Fertility preferences and subsequent childbearing in Africa and Asia: A synthesis of evidence from longitudinal studies in 28 populations

Survey data on fertility preferences have played a central but controversial role in fertility research and advocacy for family planning. We summarize evidence from longitudinal studies in 28 Asian and African populations on the relationship between preferences and subsequent childbearing. While we found no consistent association between women's desire to delay childbearing and subsequent fertility, the baseline desire of women to stop childbearing was a powerful predictor of subsequent fertility in all populations and increased in strength as overall contraceptive use in the study populations rose. Partners’ desire also exercised some influence but was of modest importance in most populations. However, the correspondence between desire to stop and behaviour was found to be far from perfect. Weak implementation of preferences by contraception is likely to be the major cause of this preference–behaviour discrepancy. Uncertainty and instability in preferences may also contribute to the discrepancy, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa.     

SHORT REVIEWS

Books reviewed in this article: Helen Macbeth and Paul Collinson (eds.) Human Population Dynamics: Cross‐Disciplinary Perspectives Jane Menken, Ann K. Blanc, and Cynthia B. Lloyd (eds.) Training and Support of Developing‐Country Population Scientists: A Panel Report Erin Phelps, Frank F. Furstenberg Jr., and Anne Colby (eds.) Looking at Lives: American Longitudinal Studies of the Twentieth Century Stephen H. Schneider, Armin Rosencranz, and John O. Niles (eds.) Climate Change Policy: A Survey United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees Statistical Yearbook 2001: Refugees, Asylum‐seekers and Other Persons of Concern—Trends in Displacement, Protection and Solutions World Bank World Development Report 2003. Sustainable Development in a Dynamic World: Transforming Institutions, Growth, and Quality of Life World Health Organization World Health Report 2002: Reducing Risks, Promoting Healthy Life     

Adapting Fertility Exposure Analysis to the Study of Fertility Change

Fertility exposure analysis was developed recently by Hobcraft and Little in order to evaluate the relative importance of the various proximate determinants upon levels of current fertility. In the present paper we extend the analysis to the study of changes in fertility between two cross-sectional surveys. We show how to express fertility change as a product of terms which represent changes in the proximate determinants. The model of change is adapted to a log-linear framework, in which the proximate determinants on the one hand, and socio-economic variables such as education, on the other, are considered together. A few simplifications of the method are also suggested so that fewer demands are made on data. The model and its possible interpretations are illustrated with pairs of surveys from Pakistan and Mexico. In each pair, one survey was part of the WFS programme and the other was very similar but conducted five years later.     

Biosocial models: Can demographers ignore them?

Social demographers must take seriously the challenge to dominant theoretical paradigms that is posed by biosocial models. Accumulating empirical evidence documents the significant contribution of biological variables to the determination of social behaviors, including demographic behaviors. The simplest biosocial models may prove inadequate in social demographic research. More appropriate models may need to allow for causal relationships between biological and social determinants, and for effects that are interactive, non-linear, and discontinuous. While the articulation and testing of such models is unattainable at present, considerable insight can be gained by adding selected biological variables to ongoing demographic research. Demographic surveys should incorporate features of behavioral genetic designs. The chief short-term obstacles to the application of biosocial models in demography are disclinary boundaries; that is, the obstacles are institutional, not scientific.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Workshop on Biosocial Factors, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, 12 October 1994.     

Marketing segmentation research—An application to bank services

The research reported here analyses data relating to bank services obtained by a stratified random sampling technique using stepwise linear regression and canonical correlation for the purpose of illustrating the application of segmentation principles to marketing research.