政府生产性基础设施投资对农业经济增长的影响——基于西安市的实证研究

根据西安市1988—2006年间的数据建立柯布一道格拉斯生产函数,在自回归分布滞后模型（ADL）下用最小二乘法（OLS）进行估计。实证分析结果显示：政府基础设施投资对西安市农业经济增长贡献显著,并且其作用远大于非基础设施投资的贡献,表明政府的生产性基础设施投资是西安市农业经济快速增长的关键因素。在此基础上,对西安市政府近期进行基础设施投资的重点方向提出了相关的政策建议。     

高增长维持与高波动风险并存——基于运行基础变化的未来宏观经济特征

目前,我国经济高增长所固有的一些优势在减弱,一些重要因素、条件和动力发生根本变化,未来维持高增长和平稳运行的难度愈来愈大,因此.高增长维持与高波动风险并存可能是我国经济未来一段时期的主要特征.我们必须深入分析和正确认识真实存在的条件、优势和真正存在的问题,以创新维持高增长的思路,提高观察、预警和抗风险能力,提高宏观调控和平抑经济波动的能力.     

论先秦儒家中庸之异

中庸作为先秦儒家的重要范畴,在"何为中"问题上,大儒们的回答有所不同。孔子将其视为哲学方法论意义上的"道",从全局和全面出发,主张"全为中";子思将中庸上升为宇宙的本体,并认为诚是上达该本体的唯一正确途径,从而提出"诚为中";孟子从性善论出发,必然推演为"仁义为中";荀子为恢复孔子的中庸之道,纠偏思孟的"德性为中",倡导"规范为中"。     

信息时代高校函授教育的改革思路

信息时代的到来,既为函授教育的发展带来了机遇,也提出了严峻的挑战。只有利用远程网络技术改造传统函授教育的教育模式、学习模式、管理模式,才能实现函授教育的可持续发展。为此,函授教育改革中需要解决端正培养目标、优化培养模式、构建高质量培养平台等几个问题。     

金融危机背景下大龄返乡农民工养老保障模式与政策支撑

金融危机对我国中小型企业产生了巨大影响,企业的经营困难造成了一大批失业返乡的农民工,而其中的大龄农民工面临着更为严峻的困境。如何解决他们养老保障问题成为当今社会关注的热点。对现实生活中大龄返乡农民工养老面临的四大困境分析表明,从国家养老保障政策的支持、社会养老关系网络的构建、充分发挥受保主体的自保能力三个层面来构建金融危机后大龄返乡农民工养老保障的模式．具有一定的现实意义和价值。     

一个多民族文学融合互动的范本——《述善集》文学文献价值考述

“Tangwu” is an alternative name for the descendants of the Xixia dynasty. In 1227 AD, a number of these Xixia descendants moved inland after the destruction of the Xixia Dynasty by the Mongolians. One group of them migrated to the area near Puyang, Henan Province. Tangwu Chongxi ( Yang Chongxi ) of the Yuan Dynasty compiled the Shu San Ji, which is divided into three volumes: Shansu, Yucai and Xingshi, and appended with the biography of Boyan Zongdao. It reflects the historical origins, social class, living conditions and the relations with the Han people of the descendants of the Dangxiangqiang minority af-ter they moved to Puyang. This book attracted a lot of attention in academic circles, and it was there-fore reorganized and published in 1985 after being treasured by the people for more than 600 years. It has high academic value for its comprehensive his-torical records. We can not only acquaint ourselves with the history of the make-up of the Chinese na-tion, but also research this diversity from multiple perspectives, such as history, nationality and folk-lore . That is why it has drawn so much attention a-mong academic researchers. The book contains po-ems, prose and biographies, which belong to dif-ferent celebrated scholars from different ethnic mi-norities, all of whom had relationships with Tang-wu Chongxi. It is also a typical model of Qiang-Han literature, which is very rare. This paper gives a preliminary exploration on the book, and shows a small part of its comprehensive value. Shu San Ji is not a merely personal collec-tion, but is also different from general literature collections. The compilation of the book took a long time. Shu San Ji Xuxie ( Continuation of Shu San Ji) , written by Zhang Yining, was finished in the 18 th year of the Zhizheng Period in the Yuan Dynasty (1358), which indicates that the Shu San Ji had already been finished by that time . Zeng wuwei chushi yangxiangxian xu ( Presented to Chu Shi Yang Xingxian·Preface ) , written by Wei Su and finished in the 24 th year of Zhizheng ( 1364 ) , suggests that the Shu San Ji had been compiled in-to a book by that time, and that it was compiled with the compositions of social celebrities of the time. However, the Shu San Ji, as it has been handed down to us today, includes the Song Yang-gong Xiangxian gui Tanyuan xu ( Preface of Send-ing Yanggong Xiangxian Back to Tanyuan) by Tao Kai, written in March in the 5 th year of Hongwu in the Ming Dynasty ( 1372 ) . It indicates that Yang Xiangxian kept on collecting articles even after the book was finished. The Xu yangshi yiji ( Preface of Yang’s Last Collection) by Wang Chongqing, writ-ten in the 6th year of Jiajing (1527), indicates that the Shu San Ji was still being written after Yang Chongxi’s death. At the end of the Shu San Ji , Boyang Zongdao zhuan ( Biography of Boyang Zongdao) and Weiti shi (Poems) were collected in the 16 th year of Zhengde in the Ming Dynasty (1529) and in the 16th year of Shunzhi in the Qing Dynasty (1629), respectively. It suggests that the
Shu San Ji had been supplemented and continually recompiled since Yang Chongxi firstly finished his book in 1358. After 271 years, in 1629, the Shu San Ji, as we read it today, was finally comple-ted. Through the basic components of the Shu San Ji,readers can understand that the Tangwu family was a harmonious, multi-ethnic family. A number of multi-ethnic writers spent long periods compos-ing works collected in the Shu San Ji and Tangwu Chongxi was also influenced by China’s diverse culture and traditional Confucian culture. The work is strongly connected with his study in Guozixue. In the late Yuan Dynasty, the restora-tion of the imperial examinations promoted Confucianism’s influence further. Pan Di, as Tang-wu Chongxi’s teacher in Guozixue, wrote most arti-cles in the Shu San Ji, which shows their close re-lationship and his influences on Tangwu Chongxi’s literature and Confucian studies. Tangwu Chongxi and others’ works reflected their sense of admira-tion for and deep feelings for their Dangxiang an-cestors, but more so helped to propagate the con-cepts of Confucian edification, diligence, thrifti-ness and benevolence, and some of them did so in a very polemic way. For example, Boyan Zongdao wrote the Jiefu xu ( preface of “Jiefu”) and Tang-wu Chongxi wrote the Jiefu houxu ( epilogue of“Jiefu”) , which reflect the social reality and ide-ology of all scholars with different ethnic back-grounds at that time. His work, “Tangwu gong-bei” fushi ( Poem inscribed on Tangwu Tablet ) , was written in a plain and authentic way and showed that he always remembered his origins and his ethnic desire to inherit the family’s heritage. Meanwhile , it was also mixed with the popular ide-as of upholding the honor of their ancestors from the central plains and Han areas, which shows the
editorial purpose of the Shu San Ji and also dem-onstrates the value of Chinese multi-ethnic litera-ture and cultural integration.     

