Assessing research impact potential: using the transdisciplinary Outcome Spaces Framework with New Zealand’s National Science Challenges

ABSTRACT

Calls for science to have impact as well as excellence have been loud and clear from research funders, policymakers and research institutions for some time. Transdisciplinary research (TDR) is expected to deliver impact by connecting scientists with stakeholders and end users to co-produce knowledge to respond to complex issues. While New Zealand’s science system is geared to deliver excellence, its capability to also deliver impact beyond academic institutions is less clear. This paper has two interconnected aims. Firstly, it presents findings from testing innovations to the TDR Outcome Spaces Framework (OSF+) with four National Science Challenges (NSCs). We conclude that OSF+ is a useful tool for planning for multiple outcomes and assessing the potential for impact. Secondly, it presents findings of how using OSF+ to assess research impact potential revealed a range of implicit theories of change (i.e. catalyst, deficit, engagement and collaboration) across the NSCs. The findings raise important questions about the prospects for New Zealand’s science system to deliver the envisaged and needed levels of research impact when current institutional settings, expectations, recognition systems, career paths and measures of success are not yet able to adequately accommodate TDR to deliver the research impact.     

Panel data and models of change: A comparison of first difference and conventional two-wave models

The method of first differences as an approach to modeling change is described and it is compared to more conventional two-wave panel models. Substantial advantages are found to the first-difference approach, especially if there are unmeasured, unchanging predictor variables in the model. It is also argued that there are substantial problems in the interpretation of results from the conventional two-wave models. Some of the analytic results are illustrated with a number of applications to the area of stressful life events.     

The Impact of Parental Death on Child Well-being: Evidence From the Indian Ocean Tsunami

Identifying the impact of parental death on the well-being of children is complicated because parental death is likely to be correlated with other, unobserved factors that affect child well-being. Population-representative longitudinal data collected in Aceh, Indonesia, before and after the December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami are used to identify the impact of parental deaths on the well-being of children aged 9–17 at the time of the tsunami. Exploiting the unanticipated nature of parental death resulting from the tsunami in combination with measuring well-being of the same children before and after the tsunami, models that include child fixed effects are estimated to isolate the causal effect of parental death. Comparisons are drawn between children who lost one or both parents and children whose parents survived. Shorter-term impacts on school attendance and time allocation one year after the tsunami are examined, as well as longer-term impacts on education trajectories and marriage. Shorter- and longer-term impacts are not the same. Five years after the tsunami, there are substantial deleterious impacts of the tsunami on older boys and girls, whereas the effects on younger children are more muted.     

Divergence in Age Patterns of Mortality Change Drives International Divergence in Lifespan Inequality

In the past six decades, lifespan inequality has varied greatly within and among countries even while life expectancy has continued to increase. How and why does mortality change generate this diversity? We derive a precise link between changes in age-specific mortality and lifespan inequality, measured as the variance of age at death. Key to this relationship is a young–old threshold age, below and above which mortality decline respectively decreases and increases lifespan inequality. First, we show for Sweden that shifts in the threshold’s location have modified the correlation between changes in life expectancy and lifespan inequality over the last two centuries. Second, we analyze the post–World War II (WWII) trajectories of lifespan inequality in a set of developed countries—Japan, Canada, and the United States—where thresholds centered on retirement age. Our method reveals how divergence in the age pattern of mortality change drives international divergence in lifespan inequality. Most strikingly, early in the 1980s, mortality increases in young U.S. males led to a continuation of high lifespan inequality in the United States; in Canada, however, the decline of inequality continued. In general, our wider international comparisons show that mortality change varied most at young working ages after WWII, particularly for males. We conclude that if mortality continues to stagnate at young ages yet declines steadily at old ages, increases in lifespan inequality will become a common feature of future demographic change.     

Simulation of extremes of diffusions

The authors consider the problem of simulating the times of events such as extremes and barrier crossings in diffusion processes. They develop a rejection sampler based on Shepp [Shepp, Journal of Applied Probability 1979; 16:423–427] for simulating an extreme of a Brownian motion and use it in a general recursive scheme for more complex simulations, including simultaneous simulation of the minimum and maximum and application to more general diffusions. They price exotic options that are difficult to price analytically: a knock‐out barrier option with a modified payoff function, a lookback option that includes discounting at the risk‐free interest rate, and a chooser option where the choice is made at the time of a barrier crossing. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 38: 738–755; 2010 © 2010 Statistical Society of Canada     

BUCKLEY'S SCHEME OF SCHEMES AS A FOUNDATION FOR TEACHING FAMILY SYSTEMS THEORY

In recent training literature, a consistent recommendation emerges concerning the need for an emphasis on the development of a strong system theory base upon which future practitioners and researchers can build. This paper advocates the use of Buckley's hierarchical scheme as a teaching tool to provide an understandable, yet broadly applicable, theory base for graduate students in an introductory family therapy course. A method of teaching Buckley's scheme is outlined that not only incorporates the recommendations of the literature, but also provides an umbrella model of systems for future application and theory building.     

World Energy Production,Population Growth,and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge

The Olduvai theory is defined by the ratio of world energy production and population. It states that the life expectancy of Industrial Civilization is less than or equal to 100 years: 1930–2030. After more than a century of strong growth—energy production per capita peaked in 1979. The Olduvai theory explains the 1979 peak and the subsequent decline. Moreover, it says that energy production per capita will fall to its 1930 value by 2030, thus giving Industrial Civilization a lifetime of less than or equal to 100 years. This analysis predicts that the collapse will be strongly correlated with an epidemic of permanent blackouts of high-voltage electric power networks—worldwide.     

Above and Below the Water: Social/Ecological Transformation in Northwest Newfoundland

Marine fisheries and fishing societies develop around the resources provided by a particular ecosystem. As they exploit these resources, fisheries transform the ecosystem, which pushes fishery and society to adapt in turn. This process is illustrated by fisheries, ecological and social data tracking dramatic changes on Newfoundland's Northern Peninsula and its adjacent marine ecosystem, the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence. There a longstanding fishery for cod and other groundfish collapsed in the 1990s, and was replaced by fisheries targeting invertebrates. The new invertebrate fisheries have different socioeconomic characteristics than the former groundfish fisheries. The shift in target species reflects deep ecological changes that were underway at least a decade before official recognition of the crisis. Our analysis of biological data reveals that the main ecological changes occurred during the glory years of the 1980s, when Newfoundland's domestic fisheries were at their peak. Overfishing and interactions with adverse climatic conditions drove the changes. As the ecosystem transformed, human population declined due to outmigration, and social indicators show signs of distress. Accounts by outport residents paint a generational picture of social change.