Minimax weights for generalised M‐estimation in biased regression models

The authors consider the construction of weights for Generalised M‐estimation. Such weights, when combined with appropriate score functions, afford protection from biases arising through incorrectly specified response functions, as well as from natural variation. The authors obtain minimax fixed weights of the Mallows type under the assumption that the density of the independent variables is correctly specified, and they obtain adaptive weights when this assumption is relaxed. A simulation study indicates that one can expect appreciable gains in precision when the latter weights are used and the various sources of model uncertainty are present.     

Professionals’ decision‐making in cases of physical punishment reported to child welfare authorities: does family poverty matter?

The influence of family poverty on professionals’ decision‐making in cases of physical punishment reported to child welfare agencies was examined. The sample was drawn from the Canadian Incidence Study of Reported Child Abuse and Neglect. The influence of five indicators of poverty on six investigation outcomes was assessed. In addition, a Poverty Index was constructed from these five variables to assess whether the family's overall poverty status influenced investigation outcomes. The outcome variables examined were case substantiation, provision of ongoing child welfare services, referrals to child and family support programmes, out‐of‐home placement, applications to child welfare court and police involvement. Together, the poverty indicators did not account for more than 6% of the explained variation in any of the outcome variables, nor did the magnitude of the Poverty Index affect the likelihood of any of the investigation outcomes. These findings suggest that family poverty does not influence professionals’ decision‐making in cases of physical punishment reported to child welfare agencies in Canada. The findings have implications for the ongoing development of policy aimed at reducing parental use of physical punishment.     

International Migration and Gender in Latin America: A Comparative Analysis

We review census data to assess the standing of five Latin American nations on a gender continuum ranging from patriarchal to matrifocal. We show that Mexico and Costa Rica lie close to one another with a highly patriarchal system of gender relations whereas Nicaragua and the Dominican Republic are similar in having a matrifocal system. Puerto Rico occupies a middle position, blending characteristics of both systems. These differences yield different patterns of female relative to male migration. Female householders in the two patriarchal settings displayed low rates of out-migration compared with males, whereas in the two matrifocal countries the ratio of female to male migration was much higher, in some case exceeding their male counterparts. Multivariate analyses showed that in patriarchal societies, a formal or informal union with a male dramatically lowers the odds of female out-migration, whereas in matrifocal societies marriage and cohabitation have no real effect. The most important determinants of female migration from patriarchal settings are the migrant status of the husband or partner, having relatives in the United States, and the possession of legal documents. In matrifocal settings, however, female migration is less related to the possession of documents, partner's migrant status, or having relatives in the United States and more strongly related to the woman's own migratory experience. Whereas the process of cumulative causation appears to be driven largely by men in patriarchal societies, it is women who dominate the process in matrifocal settings.     

People and Pixels 20 years later: the current data landscape and research trends blending population and environmental data

Population and Environment - In 1998, the National Research Council published People and Pixels: Linking Remote Sensing and Social Science. The volume focused on emerging research linking changes...     

Children and the reform of the welfare system: An introduction

Between March 1994 and July 2001, welfare rolls fell an amazing 59 percent from their historic high of 5.1 million families. How much of this decline was the result of welfare reform and how much was the result of other factors, such as the strong economy? What were the effects of the decline on low-income families? About a quarter billion dollars is being spent on studies and surveys designed to answer these and other questions. Unfortunately, we are unlikely to get more than a modest amount of the information sought.     

Is all well in the neighborhood? Conflict on neighborhood boards in Milwaukee

Neighborhood organizations have become more important players in urban areas in recent years due to a renewed interest in social capital and an emphasis on the continuing development of community. With this elevated status comes more responsibility for the delivery of services to citizens and scrutiny by these very citizens, the press, and government officials. Much of what we know about neighborhood organizations comes from our observations of board deliberations. Through these deliberations board members make decisions that affect neighborhood constituents. In this study we examine the context in which neighborhood boards in the city of Milwaukee, Wisconsin, make decisions. Using theory borrowed from the literature on local government boards, we develop a series of testable hypotheses relating to the level of conflict on these boards. Our findings indicate that conflict is relatively low across boards in Milwaukee; however, the number of board member and certain behavioral variables explain a significant amount of the variance in the level of conflict.     

Are Life Insurance Holdings Related to Financial Vulnerabilities?

Using the 1995 Survey of Consumer Finances and an elaborate life-cycle model, we quantify the potential financial impact of each individual's death on his or her survivors and measure the degree to which life insurance moderates these consequences. Life insurance is essentially uncorrelated with financial vulnerability at every stage of the life cycle. As a result, the impact of insurance among at-risk households is modest, and substantial uninsured vulnerabilities are widespread, particularly among younger couples. We also identify a systematic gender bias: For any given level of financial vulnerability, couples provide significantly more protection for wives than for husbands. (JEL D10 , G22 )     

Robust sequential designs for nonlinear regression

The authors introduce the formal notion of an approximately specified nonlinear regression model and investigate sequential design methodologies when the fitted model is possibly of an incorrect parametric form. They present small‐sample simulation studies which indicate that their new designs can be very successful, relative to some common competitors, in reducing mean squared error due to model misspecifi‐cation and to heteroscedastic variation. Their simulations also suggest that standard normal‐theory inference procedures remain approximately valid under the sequential sampling schemes. The methods are illustrated both by simulation and in an example using data from an experiment described in the chemical engineering literature.