Expressing Economic Risk—Review and Presentation of a Unifying Approach

Risk related to economic values is treated by many disciplines, including safety and production engineering, business, and project management. Within each of these and across these disciplines different nomenclature and principles are adopted for describing and communicating risk. The situation is rather confusing. In this article, we review various approaches and concepts that are used to express risk. We present and discuss a unifying approach for dealing with economic risk, with uncertainty being the key risk concept. The approach represents a rethinking on how to implement the Bayesian paradigm in practice to support decision making.     

On parallelizable Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms with waste-recycling

Parallelizable Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) generates multiple proposals and parallelizes the evaluations of the likelihood function on different cores at each MCMC iteration. Inspired by Calderhead (Proc Natl Acad Sci 111(49):17408–17413, 2014), we introduce a general ‘waste-recycling’ framework for parallelizable MCMC, under which we show that using weighted samples from waste-recycling is preferable to resampling in terms of both statistical and computational efficiencies. We also provide a simple-to-use criteria, the generalized effective sample size, for evaluating efficiencies of parallelizable MCMC algorithms, which applies to both the waste-recycling and the vanilla versions. A moment estimator of the generalized effective sample size is provided and shown to be reasonably accurate by simulations.     

What works for whom? An analysis of active labour market programmes in Norway

This article examines whether some active labour market programmes (ALMP) targeted at social assistance recipients are more effective for some groups than for others in increasing self-sufficiency , i.e. gross earnings . The study focuses on the interaction between two types of programmes – employment programmes and training programmes – and the social charac-teristics of the participants. The data are derived from the pool of the entire population of social assistance recipients registered in Norway in 1995. The study adopts a quasi-experimental design. To handle selection bias, a matching procedure based on a propensity score approach is applied. Training programmes yield positive outcomes overall and for subgroups, whereas employment programmes produce no significant effects overall. However, for employment programmes there is an interaction effect between the likelihood of participation and outcome: beneficiaries with social characteristics (e.g. age, education, work experience) that are associated with a medium chance of participating experience a positive and significant increase in earnings. For those with lower and higher chances, the effect is negative. This points to the importance of conducting stratified analyses in effect evaluations. Thus, the results are also likely to be more relevant to policy makers.     

Parental Child‐Rearing Conflicts Through Adolescence: Trajectories and Associations With Child Characteristics and Externalizing Patterns

Research on longitudinal interparental conflict patterns and offspring development is scarce. The population‐based TOPP study (N = 459) was used to investigate (1) child‐rearing conflict trajectories through four time points during childhood and adolescence (ages 8–16), and (2) associations between conflict trajectories and child characteristics (i.e., birth order, gender, externalizing patterns from early childhood). Latent profile analysis identified six distinct trajectories. Conflict levels decreased for most respondents over the adolescent offspring period, but offspring's birth order and externalizing problems were related to less typical trajectories and higher levels of conflict. Onset of externalizing problems was of additional importance for the course of parental child‐rearing conflicts. The results highlight the perception of the whole family as an interwoven system.     

Estimating international poverty lines from comparable national thresholds

The World Bank’s international poverty line (IPL) of $1.90/day at 2011 PPPs is based on a collection of national poverty lines provided in Ravallion et al. (World Bank Econ. Rev. 23(2), 163–184, 2009), originally used to set the IPL of $1.25/day at 2005 PPPs. This paper proposes an approach for estimating a more recent, complete and comparable collection of national poverty thresholds from reported national poverty rates, and then presents a set of IPLs based on this new database of national poverty lines. In contrast to the lines used to estimate the $1.90 IPL, this approach produces national poverty lines that are (1) consistent with national poverty rates, (2) expressed in common units, and (3) provide greater support to the estimated IPL. These national poverty lines are used to estimate an extreme IPL, and three higher IPLs that are more relevant to higher-income countries. We provide evidence of the robustness and relevance of the $1.90 IPL as a measure of extreme poverty for low-income countries.     

Income effects of divorce in families with dependent children

The Norwegian post-divorce transfer scheme for families with children guarantees minimum maintenance payments from the non-custodial to the custodial parent. We studied the economic effects of divorce in such families. When the mother has custody, she falls behind before maintenance payments. After adding these, the outcomes at the median are very similar for both parents, contrasting studies from other countries, but the risk of a drop in equivalized income is large.     

Intergenerational earnings mobility and divorce

This paper examines the potential effect of marital disruption on intergenerational earnings mobility. We observe the earnings of children born in 1960 and 1970 along with their biological fathers and mothers. The earnings mobility between sons and daughters relative to the earnings of their mothers and fathers is estimated. Our results suggest that divorce is associated with increased mobility, except between mothers’ and daughters’ earnings. Transition matrices reveal that the direction of the mobility is negative; children of divorced parents tend to move downward in the earnings distribution compared to children from intact families. Finally, we utilize information on the earnings mobility of siblings in dissolved families who grew up when the family was intact. The difference between pre- and post-divorce siblings is in turn compared with sibling differences in intact families.     

Low income and ‘poverty lines’ in Norway: a comparison of three concepts

Borgeraas E, Dahl E. Low income and ‘poverty lines’ in Norway: a comparison of three concepts
Int J Soc Welfare 2010: 19: 73–83 © 2008 The Author(s), Journal compilation © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the International Journal of Social Welfare. In this article we address the question of how well three concepts of ‘poverty’ correspond with each other. We have compared three different measures of ‘poverty’ in Norway: income poverty and two measures of a minimum budget standard, one scientifically and one politically defined. The three measures rest on different underlying concepts, serve different purposes and yield significantly different poverty lines. If followed by the municipal social services, the governmental norms for social benefits will, paradoxically, leave the beneficiaries in income poverty as defined by that same government. The most generous poverty line of all three measures is provided by the minimum budget standard developed by the National Institute for Consumer Research in Norway, which rests on the assumption that a household's income has to give a sustainable financial situation in the longer run. Neither of the two other poverty measures have this property. All numbers pertain to the year 2005. Some political and practical implications of the findings are discussed.