A study of Bayesian local robustness with applications in actuarial statistics

Local or infinitesimal Bayesian robustness is a powerful tool to study the sensitivity of posterior magnitudes, which cannot be expressed in a simple manner. For these expressions, the global Bayesian robustness methodology does not seem adequate since the practitioner cannot avoid using inappropriate classes of prior distributions in order to make the model mathematically tractable. This situation occurs, for example, when we compute some types of premiums in actuarial statistics in order to fix the premium to be charged to an insurance policy. In this paper, analytical and simple expressions that allow us to study the sensitivity of premiums, which are usually used in automobile insurance are provided by using the local Bayesian robustness methodology. Some examples are examined by using real automobile claim insurance data.     

Influence of urban landscape structure on bird fauna: a case study across seasons in the city of Valencia (Spain)

Studies on bird fauna of urban environments have had a long history, but the potential of studies mapping the distribution of birds in cities probably has not fully developed. The bird fauna of the municipality of Valencia (Spain) was studied to determine the influence of urbanization on bird species richness and abundance. Birds were censused during winter and the breeding season of years 1997–1998 in 197 squares measuring 49 ha each from a rural and an urbanized area. Across seasons the number of species decreased around 40% in the city compared with the rural landscape surrounding it. Such pattern could be attributed to the low number of farmland species capable to use the habitats inside the city, and the limited ability of urban parks in attracting woodland species. In the urban landscape, the influence of the dimensions and spatial arrangement of habitat patches was outweighed by the amount of each habitat per square. Bird richness and the abundance of most species were negatively related with the amount of built-up habitat per square and positively with the amount of urban parks, and of habitat diversity. Conversely, bird fauna was largely independent of mean park size per square especially during winter, indicating that at the landscape scale even small patches of habitat could play an ecological role. Conservation of urban bird diversity could benefit of two complementary strategies: (i) the protection of the surrounding rural landscape from urban development; (ii) habitat enhancement within the city. Particularly, a proper design and habitat management of urban parks could improve their suitability for urban bird fauna.     

A Corporate Culture Pattern to Manage Business Ethics

Within the general frame of proposals for an adequate management of business ethics, this paper is based on the vision of corporate culture as a pattern to achieve such purpose. If we consider ethics as a specific value of corporate culture, we may resort to the mechanism of cultural change and implementation in order to manage ethics. Despite the difficulties it entails in terms of time and money investment, this procedure is one of the safest ways to reach ethical values which are known, shared and then practiced by all the members of a corporation, whatever the category. From this central standpoint, and basing ourselves on our own proposal for the management of culture, we shall describe which specific steps must be taken in order to achieve a set of ethical values which are both realistic and furthermore shared by all collaborators of an organization. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Paving the road to hell: why change programs ultimately fail

A successful change program must have clearly delineated and honestly defined goals. Change requires conviction, money, and effort and the willingness to invest all three. Change programs fail when any of these requirements are lacking. Many health care executives have the conviction, but are unwilling to spend the money or expend the effort. Some lack conviction, despite having money; the effort is merely spinning wheels with no forward motion. Often all three are lacking, despite an outward appearance to the contrary--the result of management delusions. Employees are quick to see through misleading and insincere schemes. It is much easier to foster trust from the outset than to rebuild it after it has been violated.     

A comparative analysis of public sector restructuring in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, and the Caribbean

We examine public sector restructuring in North America and selected Commonwealth Caribbean nations. Although all the countries studied experienced significant restruc-turing in response to public debt pressures, there were major differences across coun-tries in the magnitude, pace, form, and the manner in which restructuring decisions were made. These differences reflect the state of economic development and institu-tional characteristics, e.g., the role of the state and the industrial relations system. In developing countries, international lending institutions played a major role in trans-forming the role of the state. In developed countries, the inherent stability of the eco-nomic systems and institutional pressures led to a gradualist approach to restructuring.     

Statistical Inference Based on Pooled Data: A Moment-Based Estimating Equation Approach

We consider statistical inference on parameters of a distribution when only pooled data are observed. A moment-based estimating equation approach is proposed to deal with situations where likelihood functions based on pooled data are difficult to work with. We outline the method to obtain estimates and test statistics of the parameters of interest in the general setting. We demonstrate the approach on the family of distributions generated by the Box-Cox transformation model, and, in the process, construct tests for goodness of fit based on the pooled data.     

DISTRIBUTIONAL INCENTIVES IN AN EQUILIBRIUM MODEL OF DOMESTIC SOVEREIGN DEFAULT

Europe's debt crisis resembles historical episodes of outright default on domestic public debt about which little research exists. This paper proposes a theory of domestic sovereign default based on distributional incentives affecting the welfare of risk‐averse debt and nondebtholders. A utilitarian government cannot sustain debt if default is costless. If default is costly, debt with default risk is sustainable, and debt falls as the concentration of debt ownership rises. A government favoring bond holders can also sustain debt, with debt rising as ownership becomes more concentrated. These results are robust to adding foreign investors, redistributive taxes, or a second asset.     

Collective Emotions in Conflict Situations: Societal Implications

It is well established today that emotions are an important part of most societal dynamics. The current article focuses on the role of different collective emotional elements in creating, preserving, and resolving conflicts. The main premise is that collective emotions play a pivotal role in shaping individual and societal responses to conflicting events and in contributing to the evolvement of a social context that maintains the emotional climate and collective emotional orientation that have developed. The first part of the article provides a conceptual framework to discuss the relations between conflict, context, and collective emotions. The second part uses the conceptual framework to discuss the societal implications of the articles presented in this issue. Taken together, the parts create a platform for future research on the role of collective emotions in conflict resolution and the construction of cultures of peace.     

La psicología de la paz en los Estados Unidos

Resumen

Dentro del estudio de los procesos sociocognitivos implicados en la conducta de salud, el objetivo de este estudio es obtener la percepción de rol de las personas implicadas en la relación del profesional de la salud con el paciente. Así como su asociación con el cumplimiento terapéutico del paciente. Cien pacientes de hipertensión arterial esencial y cien profesionales de la salud (médicos y de enfermería) respondieron a los cuestionarios especialmente elaborados para este trabajo.

El cumplimiento terapéutico lo valoramos mediante una medida combinada de autoinforme y consecución de los objetivos terapéuticos. Los resultados mostraron que el rol del paciente podría evaluarse por los profesionales sanitarios en función de tres dimensiones fundamentales (obediencia/resistencia hacia la asistencia sanitaria; confianza/desconfianza hacia los profesionales sanitarios y cumplimiento/incumplimiento hacia los tratamientos terapéuticos). El rol de médico percibido por los pacientes se definió de forma más amplia y exigente que el rol de la enfermera. Y por último, observamos diferencias entre los pacientes cumplidores y los incumplidores respecto a algunas características atribuidas al rol del médico.