Long range planning for public libraries—A Delphi study

Library managers in the local authority sector are increasingly needing to forecast future developments in order to have any chance of obtaining a realistic share of available resources. The Public Libraries Research Group, which was founded in 1971, produced a statement on public library aims and objectives and as a follow up to this carried out a Delphi exercise in 1973/74 to try and establish what technological, environmental, socio-economic and political pressures would effect developments in this field in the next 30 years. This was the first exercise of its type to be carried out in the United Kingdom and the full results have been published recently by the Public Libraries Research Group as a report. This paper describes how the project was evolved and carried out.     

Rebuilding Native American communities

The Wellbriety Movement in Native American communities draws on the wisdom and participation of traditional elders. Beginning with a basic community teaching called the Four Laws of Change and the Healing Forest Model, the Wellbriety Movement blends Medicine Wheel knowledge with the 12 Steps of Alcoholics Anonymous to provide culture-specific addiction recovery help for Native Americans. The four Journeys of the Sacred Hoop brought the Wellbriety Movement to Native and non-Native people alike from 1999 to 2003.     

The influence of exurban landscapes and local site characteristics on riparian vegetation

The southern Appalachian Mountains have experienced large population growth and a change in land use in the past 30 years. The majority of development has been low density, suburban land, known as exurban development. The long-term effects of exurbanization on riparian vegetative communities in the southeastern Appalachian Mountains are not well known. We sought to determine if vegetative community composition and structure change as a function of watershed–level variables such as time since neighborhood development or percent impervious surface within the watershed. We also assessed local–scale measures of disturbance such as canopy cover and basal area. Over two years we sampled a total of 27 streams in exurban watersheds ranging in age from four to forty-four years, along with eight forested streams. Watershed–scale variables such as neighborhood age and impervious surface cover did not influence the aspects of riparian vegetation community we measured. Canopy cover, a measure of local habitat disturbance, offered better predictions of vegetation community metrics. Exurban neighborhoods and their landowners may have the potential to manage for riparian vegetation through the use of maintained stream buffer zones along the entire length of the stream.     

Juvenile Reoffending: a ten‐year retrospective cohort analysis

Criminologists and other developmental researchers have long acknowledged the importance of both continuity and change in antisocial and criminal behaviour over the life‐course. To the extent that young offenders having contact with the police will persist with offending into adulthood is an important social issue with significant implications for the ongoing development and implementation of early intervention and prevention programs. Using data from New South Wales, this paper tracks a cohort of 8,797 juvenile offenders over ten years and is among the first of its kind to use multivariate techniques to examine the long‐term outcomes of those who were cautioned, conferenced or convicted in that state. The study finds that just over half of all juvenile offenders were reconvicted in court of a further offence and that reconviction rates were higher for young males and Indigenous offenders than for females or non‐Indigneous offenders. In concluding, this paper draws attention to the need for improved assessment and early intervention efforts that more accurately target those young people most at risk of persisting with offending into adulthood.     

Voices of girls with disabilities in rural Iran

This paper investigates the interaction of gender, disability and education in rural Iran, which is a relatively unexplored field of research. The responses of 10 female students with disabilities from Isfahan indicated that the obstacles they faced included marginalization, difficulties in getting from home to school, difficulties within the school building itself, and discrimination by teachers, classmates and school authorities. The data collected for the study contain a wide range of conservative gendered discourses, and show how traditional gender beliefs interact with disability to aggravate the problems faced in education by young women with disabilities. It is hoped that the findings will raise awareness among policy-makers of the many formidable obstacles that make it difficult for young women with disabilities to achieve their full potential in education.     

