Planning models in the UK: A survey

This paper presents the results of a survey on the use of computer-based models in the broad areas of planning and strategy formulation in UK companies. This survey updates and complements other recent surveys, which exclusively considered the use of corporate models, and shows a continued increase in the numbers of these models in use. In particular, models in the following broad categories were examined: forecasting, marketing, personnel, production and models of ‘one-off’ situations, as well as corporate and financial models. For such models the paper includes details of: frequencies of occurrence and relationship to company size; professional roles of the model-builders and users respectively; frequencies of use. In these and more subjective ways, the survey attempts to assess the place and value of computers in planning.     

Book Review: Global Civil Society. Dimensions of the Nonprofit Sector,Lester M. Salamon,Helmut K. Anheier,Regina List,Stefan Toepler,S. Wojciech Sokolowski,and Associates,The Johns Hopkins Center for Civil Society Studies,Baltimore, 1999

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations -     

Systems thinking and business process redesign: An application to the beer game

Managers are regrettably ignorant of the fact that their business organisations are ‘designable’. But recently, concepts such as business re-engineering and systems thinking, coupled with advances in methods of quantifying business systems, have enabled managers to scrutinise their business systems afresh.Ann van Ackere, Erik Reimer Larsen and John Morecroft use a well-known logistical system — the ‘beer game’ — to illustrate these re-engineering concepts and tools in a multi-stage production and distribution system involving a single brand of beer. This business game raises the fundamental question of why it is so difficult to match shipments and factory production to consumer demand.The authors conclude that such re-design concepts and tools can be applied successfully to full-scale business problems. Systems thinking, modelling and continuous time simulation can provide the framework for carrying the design process from mapping all the way through to redesign. The most effective CEOs of the future will be those who are competent to create corporate design in which employees are allowed to succeed.     

Tests of independence in incomplete multi-way tables using likelihood functions

Kang (2006) and Kang and Larsen (in press) used the log likelihood function with Lagrangian multipliers for estimation of cell probabilities in two-way incomplete contingency tables. This paper extends results and simulations to three-way and multi-way tables. Numerous studies cross-classify subjects by three or more categorical factors. Constraints on cell probabilities are incorporated through Lagrangian multipliers. Variances of the MLEs are derived from the matrix of second derivatives of the log likelihood with respect to cell probabilities and the Lagrange multiplier. Wald and likelihood ratio tests of independence are derived using the estimates and estimated variances. In simulation results in Kang and Larsen (in press), for data missing at random, maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) produced more efficient estimates of population proportions than either multiple imputation (MI) based on data augmentation or complete case (CC) analysis. Neither MLE nor MI, however, lead to an improvement over CC analysis with respect to power of tests for independence in two-way tables. Results are extended to multidimensional tables with arbitrary patterns of missing data when the variables are recorded on individual subjects. In three-way and higher-way tables, however, there is information relevant for judging independence in partially classified information, as long as two or more variables are jointly observed. Simulations study three-dimensional tables with three patterns of association and two levels of missing information.     

The Role of NGOs in Strengthening the Foundations of South African Democracy

This paper assesses the contribution of South African nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) to the process of democratic consolidation. By drawing on a 1998 survey conducted among 270 NGOs, on several expert interviews, and on an analysis of the structures and programmes of the umbrella body of South African NGOs (Sangoco), the author presents a multi-faceted picture of the activities of the South African NGO sector. The focus is on the NGOs' role as (1) schools of democracy, (2) in bridging societal cleavages, and (3) in providing channels of interest representation for the most marginalized sections of the population. The paper concludes that the contribution of South African NGOs to the process of democratic consolidation is significant, but highly dependent on an enabling external environment.     

Fertility and son preference in Korea

In Korea, total fertility declined from 6.0 in 1960 to 1.6 in 1990, in spite of a strong preference for male offspring. This paper addresses the notion that son preference hinders fertility decline, and examines the effects of patriarchal relations and modernization on fertility using the 1991 Korea National Fertility and Family Health Survey. It was found that women who have a son are less likely to have another child, and that women with a son who do progress to have another child, take longer to conceive the subsequent child. This pattern prevailed for women of parity one, two, and three, and became more pronounced with higher parity. A multivariate analysis showed that preference for male offspring, patriarchy, and modernization are all strong predictors of second, third, and fourth conceptions.