Evaluation of Recursive Detection Methods for Turning Points in Financial Time Series

Timely identification of turning points in economic time series is important for planning control actions and achieving profitability. This paper compares sequential methods for detecting peaks and troughs in stock values and deciding the time to trade. Three semi‐parametric methods are considered: double exponential smoothing, time‐varying parameters and prediction error statistics. These methods are widely used in monitoring, forecasting and control, and their common features are recursive computation and exponential weighting of observations. The novelty of this paper is the selection of smoothing and alarm coefficients for maximisation of the gain (the difference in level between subsequent peaks and troughs) of sample data. The methods are compared on applications to leading financial series and with simulation experiments.     

The Efficiency of the Italian Judicial System: A Two Stage Data Envelopment Analysis Approach

Social Indicators Research - During the last two decades there was great attention for improved performance in the public sector. We know how important a good judicial system is: it...     

A Neo-Durkheimian analysis of a new religious movement: The case of Soka Gakkai in Italy

Soka Gakkai is one of the world’s fastest-growing religious movements and Italy figures among the western nations where this religious group has been most successful. This article aims at explaining this success-story: why has Soka Gakkai, and particularly its Italian affiliation, grown so rapidly in recent years? This research question gives the opportunity to assess the applicability of the economic theory of religion to the growth of new religious movements. Hence, in order to explain the expansion of Soka Gakkai, this work begins with an examination of the adaptive strategies developed by a Japanese organization in the Italian religious market. It is claimed, however, that a rational choice explanation cannot stand on its own and that we must take into account the dynamics of pre-contractual solidarity that promote trust, especially when the expected benefits promised by this organization to its adherents do not materialize. Moreover, these solidarity dynamics generate intense emotional gratification that works as a highly motivating incentive to sustain members’ commitment and to prevent them from dropping out. This pre-contractual solidarity is actively produced and continuously reproduced by means of ritual interaction along the lines suggested by Collins’s theory.     

Smoothing,Decomposing and Forecasting Mortality Rates

European Journal of Population - The Lee–Carter (LC) model represents a landmark paper in mortality forecasting. While having been widely accepted and adopted, the model has some limitations...     

Problematising international placements as a site of intercultural learning

This paper theorises some of the learning outcomes of a three-year project concerning student learning in international social work placements in Malaysia. The problematic issue of promoting cultural and intercultural competence through such placements is examined, where overlapping hegemonies are discussed in terms of isomorphism of social work models, that of the nation state, together with those relating to professional values and knowledge, and the tyrannies of received ideas. A critical discussion of cultural competence as the rationale for international placements is discussed in terms of the development of the graduating social worker as a self-reflexive practitioner. The development of sustainable international partnerships able to support student placement and the issue of non-symmetrical reciprocation, typical of wide socio-economic differentials across global regions, is additionally discussed.     

Impact Factors and Risk Analysis of Tropical Cyclones on a Highway Network

Coastal areas typically have high social and economic development and are likely to suffer huge losses due to tropical cyclones. These cyclones have a great impact on the transportation network, but there have been a limited number of studies about tropical‐cyclone‐induced transportation network functional damages, especially in Asia. This study develops an innovative measurement and analytical tool for highway network functional damage and risk in the context of a tropical cyclone, with which we explored the critical spatial characteristics of tropical cyclones with regard to functional damage to a highway network by developing linear regression models to quantify their relationship. Furthermore, we assessed the network's functional risk and calculated the return periods under different damage levels. In our analyses, we consider the real‐world highway network of Hainan province, China. Our results illustrate that the most important spatial characteristics were location (in particular, the midlands), travel distance, landfalling status, and origin coordinates. However, the trajectory direction did not obviously affect the results. Our analyses indicate that the highway network of Hainan province may suffer from a 90% functional damage scenario every 4.28 years. These results have critical policy implications for the transport sector in reference to emergency planning and disaster reduction.     

Pyramids and the separation between direction and control of non-financial Italian family companies

This paper uses a multiple case study analysis of ten Italian business groups controlled by families to answer the following research questions: Does the controlling shareholder, through the parent company at the top of the pyramidal group, always exercise the direction activity of the subsidiaries? If not, why does the parent company not exercise that activity, delegating it to its subsidiaries? What is the degree of separation between control and direction within the group? A high percentage of our sample declares not to be directed by the parent company. However, the presence of family members on the subsidiaries’ boards and the low boards’ independence makes the separation between direction and control more apparent than real. The credibility of the separation is questioned mostly for those non-directed subsidiaries that operate in the same sector. Our analysis suggests some elements, in order to understand in which cases the direction activity by the parent (or its delegation to the subsidiaries) should be interpreted positively or negatively in terms of controlling shareholder expropriation, by proposing to use the degree of separation between direction and control as a proxy to assess indirectly the degree of that expropriation.     

A Two-Step Approach to Analyze Satisfaction Data

In this paper a two-step procedure based on Nonlinear Principal Component Analysis (NLPCA) and Multilevel models (MLM) for the analysis of satisfaction data is proposed. The basic hypothesis is that observed ordinal variables describe different aspects of a latent continuous variable, which depends on covariates connected with individual and contextual features. NLPCA is used to measure the level of a latent variable and MLM is adopted for detecting individual and environmental determinants of the level. This approach is suggested to analyze users’ satisfaction. In fact, NLPCA is used to create a synthetic continuous measure of satisfaction (first step) and MLM are used to detect the role of external (individual or environmental) variables that can affect the level itself (second step). The proposed two-step procedure is applied to the Eurobarometer survey data about opinion of European citizens on services of general interest (SGI) aiming to evaluate and compare the opinion about SGI in different countries. The focus is on overall level of satisfaction about four major public services: fixed telephone, electricity supply, postal and rail services. The item analyzed, which are named manifest variables, are: access easiness, price, quality, information clarity and contract fairness, as reported in the 2002 Eurobarometer survey. In the first step these variables are used to set up the synthetic indicator (the overall level) of satisfaction and, in the second step, a MLM is used to test the impact of some explanatory variables on this satisfaction.     

The Effects of Technical Change on Skill Requirements: An Empirical Analysis

Abstract. This essay offers an empirical analysis of the effects of technical change on skill. Firstly, with the increasing diffusion of more and more mechanization and, in this decade, with the advent of microelectronics, this theme has been widely debated both in theory and in empirical analyses. These latter are usually based on a measurement of skill in terms of the parameters adopted in the job evaluation. My critique to that approach is both on the job evaluation criteria adopted, and on the unclear distinction between quantitative and qualitative effects of technical change on labour requirements. The following analysis will show the importance of that distinction in interpreting data. The case study is the production of ceramic tiles in Italy. The analysis is articulated in three parts. The first discusses an indicator of technical level of ceramic tile production. This indicator refers to the ‘scale of mechanization’ proposed by Bright in 1958. The oldest and the most up-to-date techniques in use in the early 1980's are compared with regard both to the level of mechanization and to the number of workers required at each task at factory level. This analysis is the premiss for the distinction between quantitative and qualitative effects of technical change. This—together with the discussion of a measurement of skill based on job content—is examined in the second part. The conclusion of the case study and a critical analysis of the main contributions on this topic are in the third part.