„100 Jahre und kein bisschen glücklich“

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Financial Variables and the Simulated Out-of-Sample Forecastability of U.S. Output Growth Since 1985: An Encompassing Approach

We reconsider the out-of-sample forecasting ability of a large number of financial variables with respect to real output growth over the 1985:1–1999:4 period. We show that models including financial variables display almost no forecasting ability relative to an autoregressive benchmark model over this period according to a mean squared forecast error metric. However, tests based on forecast encompassing indicate that many financial variables do, in fact, contain information that is useful for forecasting real output growth over the 1985:1–1999:4 out-of-sample period. Our results suggest that the extant literature exaggerates the demise of the forecasting power of financial variables with respect to real activity since the mid-1980s.     

A review and discussion of prospective statistical surveillance in public health

Summary. A review of methods suggested in the literature for sequential detection of changes in public health surveillance data is presented. Many researchers have noted the need for prospective methods. In recent years there has been an increased interest in both the statistical and the epidemiological literature concerning this type of problem. However, most of the vast literature in public health monitoring deals with retrospective methods, especially spatial methods. Evaluations with respect to the statistical properties of interest for prospective surveillance are rare. The special aspects of prospective statistical surveillance and different ways of evaluating such methods are described. Attention is given to methods that include only the time domain as well as methods for detection where observations have a spatial structure. In the case of surveillance of a change in a Poisson process the likelihood ratio method and the Shiryaev–Roberts method are derived.     

Maneuvering through Hostile Environments: How Firms Leverage Product and Process Innovativeness

Is focusing on innovativeness the appropriate organizational response in hostile environments? This study addresses four distinct forms of hostile environments: market decline, restrictiveness, competition, and resource scarcity. The research draws on contingency theory to explain how these forms of hostility affect product innovativeness, process innovativeness, and firm performance. While the extant literature has investigated the effects of hostile environments on performance, little has been done to distinguish between different forms of hostility and, in turn, their potential effect on product and process innovativeness. We argue that investments in product and process innovativeness are either fostered or hindered, contingent on the form of hostile pressures from the external operating environment. These firm responses should in turn suppress the negative effects of hostility on performance. A survey using newly developed measurement scales for hostile environments was used to collect data from 148 small and medium‐sized manufacturing plants. The results provide evidence that generally supports our hypotheses. More specifically, the direct effects of the four forms of hostile environments impact product and process innovativeness differently. Likewise, the suppression and consistent mediation effects of product and process innovativeness differ depending upon the type of hostile environment, suggesting that manufacturers consider applying these capabilities contingent upon the type of hostile climate they face. Therefore, to understand how firms leverage product and process innovativeness, hostile environments are best differentiated into categories rather than being aggregated.     

南宋时期的《中庸》与道统——历史与学术背景

由于“中”“庸”两词语义上的模糊性,其哲学含义颇为复杂。从郑玄到二程、吕祖谦,尤其是朱熹,都对“中庸”进行了解释,现代学者对《中庸》书名的释义更是多种多样。对于《中庸》的时代以及与子思的关系问题,中国历代学者以及西方的汉学家都提出了不同的观点,至今仍然莫衷一是。