论官德建设

本文论述了官德建设是我国历代治国方略中的优秀传统 ,阐述了官德建设在以德治国中的重要地位 ,提出了在新形势下构建官德建设的办法和措施     

魏晋论说文文论探析

三国时期的论说文文论以谋求论说文独立的文学地位为指　向　。批评家们不但树立了“理”的旗帜来对抗“经”的禁锢，而且意识到了文采的价值和作家　独特的修养。晋代论说文文论较前一时期有了长足的进步。批评家数量增多，研究方法得到　改进，人们或从“辞”、“理”兼顾的角度，或从形式技巧的角度，肯定了许多风格各异的　作品。同时，汉代以来的旧观念在上述两个时期与新的见解还有所交织。     

纪念邓小平《党和国家领导制度的改革》发表22周年

本文重温邓小平同志１９８０年８月关于《党和国家领导制度的改革》的讲话，概括指出：一、其三个方面的内容：实行党政分开；适当分权；改革干部人事制度。二、政治体制改革的原则方针：改革必须坚持社会主义方向；改革必须要有利于坚持和加强党的领导。三、政治体制改革的目标取向：发展社会主义民主，走民主的制度化、法制化道路。深刻领会该讲话精神，对于推动我国新世纪的政治体制改革具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。     

要理直气壮地进行共产主义理想教育

应用SPSS10.0统计软件对我校学前教育专业98级44名学生的18门课程成绩进行了因素分析，据此探讨学前教育专业学生的能力结构，并对该专业的课程设置和改革提供若干建议。     

烹调油烟的免疫毒理学研究进展

烹调油烟是室内主要空气污染物之一，化学成分复杂，严重影响职业接触人群的健康．对烹调油烟免疫毒性的研究是全面评价其毒性作用的一个重要方面．对近几年来烹调油烟影响机体细胞免疫、体液免疫和巨噬细胞以及NK细胞功能等免疫毒性方面的研究进展作一综述．     

Bayesian analysis of mixture modelling using the multivariate t distribution

A finite mixture model using the multivariate t distribution has been shown as a robust extension of normal mixtures. In this paper, we present a Bayesian approach for inference about parameters of t-mixture models. The specifications of prior distributions are weakly informative to avoid causing nonintegrable posterior distributions. We present two efficient EM-type algorithms for computing the joint posterior mode with the observed data and an incomplete future vector as the sample. Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling schemes are also developed to obtain the target posterior distribution of parameters. The advantages of Bayesian approach over the maximum likelihood method are demonstrated via a set of real data.     

Type I error rates from likelihood‐based repeated measures analyses of incomplete longitudinal data

The last observation carried forward (LOCF) approach is commonly utilized to handle missing values in the primary analysis of clinical trials. However, recent evidence suggests that likelihood‐based analyses developed under the missing at random (MAR) framework are sensible alternatives. The objective of this study was to assess the Type I error rates from a likelihood‐based MAR approach – mixed‐model repeated measures (MMRM) – compared with LOCF when estimating treatment contrasts for mean change from baseline to endpoint (Δ). Data emulating neuropsychiatric clinical trials were simulated in a 4 × 4 factorial arrangement of scenarios, using four patterns of mean changes over time and four strategies for deleting data to generate subject dropout via an MAR mechanism. In data with no dropout, estimates of Δ and SE_Δ from MMRM and LOCF were identical. In data with dropout, the Type I error rates (averaged across all scenarios) for MMRM and LOCF were 5.49% and 16.76%, respectively. In 11 of the 16 scenarios, the Type I error rate from MMRM was at least 1.00% closer to the expected rate of 5.00% than the corresponding rate from LOCF. In no scenario did LOCF yield a Type I error rate that was at least 1.00% closer to the expected rate than the corresponding rate from MMRM. The average estimate of SE_Δ from MMRM was greater in data with dropout than in complete data, whereas the average estimate of SE_Δ from LOCF was smaller in data with dropout than in complete data, suggesting that standard errors from MMRM better reflected the uncertainty in the data. The results from this investigation support those from previous studies, which found that MMRM provided reasonable control of Type I error even in the presence of MNAR missingness. No universally best approach to analysis of longitudinal data exists. However, likelihood‐based MAR approaches have been shown to perform well in a variety of situations and are a sensible alternative to the LOCF approach. MNAR methods can be used within a sensitivity analysis framework to test the potential presence and impact of MNAR data, thereby assessing robustness of results from an MAR method. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

论发达地区农村社会阶层结构的变迁——以绍兴县西蜀阜村为例

此文以绍兴县西蜀阜村为例,基于对大量翔实资料的实证分析,阐述和探讨了经济发达的农村社区在农村工业化和城市化过程中,村落社会结构分化的历史进程、决定因素和现实状况,探讨了阶层分化与农村社会经济变迁的关系,对深化沿海发达地区中心镇村现代化进程的认识,有一定的借鉴意义。     

Multivariate distributions defined in terms of contours

The paper deals with the problem of using contours as the basis for defining probability distributions. First, the most general probability densities with given contours are obtained and the particular cases of circular and elliptical contours are dealt with. It is shown that the so-called elliptically contoured distributions do not include all possible cases. Next, the case of contours defined by polar coordinates is analyzed including its simulation and parameter estimation. Finally, the case of cumulative distribution functions with given contours is discussed. Several examples are used for illustrative purposes.     

Examples of the use of an equivalence theorem in constructing optimum experimental designs for random-effects nonlinear regression models

The problem considered is that of finding an optimum measurement schedule to estimate population parameters in a nonlinear model when the patient effects are random. The paper presents examples of the use of sensitivity functions, derived from the General Equivalence Theorem for D-optimality, in the construction of optimum population designs for such schedules. With independent observations, the theorem applies to the potential inclusion of a single observation. However, in population designs the observations are correlated and the theorem applies to the inclusion of an additional measurement schedule. In one example, three groups of patients of differing size are subject to distinct schedules. Numerical, as opposed to analytical, calculation of the sensitivity function is advocated. The required covariances of the observations are found by simulation.