„100 Jahre und kein bisschen glücklich“

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Financial Variables and the Simulated Out-of-Sample Forecastability of U.S. Output Growth Since 1985: An Encompassing Approach

We reconsider the out-of-sample forecasting ability of a large number of financial variables with respect to real output growth over the 1985:1–1999:4 period. We show that models including financial variables display almost no forecasting ability relative to an autoregressive benchmark model over this period according to a mean squared forecast error metric. However, tests based on forecast encompassing indicate that many financial variables do, in fact, contain information that is useful for forecasting real output growth over the 1985:1–1999:4 out-of-sample period. Our results suggest that the extant literature exaggerates the demise of the forecasting power of financial variables with respect to real activity since the mid-1980s.     

A review and discussion of prospective statistical surveillance in public health

Summary. A review of methods suggested in the literature for sequential detection of changes in public health surveillance data is presented. Many researchers have noted the need for prospective methods. In recent years there has been an increased interest in both the statistical and the epidemiological literature concerning this type of problem. However, most of the vast literature in public health monitoring deals with retrospective methods, especially spatial methods. Evaluations with respect to the statistical properties of interest for prospective surveillance are rare. The special aspects of prospective statistical surveillance and different ways of evaluating such methods are described. Attention is given to methods that include only the time domain as well as methods for detection where observations have a spatial structure. In the case of surveillance of a change in a Poisson process the likelihood ratio method and the Shiryaev–Roberts method are derived.     

Problems with the measures of gastrointestinal and cardiovascular symptom frequency in The Standard Shiftwork Index

The measures of gastrointestinal and cardiovascular health in The Standard Shiftwork Index (SSI; Barton, Costa, Smith, Spelten, Totterdell, and Folkard, 1995) purport to measure the frequency of 19 related symptoms using a 4-point rating scale, with response categories expressed in terms of a relative frequency: 'almost never', 'quite seldom', 'quite often', and 'almost always'. The present pilot study examined the relationship between frequency ratings of 11 gastrointestinal and 8 cardiovascular symptoms made on the SSI 4-point scale, and ratings of the same symptoms made on an alternative 9-point rating scale, which had response categories that were expressed in terms of an absolute value of symptom frequency (e.g. 'once a week'). Results obtained from a sample of 56 non-shiftworkers showed that the correlations between the two response formats were not high for any of the 11 gastrointestinal or 8 cardiovascular symptoms. Three of the relationships were non-significant. In addition, substantial variability in the interpretation of the response categories was detected between symptom items pertaining to both the gastrointestinal and cardiovascular subscales. The implications of these findings are discussed in relation to the current system of scoring individual symptom items, and the current aims within shiftwork research.     

Employee strain and job satisfaction related to an implementation of quality in a public service organization: A longitudinal study

To date, few studies have focused on employee reactions to the quality-related aspects of the introduction of New Public Management (NPM). The aim of this study was to investigate the effects on employee strain and satisfaction of the implementation NPM in a public service organization. The study was designed as an empirical examination of the 'context-dependent approach' ( Edwards, Collinson, & Rees, 1998 ). This approach suggests that effects of an organizational change depend on the context of the implementation, i.e. organizational aspects (implementation strategies), job content and job context dimensions. They employed a single-case longitudinal design. The case was a large municipal service unit responsible for the public housing system of a city in Austria. The sample consisted of 217 employees. Measurements were taken before the organizational change, and at two different times during the change process. While the implementation of NPM can be considered to have been an organizational success (increase in customer satisfaction), it was accompanied by increases in job strain, and, at the same time, mixed results in job satisfaction. Less qualified employees mainly responsible for the customer interface experienced the organizational change most negatively. Using structural equation modelling, the context-dependent approach was empirically confirmed. Job control, role clarity and information were found to be the most important job and organizational resources.     

Shades of gray: effect of external work arrangements on firm performance under operational and strategic contingencies

This study builds on recent research on the external workforce by examining the effects of (1) temporary work (2) independent contracting, and (3) consulting on firm performance, considering the client firms’ tasks, the qualification requirements for carrying out these tasks, and its strategic context. The findings are based on a survey of 261 firms in the German manufacturing industry. At the operational level, the results indicate that the difficulty of the tasks to be performed by external workers influences their performance. Whilst temporary work and consulting are better suited for simple tasks with low qualification requirements, independent contracting increases firm performance when appointing individuals to perform complex tasks. At the strategic level we research effects by two strategic orientations; one generally increasing the internal innovation performance (innovation orientation), the other generally increasing the performance of external relationships (alliance orientation). The innovation orientation here reduces the negative effect of temporary work, whereas a high alliance orientation precipitates a positive effect of consulting on firm performance. This paper demonstrates that clients’ task requirements and their alignment towards innovation and alliances have a significant influence on the benefits to the firm conveyed by highly qualified externals.     

Evaluation frequency and evaluator’s experience: the case of venture capital investment firms and monitoring intensity in stage financing

In this paper we analyze the relation between an investor’s experience and the intensity of monitoring activities. Specifically, we consider venture capitalist firms and their choices of time intervals between financing rounds. We hypothesize that more industry investment experience leads to longer time intervals between financing rounds and hence, lower monitoring intensity. Using a unique data set of venture capital firms from Germany during the period from 1995 to 2005 we find evidence for our hypothesis that in a given time frame more experienced investors evaluate and monitor their investments less often than less experienced investors. In addition, VC investors pool their experience and share the risk involved in investing by forming syndicates which reduces the incentives to monitor subsequently. On the basis of our results we argue that the optimal frequency of performance evaluations should take into account the experience of the evaluator.