in the roles which the recognition of equality, achievements and needs would play in the respect experiences of members of this religious minority. With regard to the sources of respect our focus was on Brazilians as a superordinate ingroup and on five different outgroups. As expected, equality recognition emerged as the dominant principle governing intragroup respect. Intergroup respect, however, was governed primarily by the principle of need recognition, especially in relations with religious outgroups. The principles of achievement and equality recognition also played a role in intergroup respect, but only in relations with secular outgroups. Implications for religious groups’ struggles for respect in modern society are discussed.     

Volunteer Performance in the Light of Organizational Success: A Systematic Literature Review

Volunteers are crucial to the functioning of nonprofit organizations. Thus, researchers in various disciplines investigate volunteer performance, broadly defined as the value of individual volunteers’ activities for the accomplishment of organizational goals. Yet a comprehensive overview is still missing. To structure this fragmented literature, the systematic review presented herein covers the antecedents and dimensions of individual volunteer performance in the light of organizational success discussed in 75 academic articles. With an integrated framework of volunteer performance, derived from theoretical considerations of organizational success and the ability–motivation–opportunity framework, this article suggests a systematic classification of current scientific knowledge about the antecedents and dimensions of volunteer performance. In turn, this review offers two instructive research avenues helping to develop a holistic picture of the antecedents and dimensions of individual volunteer performance.