Macroeconomic conditions, institutional factors and demographic structure: What causes welfare caseloads?

Some of the possible determinants of changes observed in welfare caseloads are analysed in this study. The paper attempts to explain variations in welfare caseloads on the basis of four different factors: macroeconomic conditions, interactions with other income maintenance programmes, changes in the programme's parameters and changes in the demographic structure. Different models are tested by applying time series techniques. The data employed are of an administrative nature and cover the whole period that the Madrid programme has been in operation. The results show that the effects of both unemployment and institutional variables are strong and significant. Macroeconomic effects on caseloads could be offset or reinforced by changes in unemployment protection and reforms of the programme's parameters. The significant effects found for the share of lone-parent applicants also show that demographic shifts could shape the trends of welfare rolls regardless of the changes in unemployment or the implementation of institutional reforms. The authors would like to thank Juan Gabriel Rodríguez, Minoru Kunizaki, Miguel Angel Malo and three anonymous referees for their comments and suggestions. Financial and technical support from the Spanish Institute for Fiscal Studies, the Inter-ministerial Commission on Science and Technology (SEC 2001-0746) and the Social Services Department of the Madrid Government is also gratefully acknowledged. Responsible editor: Christian Dustmann.     

Remaining childless in affluent economies: a comparison of France, West Germany, Italy and Spain, 1994–2001 Rester sans enfant dans des sociétés d'abondances: une comparaison de la France, l'Allemagne de l'Ouest et l'Espagne, 19994–2001

This article explores why women delay childbearing and increase their likelihood to remain childless in Spain, Italy, West Germany and France. We take a macro–micro perspective and show that national institutions influence women’s life transitions, in particular partnership and motherhood. For coupled women, we find two alternative modes out of childlessness. In countries with high direct and indirect child costs, like Spain and Italy, entering a male-breadwinner couple or occupying a stable and high-income position facilitates motherhood, while in the French context motherhood is most likely in a dual-earner partnership.      

Economic machine adjustment in the case of product screening

In the course of the rapid growth in automated manufacturing systems automatic control devices become more and more widespread, especially in electronic industry. A survey in US industry performed 1987 by the American Society for Quality Control has shown that 85% of the organisations used screening procedures. In this paper the results of economic adjustment designs for x-control charts in v. Collani et al. (1989) are extended to the case that all of the produced items are subject to acceptance sampling. A simple algorithm is developed for determination of approximate optimal adjustment designs.     

Multigaussian models: The danger of parsimony

Summary MultiGaussian models have the intrinsic property of imposing very little continuity to extreme values. If the variable that is being modeled is hydraulic conductivity and the processes being studied are groundwater flow and mass transport, the absence of continuous paths of extreme values will have a retardation effect in the computed travel times. In the case of radionuclide release of nuclear waste from a deep geological repository, underestimation of travel times may lead to unsafe decision making. To demonstrate the impact of the low continuity of extreme value implicit to multiGaussian modes, travel times are computed in a site similar to Finnsj?n-one of the sites in crystaline rock studied in Sweden-using two stochastic models with the same histogram and covariance, one of them is multiGaussian, and the other is not and displays high connectivity of extreme high values. The results show that the multiGaussian model leads to less conservative results than the non-multiGaussian one. Invoking the parisimony principle to select a multiGaussian model as the simplest model that can be fully described by a mean value and a covariance function should not be justification enough for such selection. If there is not enough data to characterize the connectivity of the extreme values and therefore distriminate whether a multiGaussian model is appropriate or not, less parismonious models must also be considered.     

The social consequences of transformation in Slovakia

This article provides basic information about the transformation process in Slovakia from 1989 to 1994. Presented are some of the major results of the SOCO survey and selected important social topics are analyzed. Sociological information about income, property, consumption, and expenditures of Slovak households is given, and the economic activities of Slovak households and peoples’ attitudes to the transformation process are discussed. The article also addresses who are the winners and losers of the transition in the context of rising poverty and changes in social policy.     

Unbiased estimation of income inequality

In a previous paper Gastwirth shows that a broad family of measures of inequality can be accurately estimated when the tax data are known in groups (more precisely, when we know the number of returns in each of several class intervals and their corresponding average income). In the present paper we show that some measures of the preceding family can be unbiasedly estimated when the tax data are individually known for a sample from the population. Specifically, we construct unbiased estimators of a particular measure of inequality in the samplings with and without replacement, and in the stratified samplings with and without replacement.