CREDIT-SCORING MODELS AND THE CUT-OFF POINT—A SIMPLIFICATION

The article presents a simple method for establishing the optimal cut-off point on a credit-scoring index under a variety of conditions. A procedure for choosing an index from several candidates is also proposed, and the use of credit information in such an index is discussed.     

COMPONENTS OF VARIANCE MODELS WITH TRANSFORMATIONS

Power transformations are a popular way to improve the agreement between the observations and the assumptions in a statistical model. In this paper it is assumed that the data, after appropriate power transformation Λ, satisfies a variance components model, with independent Gaussian components. The focus is on inference for quantities which have an interpretation regardless of the choice of Λ (Carroll & Ruppert, 1981) – in particular the intraclass correlation coefficient ρ, the predicted probability of a new observation being less than a specified value and the predicted quantile. It is shown that, in the case Λ= 0, the asymptotic variance of ρ is the same, whether or not one treats Δ as estimated or as known. This supports an empirical conjecture of Solomon (1985). For predicted probabilities and predicted quantiles the variance when A is estimated is shown to be only slightly greater than the variance assuming Δ is known, except in the tails of the distribution where there can be substantial difference between the two variances.     

THE IMPACT OF BAD WRITING IN ECONOMICS

We find significant style differences between articles written by economists for their professional journals and articles by the same economists in the Wall Street Journal. We find no evidence that style influences the professional success of economists, which suggests that the private rewards to improving the quality of writing are low. Indeed, each community of scholars has probably adopted a "professionally correct" writing style, from which its members diverge little. However, scholars do alter their rhetorical style to communicate effectively with audiences other than the professional community. This suggests that intra- and inter-group (written) communication by economists is efficient.     

Minority environmental activism in Britain: From brixton to the lake district

Historically, the British environmental movement has been devoid of minority participation, but this is changing very slowly, with the emergence of ethnic minority environmental groups and multiracial environmental alliances. These groups have argued that ethnic minorities have little or no access to public funds earmarked for countryside and wildlife preservation issues. They argue that white environmental organizations do not pay attention to the needs of inner-city minority residents and minority access to the countryside. Increased access, community improvement and beautification projects, environmental education, youth training, community garden projects, and issues of environmental racism are all foci of ethnic minority environmental movements. While some white environmentalists have been supportive of them, others have been uncomfortable with them or even hostile to their existence.     

Assimilation versus multiculturalism: The views of urban Americans

Parents of children in public schools in a large American urban center, representing a number of different ethnic groups, were interviewed about their personal views and feelings toward cultural and racial diversity in America today. Three main issues were addressed: respondents' attitudes toward the maintenance of heritage cultures versus assimilation; their attitudes toward bilingualism; and their attitudes toward other groups in the community. The analyses revealed important differences in attitudes between ethnic minority groups and established white and black groups. Nonetheless, strong support was shown for the retention of heritage cultures, even among middle-class white and working-class black Americans. The working-class white American sample was distinctive in its rejection of multiculturalism and in its negative attitudes toward other ethnic and racial groups. All groups supported the idea of bilingualism for their children, and certain groups thought that public schools had an important role to play in its promotion. Overall, the results delineate a series of factors that affect intragroup and intergroup harmony and the processes of adjustment that transpire within a social system when it has to cope with ethnic and racial diversity.     

Some non-parametric tests for duration dependence: an application to UK business cycle data

A distinction between Fisher's implied data-generating process for Monte Carlo cycles and the more general Markov process leads to non-parametric tests for duration dependence. Tests are based on the method of moments, Tauchen's generalized method of moments (GMM) procedure, and a statistic whose null distribution probability limit is zero. Using finite-sample critical values obtained by Monte Carlo methods, our test results are remarkably consistent. The null distribution of the GMM test statistic for samples of the size considered is distinctly non-normal, so that asymptotic critical values give erroneous results. The tests are applied to UK business cycle data for 1854-1992. There is evidence for duration dependence in expansions but not in contractions.     

Ideology and welfare in the UK: the implications for the voluntary sector

The UK has, over recent years, moved from a welfare state to a more market-oriented system of welfare. But the extent of this change has varied considerably according to the ideological position of local government in different parts of the country. This makes it possible within one country to assess the implications for the voluntary sector of different models of welfare. This article develops a framework for looking at different welfare ideologies and the values they espouse, with reference both to the UK and to the models that exist in other countries. It then takes four examples of UK local authorities which demonstrate the different models and examines the implications for the voluntary sector. In doing so, it examines the prospects for the voluntary sector to deliver both service and political pluralism in the future.     

Strategic planning for resources

In the field or purchasing and supply, 1973 was a year to be remembered. A world-wide boom in industrialised countries produced record prices in markets for food, raw materials and manufactured goods. Rates of inflation in the U.S.A., Western Europe and Japan began to approach South American levels. The value of the dollar, the pound and other major currencies fluctuated dramatically, and the stock market experienced falls comparable to those which occurred during the slump in the thirties. Finally, 1973 was the year of the oil embargo, when oil prices were almost doubled and oil supplies to the West were cut by 15–20%, resulting in the rationing of oil and other commodities in Western Europe.By any standards, this was a momentous year. It is conceivable that supply markets will never be quite the same again. The traditional form of multi-national business, integrated from supply to consumer markets, is fast disappearing as the companies formed in developing countries to secure the supply of oil, food and raw materials are being taken over by the host governments. Indeed it may be that after the traumatic experiences of this year, negotiations for food and key raw materials will be increasingly carried out by governments rather than by private companies.To cope with shortages and higher prices in food, fuels and essential raw materials, government bodies and public and private enterprises will have to develop new capabilities. Western governments have responded quickly by setting up Ministers and Ministries for Energy and by establishing huge budgets for research into the exploration and exploitation of alternative fuels. The large oil companies have declared that they are in the “energy business” and have bought interests in nuclear power and coal.But what does the energy and resource crisis mean for the average firm? It seems that in the 1970s we are experiencing a level of competition for supplies similar to the competition for consumer markets which first produced “Marketing” in the late fifties and early sixties.     

Portfolios for learning and assessment: laying the foundations for continuing professional development

Portfolios are widely used in a range of education programmes at different levels in a number of countries. They are also well established at all stages in social work education. However, in the literature there is surprisingly little critical analysis of the application of the portfolio in social work. In this paper the authors' objective is to contribute to professional knowledge about the use of portfolios in social work. The authors are all members of the Higher Education Funding Council Self-Assessment in Professional and Higher Education Project and are concerned to develop self-assessment in social work and enhance the development of life-long learning. They begin by examining the literature about portfolios from the field of education. Findings are then analysed from a small exploratory study of the use of portfolios in practice learning on a Diploma in Social Work course. Five different but related conceptual themes which emerge from the analysis are discussed: compiling the portfolio; issues of evidence; reflection in a context of assessment; the practice teacher and the learning dialogue; and the challenge of assessment. Suggestions are offered for effective portfolio practice.