Optimization of Cascade‐Resilient Electrical Infrastructures and its Validation by Power Flow Modeling

Large‐scale outages on real‐world critical infrastructures, although infrequent, are increasingly disastrous to our society. In this article, we are primarily concerned with power transmission networks and we consider the problem of allocation of generation to distributors by rewiring links under the objectives of maximizing network resilience to cascading failure and minimizing investment costs. The combinatorial multiobjective optimization is carried out by a nondominated sorting binary differential evolution (NSBDE) algorithm. For each generators–distributors connection pattern considered in the NSBDE search, a computationally cheap, topological model of failure cascading in a complex network (named the Motter‐Lai [ML] model) is used to simulate and quantify network resilience to cascading failures initiated by targeted attacks. The results on the 400 kV French power transmission network case study show that the proposed method allows us to identify optimal patterns of generators–distributors connection that improve cascading resilience at an acceptable cost. To verify the realistic character of the results obtained by the NSBDE with the embedded ML topological model, a more realistic but also more computationally expensive model of cascading failures is adopted, based on optimal power flow (namely, the ORNL‐Pserc‐Alaska) model). The consistent results between the two models provide impetus for the use of topological, complex network theory models for analysis and optimization of large infrastructures against cascading failure with the advantages of simplicity, scalability, and low computational cost.     

Central bank credibility and monetary policy in Indonesia

This paper examines the role of central bank credibility in achieving an inflation target and proposes monetary policy rules for Indonesia. Towards that end, we construct and estimate a forward-looking small scale macroeconomic model (SSMM) of the Indonesian economy by adapting the theoretical underpinnings of the well-known Batini–Haldane model, along with the Taylor policy rule. Our results indicate that it is crucial for the Indonesian central bank to bolster its credibility in order to achieve a lower inflation rate. The inflation–output volatility trade-off frontier we derived from the SSMM shows that a monetary policy rule that targets both inflation and output gaps will result in less macroeconomic volatility. We also found that the inclusion of the exchange rate into the rule as an additional feedback variable warrants consideration in the future course of monetary policy management.     

A Small-Sample Estimator for the Sample-Selection Model

A semiparametric estimator for evaluating the parameters of data generated under a sample selection process is developed. This estimator is based on the generalized maximum entropy estimator and performs well for small and ill-posed samples. Theoretical and sampling comparisons with parametric and semiparametric estimators are given. This method and standard ones are applied to three small-sample empirical applications of the wage-participation model for female teenage heads of households, immigrants, and Native Americans.     

Media Exposure to Terrorism and Perception of Immigrants as a Threat: The Role of Emotional Intelligence and Psychophysiological Self-Regulation

To better understand how media exposure to terrorism-related images can lead to perceiving immigrants as more threatening, in the present study we manipulated participants’ exposure to media coverage of terrorist attacks and investigated how this may influence people's perception of Arab immigrants. Considering the important role of regulatory abilities when facing stressful events like terrorist attacks, we measured individual differences in both trait emotional intelligence and resting heart rate variability (HRV). Results showed that participants perceived Arab immigrants as more threatening in the media exposure condition than in the control condition. Importantly, there were moderating effects of both trait emotional intelligence and HRV. People with lower trait emotional intelligence or lower HRV at rest felt more threatened in the media exposure condition compared to the control condition, whereas this effect was not observed among participants with higher trait emotional intelligence or higher resting HRV. The present study highlights some of the complexities related to how media exposure to terrorism-related images influences people's reactions to, and evaluations of, an outgroup that is related to the perpetrators of the attacks.     

A characterization of the dilation order and its applications

LetX andY be two random variables with finite expectationsE X andE Y, respectively. ThenX is said to be smaller thanY in the dilation order ifE[ϕ(X-E X)]≤E[ϕ(Y-E Y)] for any convex functionϕ for which the expectations exist. In this paper we obtain a new characterization of the dilation order. This characterization enables us to give new interpretations to the dilation order, and using them we identify conditions which imply the dilation order. A sample of applications of the new characterization is given. Partially supported by MURST 40% Program on Non-Linear Systems and Applications. Partially supported by “Gruppo Nazionale per l'Analisi Funzionale e sue Applicazioni”—CNR.     

The Structure of the Chinese Banking System and Credit Access Problems for SMEs

This paper examines the structure and the main characteristics of the Chinese banking industry. In particular, the paper analyses the problematic aspects of credit relations of small and medium enterprises (SMEs). The SMEs are facing several problems in accessing the bank loans market, dominated by the political and contractual weight of state-owned enterprises. However, some recent reforms have improved the situation, a fundamental condition for additional positive results. Nevertheless, further and more pervasive modernization efforts are needed to consolidate these results and to develop the relationships between banks and SMEs.

Estimating the grid of time-points for the piecewise exponential model

One of the greatest challenges related to the use of piecewise exponential models (PEMs) is to find an adequate grid of time-points needed in its construction. In general, the number of intervals in such a grid and the position of their endpoints are ad-hoc choices. We extend previous works by introducing a full Bayesian approach for the piecewise exponential model in which the grid of time-points (and, consequently, the endpoints and the number of intervals) is random. We estimate the failure rates using the proposed procedure and compare the results with the non-parametric piecewise exponential estimates. Estimates for the survival function using the most probable partition are compared with the Kaplan-Meier estimators (KMEs). A sensitivity analysis for the proposed model is provided considering different prior specifications for the failure rates and for the grid. We also evaluate the effect of different percentage of censoring observations in the estimates. An application to a real data set is also provided. We notice that the posteriors are strongly influenced by prior specifications, mainly for the failure rates parameters. Thus, the priors must be fairly built, say, really disclosing the expert prior opinion.     

Head Canting in Paintings: An Historical Study

Head canting, a lateral shift of the head toward the shoulder axis, was examined in 1498 figures in the complete works of 11 painters from the XIV to the XX century: Martini, van Eyck Hubert and Jan, Holbein, Carracci, Velazquez, Rembrandt, Degas, Cèzanne, Klimt, and Modigliani. All figures (up to 9 in any one painting) that were not in complete profile and that were not depicted bowing or shifting their bodies were selected for analysis. Our analysis found a higher frequency (49%) of head canting in paintings than previously reported in naturalistic settings. Head canting was significantly higher in female figures than male figures. If a figure's head was facing laterally, head canting was more likely to be to the contralateral side. Head canting was lower in older figures than in children, youths, and adults. The highest level of head canting was seen in religious and mythological figures. Head canting was lower in figures of artists and professionals and virtually absent in depictions of nobles. Figures in pose were depicted with less head canting than those in natural settings. Head canting was lower in figures gazing toward the observer. Single-figure portraits head canted less than subjects in multiple-figure paintings. Author analysis revealed that head canting was pronounced in painters of religious subjects and in modern painters, whereas its degree was reduced in official portrait painters. These results are discussed in terms of dominance theory.