Civil Society in an Age of Environmental Accountability: How Local Environmental Nongovernmental Organizations Reduce U.S. Power Plants’ Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Institutional scholars have argued that in the absence of legislation on the issue of climate change, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) can help reduce the amount of anthropogenic greenhouse gases being emitted to the environment by disseminating environmental norms. Consistent with this reasoning, they have shown that from the middle of the last century up through the mid‐1990s, nations with more memberships in NGOs have tended to have lower carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in the aggregate. Doubts remain, however, about whether NGOs have reduced emissions in the time since and at the level of individual power plants where the lion's share of carbon pollution is emitted. Using plant‐specific information on CO₂ emissions recently collected by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) under its Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program, we investigate the effects of local environmental NGOs (ENGOs) on plants’ environmental performance. Consistent with our expectations, we find that local ENGOs not only directly reduce plants’ emissions but indirectly do so by enhancing the effectiveness of subnational climate policies that encourage energy efficiency. We discuss the implications of our findings for research on the decoupling of normative systems, social movements, environmental sociology, and the EPA's proposed Clean Power Plan.     

Challenging the inevitability of rural decline: Advancing the policy of place in northern British Columbia

In current policy discourse, rural decline is often described as an inevitable process associated with such broader structural trends as globalization and urbanization. The purpose of this paper is to challenge the supposed inevitability of rural decline in northern British Columbia (BC), Canada. We argue that rural decline in northern BC has been facilitated through an intentional policy program that views hinterland areas as a ‘resource bank’ from which to fund provincial infrastructure and services, without adequate attention to rural reinvestment. We highlight the potential discrepancies of this approach through a comparative study of two development eras in the province. In the first era, we examine the policies and development approach adopted by the W.A.C. Bennett provincial government, which governed from 1952 to 1972. We argue that the Bennett regime confronted the complexity of the post-war era with a comprehensive vision and coordinated policy program for ‘province building’ through intensive investments in industrial expansion and community infrastructure throughout the BC hinterland. By comparison, the post-1980s era in BC has witnessed a continuation of the resource bank approach, minus a concomitant commitment to hinterland investment. Reversing the inevitability of rural decline requires a renovation of the investment orientation witnessed during the Bennett era through an appreciation of the role of place in economic development. Our recommendations for renewed rural development in northern BC are drawn from a synthesis of the Bennett lessons with those emerging within place-based development literature.     

Money demand stability: A case study of Nigeria

Monetary policy in Nigeria aims is to achieve price and monetary stability. During the 1980s and 1990s, monetary targeting was the dominant monetary policy framework in Nigeria. However, in 2006 the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) adopted the new monetary policy framework through which short-term interest rates are adjusted to achieve stability in the value of the domestic currency. This paper has presented an empirical investigation into the demand for Nigerian real narrow money (M1) over the period 1960–2008 in an attempt to identify whether the CBN were right to adopt the new monetary policy framework. In doing so, we estimate alternative (canonical and extended) specifications of M1 demand using structural change methods. Our results suggest that the canonical specification is well-determined. Although the money demand relationship went through a regime shift in 1986, it is largely stable. These findings favour the use of supply of money as an instrument of monetary policy, thus lending limited support for the new monetary policy framework.     

Bootstrapping a time series model: some empirical results

The bootstrap is a methodology for estimating standard errors. The idea is to use a Monte Carlo simulation experiment based on a nonparametric estimate of the error distribution. The main objective of this article is to demonstrate the use of the bootstrap to attach standard errors to coefficient estimates in a second-order autoregressive model fitted by least squares and maximum likelihood estimation. Additionally, a comparison of the bootstrap and the conventional methodology is made. As it turns out, the conventional asymptotic formulae (both the least squares and maximum likelihood estimates) for estimating standard errors appear to overestimate the true standard errors. But there are two problems:i. The first two observations y₁ and y₂ have been fixed, and ii. The residuals have not been inflated. After these two factors are considered in the trial and bootstrap experiment, both the conventional maximum likelihood and bootstrap estimates of the standard errors appear to be performing quite well.     

An Experiment to Modify Self-Concept and School Performance

Abstract

The joint or combined effects of age level, sex differences, and social factors in fear of crime are systematically investigated using elaboration analysis with 1976 NORC data. Findings reveal that while the elderly are somewhat more likely to report fear of crime when compared with young and middle-aged groups, many more women express apprehension than men at each age level. Fear of being victimized is especially prevalent among those segments of the population that are the most isolated and vulnerable, notably elderly and middle-aged black women, unmarried older women living alone, elderly women in poor health, and women of all ages who had been burglarized.