The net asset value and stock prices of European real estate companies

The frequently large divergences between share price and net asset value (NAV) of listed real estate companies have been a key topic in real estate research for many years. However, previous research has mainly focused on the U.S. market, concentrating on companies’ performance ratios related to information from balance sheet statements and/or income statements as well as information from the stock market, and its results are not satisfying. This study, on the other hand, focuses on the European real estate market and presents a semi-rational model for explaining NAV spreads, taking into account performance ratios and market sentiment simultaneously. It appears that market sentiment in particular substantially improves the model, which explains more than 76% of the NAV spread. Thus, the developed model constitutes a significant improvement over previous studies on the explanation of NAV spreads.     

Households’ preferences for attributes of Conditional Cash Transfer programmes: A choice experiment in Ghana

Conditional cash transfer (CCT) is increasingly being integrated into poverty reduction strategies in developing countries. However, debate remains over key elements of CCT programme design. Using a discrete choice model, this article examines Ghanaian households’ preferences regarding key CCT programme design elements including conditionality, targeting, and payment method. The results revealed a preference for CCT designs that target beneficiaries with limited or no productive capacity and CCT designs that are conditional on beneficiaries either investing in children's human capital or performing communal service, relative to unconditional programmes. Also, direct bank deposit was revealed as the preferred payment mode relative to receipt of cash payments or use of mobile money systems.     

Neighborhood Effects in Temporal Perspective

Theory suggests that neighborhood effects depend not only on where individuals live today, but also on where they lived in the past. Previous research, however, usually measured neighborhood context only once and did not account for length of residence, thereby understating the detrimental effects of long-term neighborhood disadvantage. This study investigates the effects of duration of exposure to disadvantaged neighborhoods on high school graduation. It follows 4,154 children in the PSID, measuring neighborhood context once per year from age 1 to 17. The analysis overcomes the problem of dynamic neighborhood selection by adapting novel methods of causal inference for time-varying treatments. In contrast to previous analyses, these methods do not "control away" the effect of neighborhood context operating indirectly through time-varying characteristics of the family, and thus they capture the full impact of a lifetime of neighborhood disadvantage. We find that sustained exposure to disadvantaged neighborhoods has a severe impact on high school graduation that is considerably larger than effects reported in prior research. Growing up in the most (compared to the least) disadvantaged quintile of neighborhoods is estimated to reduce the probability of graduation from 96% to 76% for black children, and from 95% to 87% for nonblack children.     

Managing Electricity Peak Loads in Make‐To‐Stock Manufacturing Lines

In this article, we study the control of stochastic make‐to‐stock manufacturing lines in the presence of electricity costs. Electricity costs are difficult to manage because unit costs increase with the total load, that is, the amount of electricity needed by the manufacturing line at a certain point in time. We demonstrate that standard methods for controlling manufacturing lines cannot be used and that standard analytic results for stochastic manufacturing lines do not hold in the presence of electricity costs. We develop a control policy that balances electricity costs with inventory holding and backorder costs. We derive closed‐form expressions and analytic properties of the expected total cost for manufacturing lines with two workstations and demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of the policy for manufacturing lines with more than two workstations. The results indicate that avoiding electricity peak loads requires additional investment in manufacturing capacity and higher inventory and backorder costs. Our approach also applies to companies which aim at reducing their carbon emissions in addition to their operating costs.     

The Biodemography of Fertility: A Review and Future Research Frontiers

The social sciences have been reticent to integrate a biodemographic approach to the study of fertility choice and behaviour, resulting in theories and findings that are largely socially-deterministic. The aim of this paper is to first reflect on reasons for this lack of integration, provide a review of previous examinations, take stock of what we have learned until now and propose future research frontiers. We review the early foundations of proximate determinants followed by behavioural genetic (family and twin) studies that isolated the extent of genetic influence on fertility traits. We then discuss research that considers gene and environment interaction and the importance of cohort and country-specific estimates, followed by multivariate models that explore motivational precursors to fertility and education. The next section on molecular genetics reviews fertility-related candidate gene studies and their shortcomings and on-going work on genome wide association studies. Work in evolutionary anthropology and biology is then briefly examined, focusing on evidence for natural selection. Biological and genetic factors are relevant in explaining and predicting fertility traits, with socio-environmental factors and their interaction still key in understanding outcomes. Studying the interplay between genes and the environment, new data sources and integration of new methods will be central to understanding and predicting future fertility trends.     

A psychosocial study on crime and gender: Position,role and status of women in a sample of Spanish criminal organizations / Un estudio psicosocial sobre la delincuencia y género. Posición,rol y estatus de la mujer en una muestra española de organizaciones criminales

The purpose of this study was to determine the socio-demographic characteristics of a sample of females (N = 200) who have belonged to organized crime groups (N = 67) that have operated in Spain between 1999 and 2010, along with what their roles and status have been. The information has been mined from police records provided by the Central Operational Unit of the Guardia Civil. The results enable us to conclude that most of the females are adults, and that many of them have family or partner ties to the organizations. Furthermore, they are actively involved in these criminal groups, mainly performing jobs that do not require the use of violence, and they are especially needed for internal security. In terms of status, the majority seem to be at the lowest level of the organizational structure, although we have managed to identify some women who have played leadership roles in criminal organizations.     

A computational analysis of the tournament equilibrium set

A recurring theme in the mathematical social sciences is how to select the “most desirable” elements given a binary dominance relation on a set of alternatives. Schwartz’s tournament equilibrium set (TEQ) ranks among the most intriguing, but also among the most enigmatic, tournament solutions proposed so far. Due to its unwieldy recursive definition, little is known about TEQ. In particular, its monotonicity remains an open problem to date. Yet, if TEQ were to satisfy monotonicity, it would be a very attractive solution concept refining both the Banks set and Dutta’s minimal covering set. We show that the problem of deciding whether a given alternative is contained in TEQ is NP-hard, and thus does not admit a polynomial-time algorithm unless P equals NP. Furthermore, we propose a heuristic that significantly outperforms the naive algorithm for computing TEQ.     

Education and Roma Children in the Basque Region of Spain

The European Union and those countries that make up the region of South-eastern Europe are built on the pillars of a multicultural society, with different languages, cultures, religions and ethnic groups. This diversity gives rise to various kinds of conflicts. The way in which we resolve these will determine the kind of future we can create for next generations. In this paper, we look at the situation of Roma and Educational provisions for Roma in the Basque region of Spain. It is clear that improvements are being made, but that much work is still necessary. Too few Roma children succeed at the moment in the Spanish and Basque educational systems. We use the case study of one school, the La Esperanza School, to highlight opportunities and barriers to effectively addressing the issue of Roma education.