美国老龄产业发展及对我国的启示

随着21世纪全球人口老龄化时代到来,老龄产业成为拉动国家经济增长的新引擎.美国早在20世纪40年代进入了老龄化社会,老龄产业发展相对较早,经历了从完全被忽略,到反复摸索,再到理性发展的过程,通过企业发现并不断满足老年消费者尚未满足的需求、科技创新、相关政府部门扶持、老龄科学研究服务于产业发展、美国退休人员协会助推等举措,老龄产业进入发展快车道.中国作为世界上老年人口最多的国家,须以美国经验为借鉴,从市场细分、产品和服务创新、老龄产业发展政策支持体系、产学研紧密结合、老龄产业协会中介作用等方面推动老龄产业发展.     

Confidence Corridors for Multivariate Generalized Quantile Regression

We focus on the construction of confidence corridors for multivariate nonparametric generalized quantile regression functions. This construction is based on asymptotic results for the maximal deviation between a suitable nonparametric estimator and the true function of interest, which follow after a series of approximation steps including a Bahadur representation, a new strong approximation theorem, and exponential tail inequalities for Gaussian random fields. As a byproduct we also obtain multivariate confidence corridors for the regression function in the classical mean regression. To deal with the problem of slowly decreasing error in coverage probability of the asymptotic confidence corridors, which results in meager coverage for small sample sizes, a simple bootstrap procedure is designed based on the leading term of the Bahadur representation. The finite-sample properties of both procedures are investigated by means of a simulation study and it is demonstrated that the bootstrap procedure considerably outperforms the asymptotic bands in terms of coverage accuracy. Finally, the bootstrap confidence corridors are used to study the efficacy of the National Supported Work Demonstration, which is a randomized employment enhancement program launched in the 1970s. This article has supplementary materials online.     

Pricing power options with a generalized jump diffusion

In this article, the valuation of power option is investigated when the dynamic of the stock price is governed by a generalized jump-diffusion Markov-modulated model. The systematic risk is characterized by the diffusion part, and the non systematic risk is characterized by the pure jump process. The jumps are described by a generalized renewal process with generalized jump amplitude. By introducing NASDAQ Index Model, their risk premium is identified respectively. A risk-neutral measure is identified by employing Esscher transform with two families of parameters, which represent the two parts risk premium. In this article, the non systematic risk premium is considered, based on which the price of power option is studied under the generalized jump-diffusion Markov-modulated model. In the case of a special renewal process with log double exponential jump amplitude, the accurate expressions for the Esscher parameters and the pricing formula are provided. By numerical simulation, the influence of the non systematic risk’s price and the index of the power options on the price of the option is depicted.     

基于Theil不等系数的C-IGOWLA算子的区间组合预测模型

传统的组合预测方法通常是针对非区间数据在最优准则下来建立最优预测模型的,但实际,中在不确定环境下样本数据和预测值序列均以区间数形式给出,因此有必要研究区间组合预测模型.文章引进连续区间诱导广义有序加权对数平均算子(C-IGOWLA)的概念,以Theil不等系数作为最优准则,提出了一种新的基于Theil不等系数的C-IGOWLA算子的区间组合预测模型,并结合实例验证了模型的有效性.