中国基层社会治理政策变迁:演化、特征与经验——基于1978-2019年国务院政策文本分析

基层社会治理是国家治理体系的重要基础,中国基层社会治理政策随着经济社会发展在国家治理体系变迁中逐渐形成了独特的治理方略和中国经验。基层社会治理政策涉及的领域众多,为准确提炼出其核心内容,本文基于文献关键词的主题聚类结果,选取改革开放以来国务院关于基层社会治理的政策文本,通过发文时间、类型分布等计量分析中国基层社会治理政策变迁总体脉络。运用NLPIR汉语分词系统对政策标题进行文本深度挖掘,根据政策热点主题和政策变迁趋势等,将中国基层社会治理政策演化分为恢复重建阶段、宏观调控阶段、重心转移阶段和系统推进阶段。基于多源流理论探析政策变迁中问题源流、政治源流与政策源流的耦合特征,发现中国基层社会治理政策从形式、动力、主体和目标四个层面逐渐形成了突发性变迁与渐进性变迁并存、内生性驱动和外在性拉动结合、党依法执政与政府依法行政共同推进、坚持以人民为中心和问题为导向创新的中国经验,为发挥中国基层社会治理的政策优势提供有益借鉴。     

The disaster relief and social work after the Wenchuan earthquake in Mainland China

ABSTRACT

This paper mainly focuses on the development of disaster social work in Mainland China and the intervention of social work in disaster relief. Before the Wenchuan earthquake and in the initial stage of post-earthquake, disaster social work was mainly based on individual psychotherapy; from the earthquake to the year of 2012 in which post-earthquake recovery and reconstruction was completed, the disaster relief began to emphasise community building and integration, while the basic framework for disaster social work was also established. Social workers begin to explore the new mode of developmental and localised disaster social work. By combining with the practical experiences from disaster social work, this paper tries to highlight the dilemmas confronting disaster relief in Mainland China and put forward some corresponding countermeasures and suggestions, which could improve the future disaster relief system in Mainland China.     

Acceptance of automation manufacturing technology in China: an examination of perceived norm and organizational efficacy

Abstract

With a shift to more automation technology, social acceptance of technology plays an important role in the manufacturing sector. To what extent this occurs, and affects the adoption of technology, has been less researched, but is important in deciding how such technology is introduced, and the nature of the shift from labour-intensive manufacturing to automation. This research applies the revised technology acceptance model (TAM) to examine the impact of social and individual antecedents on the acceptance of automation manufacturing technology. Survey data are collected from 258 Chinese manufacturers. Results suggest that perceived norms significantly affect organizational intention to use automation manufacturing technology both directly and via perceived usefulness; organizational efficacy explains the intention to use via mediating effect of perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use. This research is one of the first extending and applying TAM from individuals to organizations.     

《嘉绒译语》中的嘉绒话音系及其注音特点

《嘉绒译语》记录了清代前期的嘉绒四土话,通过其中的藏文和汉字注音可以大致归纳近300年前嘉绒话音系。《嘉绒译语》中藏文和汉字都有给嘉绒话注音的功能,均不容忽视,但也都存在一定的局限性。     

首都第二机场建设与航空人才需求调研

首都第二机场的建设已成定局,由此而引起的大量人才需求是各层次学校所关注的焦点。北京经济管理职业学院是否能抓住这一得天独厚的机遇,将是未来几年对北京经济管理职业学院的考验,因此根据近几年来对首都二机场建设的资料的收集和调研,了解了机场建设对航空人才的需求,为学院的发展提供了建设性的参考性意见。     

Tail asymptotic of discounted aggregate claims with compound dependence under risky investment

This paper considers the tail asymptotic of discounted aggregate claims with compound dependence under risky investment. The price of risky investment is modeled by a geometric Lévy process, while claims are modeled by a one-sided linear process whose innovations further obeying a so-called upper tail asymptotic independence. When the innovations are heavy tailed, we derive some uniform asymptotic formulas. The results show that the linear dependence has significant impact on the tail asymptotic of discounted aggregate claims but the upper tail asymptotic independence is negligible.     

无人机军事化利用的国际法规制

无人机从20世纪初初具雏形到今天运用于许多领域,其军事化发展进程总体上看从未停止。国际法上虽然承认军事化无人机存在的合法性,但当它被用于诉诸战争权的行使时却依然存在争议,并且自主无人机需要国际人道法考量。军事化无人机必须在国际法框架下行使。在用于诉诸战争权时,应该谨慎解释"国家同意""国家同意的限制""必要性""相称性"等概念,并且严格区分普通无人机与自主无人机对国际人道主义法的挑战,让军事化无人机可以更加规范地被利用。     

Elementary renewal theorems for widely dependent random variables with applications to precise large deviations

Abstract

On the basis of Wang and Cheng (J. Math. Anal. Appl. 384 (2011) 597–606), this paper further investigates elementary renewal theorems for counting processes generated by random walks with widely orthant dependent increments. The obtained results improve the corresponding ones of the above-mentioned paper mainly in the sense of weakening the moment conditions on the positive parts of the increments. Meanwhile, a revised version of strong law of large numbers for random walks with widely orthant dependent increments is established, which improves Theorem 1.4 of Wang and Cheng (2011 Wang, Y., and D. Cheng. 2011. Basic renewal theorems for a random walk with widely dependent increments and their applications. Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications 384 (2):597–606. doi:10.1016/j.jmaa.2011.06.010.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) by enlarging the regions of dominating coefficients. Finally, by using the above results, some precise large deviation results for a nonstandard renewal risk model are established, in which the innovations are widely orthant dependent random variables with common heavy tails, and the inter-arrival times are also widely orthant dependent.     

Likelihood ratio order of parallel systems under multiple-outlier models

This paper studies the likelihood ratio ordering of parallel systems under multiple-outlier models. We introduce a partial order, the so-called θ-order, and show that the θ-order between the parameter vectors of the parallel systems implies the likelihood ratio order between the systems.