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In this paper, we introduce logistic models to analyse fertility curves. The models are formulated as linear models of the log odds of fertility and are defined in terms of parameters that are interpreted as measures of level, location and shape of the fertility schedule. This parameterization is useful for the evaluation, and interpretation of fertility trends and projections of future period fertility. For a series of years, the proposed models admit a state-space formulation that allows a coherent joint estimation of parameters and forecasting. The main features of the models compared with other alternatives are the functional simplicity, the flexibility, and the interpretability of the parameters. These and other features are analysed in this paper using examples and theoretical results. Data from different countries are analysed, and to validate the logistic approach, we compare the goodness of fit of the new model against well-known alternatives; the analysis gives superior results in most developed countries. 相似文献
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Cities as environments 总被引:4,自引:3,他引:1
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In recent years, the “obesity epidemic” has emerged as a putative public health crisis. This article examines the interconnected role of medical science and news reporting in shaping the way obesity is framed as a social problem. Drawing on a sample of scientific publications on weight and health, and press releases and news reporting on these publications, we compare and contrast social problem frames in medical science and news reporting. We find substantial overlap in science and news reporting, but the news media do dramatize more than the studies on which they are reporting and are more likely than the original science to highlight individual blame for weight. This is partly due to the news media’s tendency to report more heavily on the most alarmist and individual‐blaming scientific studies. We find some evidence that press releases also shape which articles receive media coverage and how they are framed. 相似文献
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David L. Blustein Alexandra C. Kenna Nadia Gill Julia E. DeVoy 《The Career development quarterly》2008,56(4):294-308
The authors present the psychology‐of‐working perspective (D. L. Blustein, 2006; N. Peterson & R. C. González, 2005; M. S. Richardson, 1993) as an alternative to traditional career development theories, which have primarily explored the lives of those with choice and volition in their working lives. The major historical and conceptual features of the psychology of working are reviewed, with a focus on how this framework provides a more inclusive and, ideally, more just vision for the career counseling field. Implications for career counseling and a case presentation are provided to examine how this new perspective can inform counseling practice. A brief overview of public policy implications concludes the article. 相似文献