Lessons from stochastic small-area population projections: the case of Waikato subregions in New Zealand

Subnational population projections in New Zealand by means of the conventional deterministic cohort-component method have had a tendency to be conservative: underprojecting fast-growing populations and overprojecting slow-growing ones. In this paper we use a stochastic population projection method as an alternative. We generate population projections for five demographically distinct administrative areas within the Waikato region of New Zealand: Hamilton City, Franklin District, Thames-Coromandel District, Otorohanga District and South Waikato District. The results are compared to official subnational deterministic projections. The accuracy of subnational population projections in New Zealand is strongly affected by the instability of migration as a component of population change. Differently from the standard cohort-component method, in which net migration levels are projected, the key parameters of our method are age-gender-area specific probabilistic net migration rates. Generally, the identified and modelled uncertainty makes the traditional ‘mid-range’ scenario of subnational deterministic projections of limited use for policy analysis or planning beyond a relatively short projection horizon. We find that the projected range of rates of population growth is wider for smaller regions and/or regions more strongly affected by net migration. Directions for further development of the methodology are suggested.     

Summarizing Risk Using Risk Measures and Risk Indices

Our society is fascinated with risk in many different areas and disciplines. One of the main ways to describe and communicate the level of risk is through risk indices, which summarize risk using numbers or categories such as words, letters, or colors. These indices are used to communicate risks to the public, understand how risk is changing over time, compare among different risks, and support decision making. Given the different methods to construct risk indices, including flawed methods such as risk matrices, this article develops specific steps that analysts can follow to create a risk index. This article emphasizes the importance of describing risk with a probability distribution, developing a numerical risk measure that summarizes the probability distribution, and finally translating the risk measure to an index. Measuring the risk is the most difficult part and requires the analyst to summarize a probability distribution into one or possibly a few numbers. The risk measure can then be transformed to a numerical or categorical index. I apply the method outlined in this article to construct a risk index that compares the risk of fatalities in aviation and highway transportation.     

Companion animals in families of children with autism spectrum disorder: Lessons learned from caregivers.

Companion animals (i.e., pets) have been increasingly recognized for the roles they play in families, including those with children with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). This cross-sectional study explored the unique functions of companion animals within families with a child with ASD. Phenomenology was used to analyze the responses of participants (N = 338) who responded to a survey offered through the Interactive Autism Network. The study initially focused on dogs; however, the analysis was forced to expand to other species due to the data provided by participants. Seven major themes emerged: bonding and benefits, learning opportunities, barriers, grief, fit (match of family characteristics with those of the companion animal), safety, and alternative animals. Successful fit between companion animals and families was often described as necessary for beneficial functions. Barriers included necessary cost and time, as well as required supervision of interactions to enhance safety of the children and animals.     

Responding to People Sleeping Rough: Dilemmas and Opportunities for Social Work

Abstract

Rough sleeping refers to the state of being literally without shelter or residing in shelter not fit for human habitation. People who sleep rough are thought to be a group who experience a range of complex problems in addition to their homelessness. Despite their small numbers relative to the broader homeless population, rough sleepers have been identified as a target group for policy and practice intervention. This article critically examines outreach responses directed toward people sleeping rough. Moving beyond traditional charity approaches or interventions that “move people on”, emerging models of “assertive outreach” have been implemented in Australia as part of broader strategies to reduce homelessness. Challenging the idea that assertive outreach is a shift from a social work approach, it is argued that interventions to actively end rough sleeping are consistent with social work principles. Indeed, this article takes it that social work must advocate for the provision of affordable housing as central to rough sleeping interventions. Housing not only enables people to achieve human dignity and worth, but the linking of housing with outreach responses to rough sleepers will facilitate a trusting and effective working relationship.     

Fathers' experiences with child welfare services

The lack of engagement of fathers by child welfare services is well‐documented in the literature as a serious problem. Towards addressing this problem, this paper reports the findings of interviews with 18 fathers about their involvement with child welfare services in Ontario, Canada. Qualitative analysis of the interviews yielded themes about what men saw as the positive and negative aspects of their involvement with child welfare. Positive aspects of service involvement for fathers included understanding and supportive workers, useful assistance from workers, being connected to useful resources and being given a ‘wake‐up call’. Negative aspects of service involvement included uncaring, unhelpful and unprofessional workers; prejudice against fathers; and experiencing the child welfare system as unresponsive, uncaring and rigid. Implications for practice are discussed with a view to improving the engagement of men in, and their experiences with, child welfare services.     

The effect of intent and character information on children's evaluations of third-party transgressions

Research in adults suggests that their perception of moral transgressions is affected by the moral character of the agent performing the transgression, such that undesirable actions enacted by ‘good’ agents are seen as less serious than those performed by ‘bad’ agents. This may be partly driven our tendency to view undesirable acts as less intentional when the agent has a perceived good moral character. It is currently unclear whether or not children make similar judgements. Therefore, we investigated if children's use of moral character information is consistent with their judgements of transgressions when the intent behind the act was ambiguous or blatant. Children aged 6–8-years (N = 60) viewed a series of six moral transgressions in which the protagonist's intent was ambiguous or blatantly harmful, and their moral character was described as being good, mixed or bad. The children were then asked how much they felt the behaviour was intentional, how severe it was and the degree of punishment it deserved. Transgressions performed by ‘good’ characters were viewed as less intentional than those by ‘bad’ characters, but only when the intent behind it was ambiguous. Similarly, transgressions performed by good characters were viewed as less severe and deserving of less punishment than those performed by bad characters, although this effect was not moderated by intent information. These pattern of findings suggest that the view of transgressions performed by good individuals as less serious than the same act performed by bad individuals is established early in development.