建筑抗震质量的设计与管理

地震灾害给人类社会生活带来重大影响。加强建筑工程质量管理,防止地震灾害,成为备受社会关注的热点问题。要从提高全民质量意识入手,建立健全有效的质量监督机制、提高建筑设计质量,加强施工质量控制．为人民安居乐业创造良好的环境。     

中国当前农业发展的十大困局及其突破路径

改革开放30年以来,我国农业和农村经济取得了显著的发展绩效,但在工业化、信息化、城市化、市场化和国际化同时推进的背景下,当前农业发展正处在新的历史起点,面临着新的发展目标,并在生产要素、市场结构、制度安排等层面表现出十大困局.这些因局是产业缺陷、资源约束、市场缺位和政策失衡等因素交织作用的结果,而农业走出困局在发展战略、经济结构和经济实力等层面已具有坚实基础.未来回应农业发展困局必须凸现农民持续增收这个核心,通过土地产权制度、土地管理制度、农村金融制度、城乡户籍制度、生产组织方式、农业保护制度、社会保障制度的完善来形成农业发展的长效机制.     

Automating and evaluating reversible jump MCMC proposal distributions

The reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler (Green in Biometrika 82:711–732, 1995) has become an invaluable device for Bayesian practitioners. However, the primary difficulty with the sampler lies with the efficient construction of transitions between competing models of possibly differing dimensionality and interpretation. We propose the use of a marginal density estimator to construct between-model proposal distributions. This provides both a step towards black-box simulation for reversible jump samplers, and a tool to examine the utility of common between-model mapping strategies. We compare the performance of our approach to well established alternatives in both time series and mixture model examples.     

美国"冷战"政策与日苏领土问题的形成

战后日苏领土问题的形成,与美国"冷战"政策有密切关系。美国因"冷战"政策而转变对《雅尔塔协定》的态度,使苏联获得有关领土的法律依据缺少说服力,同时也给日本收回领土提供了口实;美国主导的《旧金山对日媾和条约》要求日本放弃有关领土,但又不规定其最终归属对象;美国对日苏两国恢复邦交正常化谈判的干涉,表面上支持日本方面主张,实质上阻止日本方面妥协而使领土问题成为遗留问题。美国国际"冷战"政策是造成战后日苏及日俄领土问题形成最重要的外来因素。     

旅游中的民族文化整合与传承——以阳朔“印象·刘三姐”为例

文章考察了旅游中的民族文化整合与传承问题,结合具体个案民族文化主题项目"印象·刘三姐"对旅游环境导向中的民族文化和符号进行了以文化整合过程和结构的解析,以其中的民族文化元素山歌的原生、再生、衍生方式加以阐述了传承问题.     

《宋元学案》的层次结构与学案设置——兼论全祖望与黄宗羲思想史观之异同

现行百卷本《宋元学案》的层次结构与学案设置,由其实质意义上的完成者全祖望所决定.经过全祖望的修补,在层次性质上,《宋元学案》由比较纯粹的宋元哲学史演变为宋元儒学思想史与文献资料汇编.在结构内容上,《宋元学案》的史学(史传)与学术谱系(家谱)色彩非常浓厚.在学案设置上,全祖望修定与次定的学案反映了全祖望与黄宗羲思想史观的共识,补定的学案反映了两人思想史观侧重点的分歧,补本的学案体现了全祖望对黄宗羲道学思想史体系的突破.全祖望设置学案的标准与黄宗羲在“黄氏原本”中注重思想流派与地域学术的立场相比有继承也有突破,在考虑学术脉络、地位及宗旨等纯学术因素的同时,也注重人品道德与政治事功等方面的因素.这体现了作为哲学史家的黄宗羲与作为史学家的全祖望在思想史观上的差异.     

On analysis of binary response data in longitudinal factorial studies

Binary data are commonly used as responses to assess the effects of independent variables in longitudinal factorial studies. Such effects can be assessed in terms of the rate difference (RD), the odds ratio (OR), or the rate ratio (RR). Traditionally, the logistic regression seems always a recommended method with statistical comparisons made in terms of the OR. Statistical inference in terms of the RD and RR can then be derived using the delta method. However, this approach is hard to realize when repeated measures occur. To obtain statistical inference in longitudinal factorial studies, the current article shows that the mixed-effects model for repeated measures, the logistic regression for repeated measures, the log-transformed regression for repeated measures, and the rank-based methods are all valid methods that lead to inference in terms of the RD, OR, and RR, respectively. Asymptotic linear relationships between the estimators of the regression coefficients of these models are derived when the weight (working covariance) matrix is an identity matrix. Conditions for the Wald-type tests to be asymptotically equivalent in these models are provided and powers were compared using simulation studies. A phase III clinical trial is used to illustrate the investigated methods with corresponding SAS® code supplied.     

人口转型与中国农业可持续增长

禀赋性资源的约束性,已成为农业可持续增长的瓶颈.农业人口生产由数量偏好向质量偏好转变带来的技术进步型农业的增长方式,有效地保证了农业的可持续增长.而农业可持续增长是一种不依赖传统生产要素增加,却是以农业技术进步为源泉的农业生产总量的增长.本文通过对人口转型影响要素和技术进步中介效应的计量分析,验证了人口转型通过对农业技术进步的影响进而促进农业可持续增长的途径,也即验证了人口转型、技术进步与农业可持续增长三者间的关系.优化教育资源合力打造适宜农民培养体系实现农业人口转型,有效保证农业科技的进步和推广应用,是保障农业可持续增长的有效措施.     

明代应天巡抚驻地考

应天巡抚署治事处所先在南京会同馆,自成化十八年(1482)起才建有独立衙署,直到万历二年(1574)一直在南京。同年,为居中调度,及时处理海警和江警紧要事务,驻地移往适中之地应天府句容县。万历三十一年(1603),因苏州发生生员和市民之变,兼因苏州日益重要的经济和交通地位,应天巡抚又由句容迁驻苏州,此后直到明末,一直驻扎苏州。