What are the economic consequences of divorce?

Our analysis suggests that Weitzman's finding concerning the precipitous decline in the economic status of women following divorce is likely to be incorrect. Her findings not only imply improbably large changes in income but are also inconsistent with the information she reports on changes in income and in income per capita. Corrected estimates suggest a decline in economic status of about one-third, rather than the widely cited 73 percent figure. It remains the case that the economic status of men and women diverge substantially in the years after divorce. That difference, however, is not nearly as dramatic as suggested by Weitzman's findings.     

Some models of response uncertainty for panel analysis

Data of L. M. Wiggins from three-wave panels, each with a single dichotomous response, illustrate the use of models with response probabilities that vary over occasions or over individuals, or neither, or both, with a “no interaction” combination of the two being specified for the last case, which can also be derived from the Rasch measurement model. Models more complicated than these, allowing for changes in individual parameters (interaction of occasions and persons) or serial dependence of responses are considered when the Rasch-type model does not adequately describe the data.     

Simultaneous estimation of the hardy-weinberg proportions

We consider the problem of simultaneously estimating k + 1 related proportions, with a special emphasis on the estimation of Hardy-Weinberg (HW) proportions. We prove that the uniformly minimum-variance unbiased estimator (UMVUE) of two proportions which are individually admissible under squared-error loss are inadmissible in estimating the proportions jointly. Furthermore, rules that dominate the UMVUE are given. A Bayesian analysis is then presented to provide insight into this inadmissibility issue: The UMVUE is undesirable because the two estimators are Bayes rules corresponding to different priors. It is also shown that there does not exist a prior which yields the maximum-likelihood estimators simultaneously. When the risks of several estimators for the HW proportions are compared, it is seen that some Bayesian estimates yield significantly smaller risks over a large portion of the parameter space for small samples. However, the differences in risks become less significant as the sample size gets larger.     

THE TIME LINE AND THE “WHY NOW?” QUESTION: A TECHNIQUE AND RATIONALE FOR THERAPY,TRAINING, ORGANIZATION CONSULTATIONS AND RESEARCH

A method is presented for quickly and graphically clarfying the relationships between life cyle evnts and the onset of probles Its basic from involves laterally organizing events in terms of the points in time at which they ocurred. A structural version-expressed in two formate-elucidates the interaction between nodal events and changes in family/organization structure. The device can both tease out hypotheses and identify directoins for treatment. It addreses the “Why now?” question for therapists and trainees and can provide a normalizing, edifying, and encouraging experience for families. It is also adaptable for research and for use in organizational development and consultation with agencies and businesses.     

Development of Risk-Based Ranking Measures of Effectiveness for the United States Coast Guard's Vessel Inspection Program

This paper describes the results of an analysis of the effectiveness of the U.S. Coast Guard's efforts to promote the safety of life and property at sea through its program to inspect large, ocean-going vessels. The effectiveness of specific U.S. Coast Guard vessel inspection activities was evaluated using risk-based metrics that linked categories of root causes of accidents to the particular inspection activities designed to reduce the risk of each root cause category. The results demonstrate a risk-based ranking of USCG inspection activities. These metrics, describes as measures of effectiveness (MOEs), yield insights regarding the most beneficial areas in which to concentrate inspection resources. Insights regarding quality of vessel casualty investigation data and database design as related to risk-based importance analysis are also discussed. The MOEs constructed in this study are specific to the USCG's Marine Inspection and Boarding Program, but the methodology of the study is based on sound theoretical principles that are probably applicable to a range of maritime safety activities. Hence the methodology applies equally to other important governmental regulatory programs and can be similarly used to measure their effectiveness and as an aid to decision-making.     

Remarriage patterns among recent widows and widowers

Remarriage is one of the most important determinants of physical and economic well-being among the widowed. The goal of this study is to estimate how hazard rates for remarriage vary among widows and widowers on the basis of both observable and unobservable characteristics. The remarriage estimates rely on nationally representative samples of widows and widowers from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. Continuous-time hazard rate regressions indicate strong age and duration dependence effects for middle-aged widows and widowers and for older widowers. Among middle-aged widows, blacks and those with dependent children in the home have lower rates of remarriage. For middle-aged widowers, living in urbanized areas limits the prospects of remarriage. For older widowers, education and, to some extent, economic status appear to have positive effects on the remarriage rates. Overall, age and time since widowhood have the strongest and most consistent effects on remarriage rates for different widowed groups.     

A new look at child abuse tragedies

Thirty-five child abuse inquiry reports, published in Britain between 1973 and 1989, were reviewed and the cases reanalysed using a systemic framework. Problematic interactions were identified within the families, among members of the professional networks and between the families and professionals. These relational aspects of each case interacted and progressively skewed the course of events. The findings have important implications for the practice of child protection, including the assessment of risk and decisions by statutory professionals to employ controlling interventions such as Emergency Protection Orders.