Extension of the Application of Conway‐Maxwell‐Poisson Models: Analyzing Traffic Crash Data Exhibiting Underdispersion

The objective of this article is to evaluate the performance of the COM‐Poisson GLM for analyzing crash data exhibiting underdispersion (when conditional on the mean). The COM‐Poisson distribution, originally developed in 1962, has recently been reintroduced by statisticians for analyzing count data subjected to either over‐ or underdispersion. Over the last year, the COM‐Poisson GLM has been evaluated in the context of crash data analysis and it has been shown that the model performs as well as the Poisson‐gamma model for crash data exhibiting overdispersion. To accomplish the objective of this study, several COM‐Poisson models were estimated using crash data collected at 162 railway‐highway crossings in South Korea between 1998 and 2002. This data set has been shown to exhibit underdispersion when models linking crash data to various explanatory variables are estimated. The modeling results were compared to those produced from the Poisson and gamma probability models documented in a previous published study. The results of this research show that the COM‐Poisson GLM can handle crash data when the modeling output shows signs of underdispersion. Finally, they also show that the model proposed in this study provides better statistical performance than the gamma probability and the traditional Poisson models, at least for this data set.     

BSE Risk Assessment as a Basis for Updating French Screening Policy

The current French bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) surveillance system, based on rapid testing of all cattle over 24 months of age and on clinical diagnosis, detects all clinical cases and some preclinical cases of BSE. Several indicators point to a marked shrinkage of the French BSE epidemic in recent years, owing to risk reduction measures. Meat and bone meal, the only known vector of the BSE agent, was banned in feed for all farmed species in November 2000. Thus the surveillance system may be relaxed. The objective of this risk assessment study was to provide information for decisionmakers on the minimum age at which healthy and high-risk cattle now need to be screened with rapid tests. For this purpose, we used the back-calculation method to project the course of the BSE epidemic. We examined the predicted patterns of the number and age distribution of cases of BSE that would be detected by the different existing surveillance streams. Various theoretical sensitivities of rapid tests were explored. Assuming that feed-borne sources of infection no longer exist, and that BSE does not occur spontaneously, our models suggest that it would have been possible to raise the minimum age for rapid tests to 66 months in early 2006, whereas theoretical reasoning, based on the assumption that the total meat and bone meal ban was effective in November 2001, suggests that this age cutoff could only be raised to 48 months in early 2006. These results only apply to cattle born and bred in France. If the situation remains unchanged, the age cutoff could be raised incrementally each year.     

The Impact of Abuse History and Trauma Symptoms on Successful Completion of a Prostitution-exiting Program

This study examines the trauma symptoms and life experiences of 49 women in a residential prostitution-exiting program and identifies differences among women who complete 90 days of the program and women who drop out of the program prior to completing 90 days. The majority of the women reported childhood abuse, adult abusive relationships, and victimization. Women who completed 90 days of treatment were found to be older than the non-completers. Non-completers were more likely to report clinically significant trauma symptoms including dissociation, poor coping behaviors, sex-related issues, and dysfunctional sexual behavior than completers. These findings suggest the importance of incorporating trauma-focused intervention early in the services provided in the exiting programs as well as the need to address the traumatic symptoms related to childhood and adult trauma histories. Findings also indicate the importance of clinically addressing trauma-related sexual issues, concerns, and behavior.     

Child custody issues and co‐occurrence of intimate partner violence and child maltreatment: controversies and points of agreement amongst practitioners

The situation of families undergoing separation in a context of co‐occurrence of intimate partner violence (IPV) and child maltreatment raises certain issues related to child custody. The results presented in this paper were collected and analysed within the framework of a qualitative study aiming to identify the principal points of agreement and the main controversies amongst practitioners in several different types of organizations. Focus groups were held with a total of 43 practitioners from six different settings concerned with child custody in cases of co‐occurrence of IPV and child maltreatment. Although they agreed on the importance of ensuring the safety of victims of violence, their views diverged on three points: (1) the importance of preserving the father–child relationship; (2) collaboration between voluntary organizations and semi‐voluntary or legal agencies; and (3) consideration of cultural differences.     

How can we Define the Concept of Long Memory? An Econometric Survey

In this paper we discuss different aspects of long memory behavior and applicable parametric models. We discuss the confusion that can arise when the empirical autocorrelation function decreases in a hyperbolic way.     

Constructing Scale/Contesting Scale: Women's Movement and Rescaling Politics in Quebec

Scalar shifts in public capacities and responsibilities arean important element of the way states have been restructuringin North America and in Europe. Women’s movements respondto these changes in various ways, including the rescaling ofcollective action. This article focuses on the rising importanceof the (subprovincial) region in Québec women’smovement politics to understand how new scales of action areconstituted or granted a renewed importance by women’smovements. Drawing on theoretical contributions from the humangeography literature on scale, state rescaling, and scalar politics,I show how the region has been materially and discursively constructedby Québec women’s movement actors as a legitimateand relevant scale for feminist politics. This has involvedan intricate and dynamic relationship with two different stateprojects of downward rescaling. Although it provided some realopportunities, it has also created difficulties and dilemmasfor women’s movement actors, who have also contested theprimacy of the region in Québec government’s newscalar arrangements.