Nonparametric Regression as an Example of Model Choice

Nonparametric regression can be considered as a problem of model choice. In this article, we present the results of a simulation study in which several nonparametric regression techniques including wavelets and kernel methods are compared with respect to their behavior on different test beds. We also include the taut-string method whose aim is not to minimize the distance of an estimator to some “true” generating function f but to provide a simple adequate approximation to the data. Test beds are situations where a “true” generating f exists and in this situation it is possible to compare the estimates of f with f itself. The measures of performance we use are the L²- and the L^∞-norms and the ability to identify peaks.     

The significance of place in middle childhood: qualitative research from Wales

The paper presents some key findings of qualitative research with older primary school children in Wales on their attachments to places and cultures. There is discussion of children's perspectives on the global, national and local arenas. We argue both that there are continuities with adult perspectives and that the children's views on place and identity need to be understood in the context of the social location of middle childhood. The study shows children making relatively little use of culturally-filled categories of local, national and global place-identifications. The differences they articulate are largely framed in terms of divisions between groups of people rather than in the characteristics of place, and generally related back to the self.     

Personalized Neural Networks Underlie Individual Differences in Ethnic Identity Exploration and Resolution

This study examined how ethnic identity relates to large-scale brain networks implicated in social interactions, social cognition, self-definition, and cognitive control. Group Iterative Multiple Model Estimation (GIMME) was used to create sparse, person-specific networks among the default mode and frontoparietal resting-state networks in a diverse sample of 104 youths aged 17–21. Links between neural density (i.e., number of connections within and between these networks) and ethnic identity exploration and resolution were evaluated in the full sample. Ethnic identity resolution was positively related to frontoparietal network density, suggesting that having clarity about one’s ethnic group membership is associated with brain network organization reflecting cognitive control. These findings help fill a critical knowledge gap about the neural underpinnings of ethnic identity.     

Toward a dimensional model of risk and protective factors influencing children's early cognitive,social, and emotional development during the COVID-19 pandemic

Variation in infants’ home environment is implicated in their cognitive and psycho-social development. The pandemic has intensified variations in home environments through exacerbating socioeconomic inequalities, and increasing psychological stressors for some families. This study investigates the effects of parental (predominantly maternal) mental health, enriching activities and screen use on 280 24- to 52-month-olds’ executive functions, internalising and externalising problems, and pro-social behaviour; with socioeconomic status and social support as contextual factors. Our results indicate that aspects of the home environment are differentially associated with children’s cognitive and psycho-social development. Parents who experienced sustained mental distress during the pandemic tended to report higher child externalising and internalising problems, and executive function difficulties at follow-up. Children who spent more time engaged in enriching activities with their parents showed stronger executive functions and social competence six months later. Screen use levels during the first year of the pandemic were not associated with outcomes. To mitigate the risk of persistent negative effects for this ‘pandemic generation’ of infants, our study highlights the importance of supporting parents’ mental health. As our results demonstrate the impact of social support on mental health, investing in support services and interventions promoting building support networks are likely to be beneficial.     

TALKING ABOUT PROBABILITIES: A LOGICAL PROBLEM FOR OR/MS

The correct interpretation of a natural language statement is determined as much by convention and shared meanings as by logical content. Therefore, when the word “probability” is used in the statement of a decision problem, the intended interpretation is not always clear. If such a statement also contains explicit probability formulae, confusion and even paradox may result. In this article, a problem involving cascaded inference is interpreted in four ways, three of which are regarded by the authors as legitimate or reasonable. The problem was originally suggested by Einhorn [3] and further discussed by Libby [10]. It is suggested here that a formal, mathematicist interpretation of the word “probability” might lead to inappropriate analyses of some decisions.     

Determining the minimum duration of treatment in tuberculosis: An order restricted non-inferiority trial design

Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the biggest killers among infectious diseases worldwide. Together with the identification of drugs that can provide benefits to patients, the challenge in TB is also the optimisation of the duration of these treatments. While conventional duration of treatment in TB is 6 months, there is evidence that shorter durations might be as effective but could be associated with fewer side effects and may be associated with better adherence. Based on a recent proposal of an adaptive order-restricted superiority design that employs the ordering assumptions within various duration of the same drug, we propose a non-inferiority (typically used in TB trials) adaptive design that effectively uses the order assumption. Together with the general construction of the hypothesis testing and expression for type I and type II errors, we focus on how the novel design was proposed for a TB trial concept. We consider a number of practical aspects such as choice of the design parameters, randomisation ratios, and timings of the interim analyses, and how these were discussed with the clinical team.     

Moving from ‘what we know works’ to ‘what we do in practice’: An evidence overview of implementation and diffusion of innovation in transition to adulthood for care experienced young people

Global research has shown that most young people who are care experienced are not prepared to transition to independent living at 18 years of age and require support into early adulthood. We used rigorous systematic methods to identify English-based peer reviewed and grey literature describing innovations relevant to care experienced young people as they transition into adulthood, with a focus upon lessons for their implementation and diffusion. We synthesised the evidence narratively and organise data linked to seven key areas important to the transition to adulthood: (1) Health and well-being; (2) relationships; (3) education and training; (4) employment; (5) participation in society; (6) accommodation; (7) other. Twenty-five papers met our inclusion criteria. This review has found that, whilst there are a broad spectrum of innovations taking place within the social care environment for care experienced young people to support their transition into adulthood, there exists limited insight into how best to support implementation and diffusion of evidence-based innovation. We drew upon the ‘Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research’, developed in the setting of clinical service delivery, to highlight challenges in implementing and diffusing evidence-based innovation for care experienced young people transitioning into adulthood.     

Caring for Preschool Children in Urban Brazil

ABSTRACT: This paper examines modes of child care choice for young children in urban Brazil. Analysis of child care in developing countries is rare, in spite of its relevance to many policy issues. We model child care choice as a function of characteristics of the child and the mother, including the mother's predicted wage and probability of employment, the presence of other young children and potential caregivers. The results highlight the importance of the institutional structure of the labour market and the formal child care market and reveal policy-relevant information regarding the allocation of child care responsibility among household members.