What to Do at Low Doses: A Bounding Approach for Economic Analysis

To quantify the health benefits of environmental policies, economists generally require estimates of the reduced probability of illness or death. For policies that reduce exposure to carcinogenic substances, these estimates traditionally have been obtained through the linear extrapolation of experimental dose-response data to low-exposure scenarios as described in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment (1986). In response to evolving scientific knowledge, EPA proposed revisions to the guidelines in 1996. Under the proposed revisions, dose-response relationships would not be estimated for carcinogens thought to exhibit nonlinear modes of action. Such a change in cancer-risk assessment methods and outputs will likely have serious consequences for how benefit-cost analyses of policies aimed at reducing cancer risks are conducted. Any tendency for reduced quantification of effects in environmental risk assessments, such as those contemplated in the revisions to EPA's cancer-risk assessment guidelines, impedes the ability of economic analysts to respond to increasing calls for benefit-cost analysis. This article examines the implications for benefit-cost analysis of carcinogenic exposures of the proposed changes to the 1986 Guidelines and proposes an approach for bounding dose-response relationships when no biologically based models are available. In spite of the more limited quantitative information provided in a carcinogen risk assessment under the proposed revisions to the guidelines, we argue that reasonable bounds on dose-response relationships can be estimated for low-level exposures to nonlinear carcinogens. This approach yields estimates of reduced illness for use in a benefit-cost analysis while incorporating evidence of nonlinearities in the dose-response relationship. As an illustration, the bounding approach is applied to the case of chloroform exposure.     

Determinants of housing quality: A comparison of white,African-American,and Hispanic single-parent women

This study examines housing quality among three groups of single-parent women: white, African-American, and Hispanic. Three indicators of housing quality—crowding, affordability, and satisfaction—are used to discover the extent to which these groups experience housing problems. This study also explores differences and similarities in the factors that precipitate problems in housing quality for these three groups of single parents. Findings suggest important differences and similarities in the nature of housing quality problems among white, African-American, and Hispanic single-parent women. The specified variables explained about 20% of the variance in crowding, housing affordability, and housing satisfaction. On measures of objective and subjective housing quality, white single mothers are better housed than their African-American or Hispanic counterparts. Hispanic single mothers have the largest housing cost burden and average more persons per household than the other groups. African-Americans are twice as likely as either group to live in low-quality housing and reported the lowest average satisfaction with their housing. Her research interests include housing and neighborhood assessment and women and public policy issues. She has recently published articles inUrban Affairs Quarterly andHousing and Society on housing and neighborhood assessment criteria among black urban households and the housing cost burden of various groups of female-headed households. She received her Ph.D. from Ohio State University. Her research interests include the housing adjustment behavior of women and public policy. She has recently completed her thesis on the role of noncustodial parents in determining the quality of life of their children. She is also the recipient of the Tessie Agan Award for research excellence from the American Association of Housing Educators for a paper titled “Unterstanding Constraints and Residential Satisfaction among Low-Income Single-Parent Families.”     

Assessing reoffense risk with juvenile sexual offenders

This article summarizes a two-year study of juvenile sexual offenders in Washington. Both community-based and institution-based treatment programs were evaluated. A typical profile of the juvenile sexual offender is offered, as well as recidivism data from a mean 20-month follow-up period.     

A simultaneous-equations model of the relationship between public sector bargaining legislation and unionization

This paper estimates a simultaneous-equations model with public sector bargaining laws and union membership treated as jointly-determined variables. The extent of public sector unionization has a significant positive influence on the passage of prolabor bargaining legislation and bargaining legislation has strong, independent effects on the extent of public sector unionization. We gratefully acknowledge the research support provided by Minbo Kim and Parisun Chantonahom.     

Farmers,the Practice of Farming and the Future of Agroforestry: An Application of Bourdieu's Concepts of Field and Habitus

Abstract Agroforestry, the practice of raising crops and trees together in ways that are mutually beneficial, provides farmers with an alternative to more conventional farming practices. In this paper, we apply Bourdieu's concepts of “field” and “habitus” in an attempt to better understand the practice of farming and the role that agroforestry may have in farming systems. Analysis is based on qualitative and quantitative interviews of farmers and other key informants in two regions, Fox‐Wyaconda Watershed in northeast Missouri and Scott County in southeast Missouri. Within the field of farming, farmers emphasized the importance of economic, family and rental relations. Important habitus considerations include different interpretations of what constitutes farming and what constitutes forestry. Based on Bourdieu's theoretical framework, we offer three alternative paths of social change that may lead to more widespread utilization of agroforestry.     

What Do Grandmothers Think about Self‐esteem? American and Taiwanese Folk Theories Revisited

The study investigates European American and Taiwanese grandmothers’ folk theories of childrearing and self‐esteem, building on an earlier comparison of mothers from the same families. Adopting methods that privilege local meanings, we bring grandmothers’ voices into the conversation about childrearing, thereby contributing to a deeper understanding of intergenerational nuances in folk theories. In each cultural case, 16 grandmothers of 3‐year‐olds participated in in‐depth interviews that were customized according to local communicative norms. Although self‐esteem emerged as a central organizing concept in the folk theories of European American mothers, grandmothers spoke in two voices, either echoing their daughters or invoking a counter‐discourse of wariness towards self‐esteem. By contrast, Taiwanese mothers and grandmothers resembled one another—but differed from their American counterparts—in treating self‐esteem as peripheral in childrearing. Results contribute to the growing consensus that self‐esteem is a culture‐specific childrearing goal and suggest that the European American tendency to valorize self‐esteem varies by generation.     

Uncertainty Analysis for Computer Model Projections of Hurricane Losses

Projecting losses associated with hurricanes is a complex and difficult undertaking that is wrought with uncertainties. Hurricane Charley, which struck southwest Florida on August 13, 2004, illustrates the uncertainty of forecasting damages from these storms. Due to shifts in the track and the rapid intensification of the storm, real-time estimates grew from 2 to 3 billion dollars in losses late on August 12 to a peak of 50 billion dollars for a brief time as the storm appeared to be headed for the Tampa Bay area. The storm hit the resort areas of Charlotte Harbor near Punta Gorda and then went on to Orlando in the central part of the state, with early poststorm estimates converging on a damage estimate in the 28 to 31 billion dollars range. Comparable damage to central Florida had not been seen since Hurricane Donna in 1960. The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) has recognized the role of computer models in projecting losses from hurricanes. The FCHLPM established a professional team to perform onsite (confidential) audits of computer models developed by several different companies in the United States that seek to have their models approved for use in insurance rate filings in Florida. The team's members represent the fields of actuarial science, computer science, meteorology, statistics, and wind and structural engineering. An important part of the auditing process requires uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to be performed with the applicant's proprietary model. To influence future such analyses, an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been completed for loss projections arising from use of a Holland B parameter hurricane wind field model. Uncertainty analysis quantifies the expected percentage reduction in the uncertainty of wind speed and loss that is attributable to each of the input variables.     

Modelling data from single-photon emission computerized tomography

The completely random character of radioactive disintegration provides the basis of a strong justification for a Poisson linear model for single-photon emission computed tomography data, which can be used to produce reconstructions of isotope densities, whether by maximum likelihood or Bayesian methods. However, such a model requires the construction of a matrix of weights, which represent the mean rates of arrival at each detector of photons originating from each point within the body space. Two methods of constructing these weights are discussed, and reconstructions resulting from phantom and real data are presented.