Public and private employment over the business cycle: A ratchet theory of government growth

Previous researchers have attempted to explain the growth in the size of government over time. Some have observed a “ratchet” effect and have attributed these observed jumps in the relative size of government to ideological shifts in response to severe crises. We explain these observed ratchets as the consequence of asymmetries in the response of government employment to the business cycle. A public-choice oriented model of the employment response to the cycle is developed and applied to state and local government employment data. The data confirm the presence of ratchet effects that correspond to the business cycle. Moreover, virtually all of the growth in the ratio of state and local government employment to private employment has occurred during recessions. The authors greatly appreciate the extensive comments of Randall 0. Holcombe and the late Richard McHugh on an earlier draft of this paper. Don Bellantés work on this paper was aided by a grant from the John M. Olin Institute for Employment Practice and Policy.     

Personalization of Mail Surveys for General Public and Populations with a Group Identity: Results from Nine Studies*

Abstract The effect of personalization on mail survey response rates was examined in nine studies that included 17 comparisons under several research conditions. A study of this variable across multiple experiments in five agricultural experiment stations was undertaken because of conflicting results from previous research and from concern that the effectiveness of personalization might have decreased over time. Results show that, while response to general public surveys appeared to increase modestly across all treatment groups, there was no positive effect for populations in which a group identity (e.g., Dear Oregon Gardner or Dear ATV Owner) is employed to address respondents in cover letters. Personalization appears to remain useful for improving response in surveys of the general public.     

The Identification of Behaviour Disorder within the Community

In the absence of a clinical definition of Behaviour Disorder, those termed ‘Behaviourally Disordered’ are often considered unsuitable for psychiatric servicing and many end up inappropriately contained by the correctional system. The working definitions of 213 South Australian health and welfare professionals from six client areas (child/adolescent, psychiatric, intellectually disabled, brain-damaged, correctional and general) were surveyed. Respondents generally saw Behaviour Disorder as a recognisable disorder, involving both aggressive, disruptive behaviour and deficits in social adaptation. Perceptions of its presentation varied across client groups and across professional roles. The results highlighted a need for specialised community servicing for this group.     

Implications of the 65-mph speed limit for traffic safety.

This study evaluates the impact of the 65-mph speed limit on traffic safety. Using data for the years 1981 to 1995 for all 50 states, a pooled time series analysis is conducted. Separate models are estimated for state fatality rates on four categories of roads: rural interstate highways, rural noninterstate roads, all roads except for rural interstate highways, and all roads. It is reported that the 65-mph speed limit increased fatality rates on rural interstate highways but was correlated with a reduction in state fatality rates on the three other categories of roads.     

Family Change and Economic Well-being in Canada: The Case of Recent Immigrant Families with Children

This paper examines the relationship between family change and economic well‐being among recent immigrant families with children to Canada during the 1977 to 1997 period. Whereas the average income to needs ratio of all Canadian families with children is up modestly over this period, this study documents a substantial decline in the average level of economic well‐being of recent immigrants. In this context, this study draws attention to the relevance of not only structural explanations that emphasize the role of labour markets and/or government policy in shaping the economic conditions of immigrants, but also the potential impact of shifts in the living arrangements and family structure of immigrants. More specifically, an increased incidence of lone parenthood has had a net negative impact on the economic well‐being of immigrants, albeit not to the same extent as among non‐immigrants in Canada. Yet, other changes have had a slight positive impact, including an ongoing decline in the average number of children per family, an upward shift in the age distribution of parents, and a slight increase in the tendency of immigrants to co‐reside with family members beyond the immediate nuclear family.     

PUBLIC WEALTH,PUBLIC HEALTH,AND PRIVATE STEALTH: EXAMINING THE BLACK MARKET IN CIGARETTES IN AUSTRALIA

Taxes on tobacco provide a significant income for the Australian government — $5.1 billion in 2001. At the same time, health officials are making strenuous efforts to reduce smoking, particularly among teenagers. Some economists suggest that raising taxes on tobacco will produce more revenue while at the same time lowering smoking rates, particularly among youths who have less discretionary spending power than adults. But a by‐product of excise tax in Australia has been the emerging market in “chop‐chop,” tobacco diverted from legal channels by growers who receive considerably higher prices for a part of their yield than they can obtain from legal manufacturers. The article details this situation and suggests that only bold solutions may be able to reduce tensions in tax policies, smoking rates and the “chop‐chop” black market.     

Factors that influence reading and comprehension of branching instructions in self–administered questionnaires

Summary: In this paper we examine the tendency for branching instructions to be ignored, misread, or otherwise not appropriately followed so that item nonresponse occurs for follow–up questions. The potential influence on branching errors of seven features of question complexity are examined, including high number of question words, high number of answer categories, last categories branch, all categories branch, write–in responses, location at the bottom of a page, and high distance between the answer box and branching instruction. A logistic regression analysis revealed that question complexity had a tendency to increase certain errors, but not others.* A more detailed version of this paper with additional analysis and discussion is available at http://www.sesrc.wsu.edu/dillman/. The opinions expressed here are those of the authors, not necessarily of the institutions where they presently work or the U.S. Census Bureau, which provided financial support for the collection of these data. We would like to thank Aref Dajani and Yves Thibaudeau for their advice on the analysis used in this paper.