Surveillance of the interaction parameter of the ising model

Surveillance to detect changes of spatial patterns is of interest in many areas such as environmental control and regional analysis. Here the interaction parameter of the Ising model, is considered. A minimal sufficient statistic and its asymptotic distribution are used. It is demonstrated that the convergence to normal, distribution is rapid. The main result is that when the lattice is large, all approximations are better in several respects. It is shown that, for large lattice sizes, earlier results on surveillance of a normally distributed random variable can be used in cases of most interest. The expected delay of alarm at a fixed level of false alarm probability is examined for some examples.     

Exponentiated power Lindley power series class of distributions: Theory and applications

ABSTRACT

We introduce a new four-parameter generalization of the exponentiated power Lindley (EPL) distribution, called the exponentiated power Lindley power series (EPLPS) distribution. The new distribution arises on a latent complementary risks scenario, in which the lifetime associated with a particular risk is not observable; rather, we observe only the minimum lifetime value among all risks. The distribution exhibits a variety of bathtub-shaped hazard rate functions. It contains as particular cases several lifetime distributions. Various properties of the distribution are investigated including closed-form expressions for the density function, cumulative distribution function, survival function, hazard rate function, the rth raw moment, and also the moments of order statistics. Expressions for the Rényi and Shannon entropies are also given. Moreover, we discuss maximum likelihood estimation and provide formulas for the elements of the Fisher information matrix. Finally, two data applications are given showing flexibility and potentiality of the EPLPS distribution.     

A fortran implementation of univariate fourier series density estimation

A set of Fortran-77 subroutines is described which compute a nonparametric density estimator expressed as a Fourier series. In addition, a subroutine is given for the estimation of a cumulative distribution. Performance measures are given based on samples from a Weibull distribution. Due to small size and modest space demands, these subroutines are easily implemented on most small computers.     

Bootstrapping in least absolute value regression: an application to hypothesis testing

A Monte Carlo simulation is used to study the performance of hypothesis tests for regression coefficients when least absolute value regression methods are used. In small samples, the results of the simulation suggest that using the bootstrap method to compute standard errors will provide improved test performance     

Inferences on the lognormal mean for complete samples

In many engineering problems it is necessary to draw statistical inferences on the mean of a lognormal distribution based on a complete sample of observations. Statistical demonstration of mean time to repair (MTTR) is one example. Although optimum confidence intervals and hypothesis tests for the lognormal mean have been developed, they are difficult to use, requiring extensive tables and/or a computer. In this paper, simplified conservative methods for calculating confidence intervals or hypothesis tests for the lognormal mean are presented. In this paper, “conservative” refers to confidence intervals (hypothesis tests) whose infimum coverage probability (supremum probability of rejecting the null hypothesis taken over parameter values under the null hypothesis) equals the nominal level. The term “conservative” has obvious implications to confidence intervals (they are “wider” in some sense than their optimum or exact counterparts). Applying the term “conservative” to hypothesis tests should not be confusing if it is remembered that this implies that their equivalent confidence intervals are conservative. No implication of optimality is intended for these conservative procedures. It is emphasized that these are direct statistical inference methods for the lognormal mean, as opposed to the already well-known methods for the parameters of the underlying normal distribution. The method currently employed in MIL-STD-471A for statistical demonstration of MTTR is analyzed and compared to the new method in terms of asymptotic relative efficiency. The new methods are also compared to the optimum methods derived by Land (1971, 1973).     

Ridge Regression: Degrees of Freedom in the Analysis of Variance

It appears to be common practice with ridge regression to obtain a decomposition of the total sum of squares, and assign degrees of freedom, according to established least squares theory. This discussion notes the obvious fallacies of such an approach, and introduces a decomposition based on orthogonality, and degrees of freedom based on expected mean squares, for non-stochastic k.     

Random sampling from the watson distribution

An envelope-rejection method is used to generate random variates from the Watson distribution. The method is compact and is competitive with, if not superior to, the existing sampling algorithms. For the girdle form of the Watson distribution, a faster algorithm is proposed. As a result, Johnson's sampling algorithm for the Bingham distribution is improved.     

An improved comorbidity summary score for measuring disease burden and predicting mortality with applications to two national cohorts

Abstract

Research involving administrative healthcare data to study patient outcomes requires the investigator to account for the patient’s disease burden in order to reduce the potential for biased results. Here we develop a comorbidity summary score based on variable importance measures derived from several statistical and machine learning methods and show it has superior predictive performance to the Elixhauser and Charlson indices when used to predict 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year mortality. We used two large Veterans Administration cohorts to develop and validate the summary score and compared predictive performance using the area under ROC curve (AUC) and the Brier score.     

A generalized scheffé method of multiple comparisons

Standard resulrs on the extrema of quotients of quadratic forms are extended to the non-negative definite case. The maximum and the set over which it is achieved are characterized explicitly both in terms of generalized inverse matrices and generalized eigenvalues. These results become the basis of Scheffe type multiple comparisons in the usual way. To demonstrate their application to statistics with singular covariance matrices, the method is detailed for Mantel-Haenszel, Breslow, and Cox statistics. An example is presented illustrating a situation where the proposed Scheffe type comparisons may be better than the pairwise method.