中国国外资产人民币化

自2008年全球金融危机以来,中国主动出击,采取一系列措施推进人民币的国际化,更多的国际债权以人民币而不是以美元定值.从中国国际资产与负债的货币组合这一角度讨论影响人民币国际化前景的因素.在众多的影响因素中,包含人民币的基础价值与管理.     

ESTIMATION OF THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE IN A DEMONSTRATION

It is of interest to estimate the size of a crowd in a demonstration. We propose a practical method to obtain an estimate of the size of the crowd and its standard error. This method has been implemented in practice and, compared with other counting methods, is found to be more efficient, more timely and have less scope for bias. The method described in this paper was motivated by the annual 1 July demonstrations in Hong Kong, and data from the 2006 demonstration are used as an example of the proposed method.     

A Proportional Odds Beta-Binomial Model for Evaluating the Effect of Treatment in Cross-Over Studies with Baseline Covariates: An Application to Condom Failure Data

Cross-over trials with correlated Bernoulli outcomes are common designs. In condom functionality studies, for example, an indicator of condom failure is reported for each sex act using standard or experimental condoms. Two popular analysis methods for such data are Generalized Estimating Equations and logit-normal random effects models. An alternative random effects model, the beta-binomial, is commonly used in contexts involving only between-cluster effects. The flexibility of the beta distribution and the interpretation of random effects as cluster-specific failure probabilities make it appealing, and we consider an extension of the model to account for within-cluster treatment effects using proportional odds assumptions.     

Further Investigation of the Uncertain Unit Root in GNP

A more powerful version of the augmented Dickey–Fuller test and a test that has trend stationarity as the null are applied to U.S. gross national product. Simulated critical values generated from plausible trend- and difference-stationary models are used to minimize possible finite-sample biases. The discriminatory power of the two tests is evaluated using alternative-specific rejection frequencies. For postwar quarterly data, these two tests do not provide a definite conclusion. When analyzing annual data over the 1869–1986 period, however, the unit-root null is rejected, but the trend-stationary null is not.     

A generalized drop-the-loser rule for multi-treatment clinical trials

Urn models are popular for response adaptive designs in clinical studies. Among different urn models, Ivanova's drop-the-loser rule is capable of producing superior adaptive treatment allocation schemes. Ivanova [2003. A play-the-winner-type urn model with reduced variability. Metrika 58, 1–13] obtained the asymptotic normality only for two treatments. Recently, Zhang et al. [2007. Generalized drop-the-loser urn for clinical trials with delayed responses. Statist. Sinica, in press] extended the drop-the-loser rule to tackle more general circumstances. However, their discussion is also limited to only two treatments. In this paper, the drop-the-loser rule is generalized to multi-treatment clinical trials, and delayed responses are allowed. Moreover, the rule can be used to target any desired pre-specified allocation proportion. Asymptotic properties, including strong consistency and asymptotic normality, are also established for general multi-treatment cases.     

The Demand for Gasoline in China: a Cointegration Analysis

The economic reforms in China since 1979 and consequent increases in disposable income have caused total gasoline consumption to soar nearly 240% between 1980 and 1999. As the growth rate of gasoline consumption is expected to be high due to the increased economic activity resulting from China's re-accession to the WTO, the government must understand the implications for economic growth and balance of payments. Using cointegration techniques, it was found that, between 1980 and 1999, demand for gasoline was relatively inelastic to price changes, both in the short and long terms. The long-run income elasticity was 0.97, implying that the future growth rate of gasoline consumption will be close to the growth rate of the economy, which is predicted to be about 7% per annum from 2001 to 2005, and 5-6% over the decade thereafter.     

Chinese Migrants' Class Mobility in Hong Kong

Resources such as education and social networks are likely to contribute to migrants' upward mobility in the class hierarchy. Moreover, according to structural fit theory, the contribution tends to be contingent on age and social network size. The contingency is the major concern of the present study of mainland Chinese migrants in Hong Kong, which is somewhat different from the Chinese mainland economically, politically and even culturally. In this study, we show that the conditions for upward mobility are some human and social resources and their various combinations. Notably, schooling after arrival in Hong Kong contributed more to the upward mobility of the migrant who was younger or had a larger social network at the time of arrival in Hong Kong. Purportedly, promoting the migrant's integration with the school and local social network would prepare the migrant for upward mobility.     

Social work guanxi: a reflexive account of the social work relationship in the Chinese context

ABSTRACT

In a guanxi-driven acquaintanceship, the worker, the client, and the community are tied together more closely than they are in mutually agreed-upon service contracts. This paper re-examines the contemporary boundaries in the social work relationship, especially in Asian nations such as China, where ‘relationships’ are generally translated and perceived as ‘guanxi’. The indigenisation of social work must be managed with care when translating from West to East. Drawing from the experiences of community development projects in rural Hong Kong, this paper discusses how guanxi among social workers, clients and other stakeholders in Chinese communities might challenge the professionalism of social work and breach the boundaries of social work relationships.     

Desistance-Focused Treatment and Asset-Based Programming for Juvenile Offender Reintegration: A Review of Research Evidence

Research indicates that juvenile delinquency, if not intervened earlier, could potentially lead to the youth’s future involvement with the criminal justice system as an adult. This study identifies research evidence to support the building of a desistance-focused pathway for juvenile offenders positively reentering society. It examines the “desistance” components of treatment programs and assets that help ex-offending adolescents achieve success in reintegrating back to the community. A review of research evidence summarized the empirical data from twelve studies published between 2007 and 2017. Diverse service components were found in addressing the treatment needs of young offenders, indicating that multiple services are needed to lower their recidivism rate. These diverse components were benchmarked with the 40-asset model developed by the Search Institute, providing additional support that these service components are resilience-based and desistance-focused. Both internal and external assets were emphasized in these reviewed studies. Highlighted are the holistic nature of asset-based programs and service components for helping juveniles gain internal awareness and access external resources. A balanced treatment model is recommended with an emphasis on building assets for designing a holistic plan of reintegration to help juveniles reenter society and stay crime-free.     

Brief Report: Child Sexual Abuse Inquiries in Hong Kong, 2000–2017

Community advocates in Hong Kong found no formal curriculum on child sexual abuse (CSA) prevention and started a newspaper column in 1999 to disseminate public education. This study analyzed the inquiries sent to this prevention column from 2000 to 2017. Content analysis found that, in 515 inquiries, 170 (33%) reported CSA incidents. Based on age information in 147 incidents, female abusers (n?=?28) targeted victims averaging 6.48 years of age, which is 3.08 years significantly younger than those abused by male abusers (n?=?119). In 82 inquiries with abusers’ age information, 42 minor “abusers” were reported. Early sex education is highly recommended.