A modified LGB method for detecting significant effects based on a half-normal probability plot

In analyzing data from unreplicated factorial designs, the half-normal probability plot is commonly used to screen for the ‘vital few’ effects. Recently, many formal methods have been proposed to overcome the subjectivity of this plot. Lawson (1998) (hereafter denoted as LGB) suggested a hybrid method based on the half-normal probability plot, which is a blend of Lenth (1989) and Loh (1992) method. The method consists of fitting a simple least squares line to the inliers, which are determined by the Lenth method. The effects exceeding the prediction limits based on the fitted line are candidates for the vital few effects. To improve the accuracy of partitioning the effects into inliers and outliers, we propose a modified LGB method (hereafter denoted as the Mod_LGB method), in which more outliers can be classified by using both the Carling’s modification of the box plot (Carling, 2000) and Lenth method. If no outlier exists or there is a wide range in the inliers as determined by the Lenth method, more outliers can be found by the Carling method. A simulation study is conducted in unreplicated $2^4$ designs with the number of active effects ranging from 1 to 6 to compare the efficiency of the Lenth method, original LGB methods, and the proposed modified version of the LGB method.     

Comparison of leadership styles in Confucian Asian countries

The purpose of this study was to examine the overall impact of four leadership styles (charismatic, directive, participative, and supportive) in four Confucian Asian countries, China, Japan, South Korea, and Singapore, by reviewing recent studies conducted in those countries. By reviewing 38 studies selected from 430 studies published between 2005 and 2016, we identify the impact of the four leadership styles in the four Asian countries. We start with the research question and purpose, and then propose criteria for selecting the relevant recent studies followed by a review of cultural heritage and its influence on leadership in the four Asian countries. We summarize and review the studies and, finally, discuss the theoretical and practical contributions of this study.     

“破冰”还是“破茧”:中国文学走出去——顾彬教授与方汉文教授的对话

中国文学走出去面临"破冰"1与"破茧"2的双重挑战。对话双方从中国现当代小说与古典小说传统之间因时代变迁所形成的非传统性、传统小说与西方小说艺术表达与再现方式的不同之处、如何从世界文学史角度来评价中国小说诗歌价值等问题交流看法。也无可避免地涉及到当代中国作家的评价,双方观点同异并存,既有交锋又有融合,体现了不同文化观念在这一话题评价的对话性,文中充满了直率的评价,目标是为了中国文学的世界化,而不是褒贬人物。     

Utilizing Bayesian predictive power in clinical trial design

The Bayesian paradigm provides an ideal platform to update uncertainties and carry them over into the future in the presence of data. Bayesian predictive power (BPP) reflects our belief in the eventual success of a clinical trial to meet its goals. In this paper we derive mathematical expressions for the most common types of outcomes, to make the BPP accessible to practitioners, facilitate fast computations in adaptive trial design simulations that use interim futility monitoring, and propose an organized BPP-based phase II-to-phase III design framework.     

Modeling the Adenoma and Serrated Pathway to Colorectal CAncer (ASCCA)

Several colorectal cancer (CRC) screening models have been developed describing the progression of adenomas to CRC. Currently, there is increasing evidence that serrated lesions can also develop into CRC. It is not clear whether screening tests have the same test characteristics for serrated lesions as for adenomas, but lower sensitivities have been suggested. Models that ignore this type of colorectal lesions may provide overly optimistic predictions of the screen‐induced reduction in CRC incidence. To address this issue, we have developed the Adenoma and Serrated pathway to Colorectal CAncer (ASCCA) model that includes the adenoma‐carcinoma pathway and the serrated pathway to CRC as well as characteristics of colorectal lesions. The model structure and the calibration procedure are described in detail. Calibration resulted in 19 parameter sets for the adenoma‐carcinoma pathway and 13 for the serrated pathway that match the age‐ and sex‐specific adenoma and serrated lesion prevalence in the COlonoscopy versus COlonography Screening (COCOS) trial, Dutch CRC incidence and mortality rates, and a number of other intermediate outcomes concerning characteristics of colorectal lesions. As an example, we simulated outcomes for a biennial fecal immunochemical test screening program and a hypothetical one‐time colonoscopy screening program. Inclusion of the serrated pathway influenced the predicted effectiveness of screening when serrated lesions are associated with lower screening test sensitivity or when they are not removed. To our knowledge, this is the first model that explicitly includes the serrated pathway and characteristics of colorectal lesions. It is suitable for the evaluation of the (cost)effectiveness of potential screening strategies for CRC.     

The Effects of Corporate Elitism and Groupthink on Organizational Empathy in Crisis Situations

This study is to empirically testify that corporate elitism is an antecedent to groupthink, which prevents organizational empathy from working effectively in crises. The current study is expected to expand the boundary of crisis management literature into a company’s crisis-preparedness before a crisis occurs. The findings offer the useful guidance to organizations on how to better manage their crisis proneness through identifying the early signs of corporate elitism and groupthink.     

英语中汉语借词研究新探

英语词汇中存在大量源自其他语言的借词,其中也包括一定数量的汉语词。对英语外来语词典的考察及问卷调查发现,一部分汉语借词具有较高的认知度,而有一些词则不为英语母语者所熟悉。虽然对于"中国英语"是否可以看作是英语的一种变体还有争议,但在世界英语的语境下,汉语借词正在为英语词汇的扩展做出新的贡献。     

Likelihood ratio tests for multivariate normality

This paper presents some powerful omnibus tests for multivariate normality based on the likelihood ratio and the characterizations of the multivariate normal distribution. The power of the proposed tests is studied against various alternatives via Monte Carlo simulations. Simulation studies show our tests compare well with other powerful tests including multivariate versions of the Shapiro–Wilk test and the Anderson–Darling test.     

On nonparametric variogram estimation

A critical step for geostatistical prediction is estimation of variogram from the data. One of the popular methods estimating variogram is a smoothed version of classical nonparametric variogram estimator. In this paper we investigate its theoretical and empirical properties to provide useful information for using it. The main results are based on asymptotic theories (i.e., risk and central limit theorem) under nearly infill domain sampling. Simulation is also employed to make our points.     

基于最近邻分析的空气质量时空数据异常点识别

空气质量数据具有在时间上连续、空间上相关的特点,这提高了异常点识别的难度.本文提出在时间维度上运用移动平均法,在空间维度上运用反距离加权法对观测值进行预测并求残差的解决思路,从而将时空数据的异常点识别问题转化为二维残差值的异常点检测问题.通过仿真验证表明新方法具有良好的检出力.最后将新方法应用于北京市实际观测数据,取得了满意的识别效果.